大眾懷疑黃金的上漲潛力
在地緣政治緊張局勢降溫和經濟數據發布緩慢的一周中，黃金市場最終將焦點重新轉向美聯儲的利率路徑。
現貨黃金本週開盤略高於 2,300 美元水平，本周大部分時間交易在 30 美元區間。在缺乏其他重要數據的情況下，金價從週四上午公佈的每週失業救濟金數據轉向上漲，該數據出人意料地上漲。
鑑於聯準會主席鮑威爾(Jerome Powell) 表示2024 年仍將降息，黃金交易員認為，高額失業救濟申請數據提高了降息可能性，美國東部時間上午10:30 後金價明確突破2,330 美元，其餘時間穩定攀升週四和整個隔夜交易時段，週五早上 6:30 左右達到每盎司 2,378.56 美元的周高點。週五交易時段，該股繼續保持大部分漲幅。
最新的 Kitco News 每週黃金調查顯示，行業專家對貴金屬表現出新的樂觀態度，而只有一半的零售交易商認為金價下周可能會升值。
Forex.com 資深市場策略師 James Stanley 認為黃金近期技術面有利。
史丹利表示：“空頭有充分的機會重新控制這一趨勢，但自從非農就業報告創下低點以來，多頭一直在捲土重來。” “本週出現了下降楔形的突破，其外觀與牛市旗形類似，這為下週繼續走強打開了大門。”
阿德里安·戴資產管理公司總裁阿德里安·戴認為，未來一週的情況相當平衡。
Day 表示：“黃金的彈性非常強勁，但我懷疑在再次衝擊 2,400 美元後我們會看到回調，因此下週我將維持不變。”
Forexlive.com 貨幣策略主管 Adam Button 對亞洲需求感到擔憂，但認為上升趨勢仍然存在。 「你關於中國黃金購買放緩的故事讓我感到擔憂，但很難反駁價格走勢，」他說。
FxPro 高級市場分析師 Alex Kuptsikevich 表示：“我們應該考慮到，自 2 月以來，黃金報價一直在定期更新歷史高位。” 「我們也可以將 4 月的回落視為從 2 月最低收盤價到 4 月最高收盤價的成長衝動 76.4% 區域的修正。在這種情況下，成長目標變為 2640 美元區域（初始反彈的 161.8%）。
同時，隨著已開發國家高債券殖利率、多國巨額預算赤字以及支持經濟的需要，金價進一步上漲，讓人認為上行潛力有限。 “在黃金和白銀達到新水平之前，我們懷疑新一輪衝擊高點能否成功，並認為有可能再次下跌。”
SIA Wealth Management 首席市場策略師 Colin Cieszynski 表示：“我看好下週的黃金。” 「這是一個有趣的設定：如果美國消費者物價指數（CPI）走高，黃金就會被視為通膨對沖工具。如果美國消費者物價指數（CPI）降溫，降息猜測可能會增加並導緻美元下跌，這也可能對黃金有利。
Gainesville Coins 首席市場分析師 Everett Millman 表示，黃金市場實際上正在超越地緣政治和利率，試圖衡量系統性風險。
美國通膨數據成為焦點，貨幣市場平靜
週一主要貨幣維持穩定，美元兌其他貨幣盤整，市場參與者等待美國通膨數據評估今年降息前景。
在美國 4 月非農就業報告弱於預期以及聯準會宣布政策之後，今年降息的預期有所上升。
CME 的 FedWatch 工具顯示，市場已消化聯準會 9 月會議開始一定程度降息的可能性為 61.2%，預計總共降息約 50 個基點。
但聯準會官員上週的言論各不相同，發言者就利率是否足夠高進行了爭論。週五的一項調查顯示，消費者通膨預期大幅上升，可能會使對話更加複雜。
西太平洋銀行經濟學家在一份客戶報告中寫道：“通膨預期的上升可能反映了通貨緊縮進程的停滯，並且無助於緩解物價壓力。”
最近的數據顯示經濟正在放緩，投資者正在尋求確認通膨的黏性有多大。
本週市場將有機會，週二將公佈生產者物價指數（PPI），週三將公佈消費者物價指數（CPI）。
聯準會主席鮑威爾也將於週二出席在阿姆斯特丹舉行的外國銀行家協會會議。
City Index 高級市場分析師 Matt Simpson 表示：“為了讓美元真正落下，傳入的數據需要表明通膨下降，而不僅僅是零星的疲軟。”
“如果本月通膨數據再次走高，肯定會抵消成長放緩和就業數據略有疲軟的影響。”
衡量美元兌一籃子貨幣的美元指數基本持平於105.34，繼連續兩週下跌後上週首次出現週上漲。
Expect to see some consolidation next week as gold price is unable to hold gains above $2,400
Gold and silver remain in robust uptrends, but investors should prepare to see prices consolidate next week as its recent momentum appears to have peaked, according to some analysts.
Both gold and silver saw renewed volatility on Friday as the precious metals could not hold their significant gains early in the day. At one point, gold prices were up more than 4% on the day, peaking at $2,448.80 an ounce. However, the yellow metal is now looking to end the week close to where it started. June gold futures last traded at $2,355.60 an ounce, up 0.4% from last Friday.
Meanwhile, silver has managed to maintain its outperformance against gold, even as it gives up similar gains Friday afternoon. Silver peaked Friday morning at $29.905 an ounce, an intra-day three-year high. However, as the dust settles, it looks to end the week holding support above $28 an ounce. May silver futures last traded at $28.105 an ounce, up 2% from last week.
Although gold could not hold its ground above $2,400 an ounce, analysts note that it remains relatively strong as it prepares to notch another record weekly close in its belt. The new record comes even as markets start to price out a potential rate cut in June after March inflation came in higher than expected.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, markets see only a 27% chance of a rate cut in June, down from a 50% price last week and 68% price a month ago. However, analysts note that although the Federal Reserve could delay the start of its easing cycle, it is unlikely they will be raising interest rates again, which means that real interest rates can still move lower, a positive environment for gold.
While gold remains well supported, some analysts have said the rally is becoming over-extended.
"I think the momentum is still strong, but at the same time, it is not right to be greedy, and given the stellar rally we have seen in the gold price, we think it is wise to book some profit," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
Philip Newman, Director and Founding Partner of Metals Focus, also said it might be a good idea for investors to take some of their profits off the table. He said the gold market is due for some consolidation after this unprecedented run in record territory.
"We don't expect to see a significant pullback, but we do think a short-term correction makes sense at these levels," he said.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that although the price momentum is extreme, he is looking through the recent volatility and is focused on the broader trends driving prices.
He noted that gold remains well supported in part due to rising inflation fears and growing uncertainty over the health of the global economy.
"Right now, the market is looking for something to break before it has actually broken, and it leaves the market exposed to a correction. Am I going to take chips off the table? I don't think so as I'm in it for the long run," he said. "I am still wondering what may happen if the economic data starts to weaken and inflation remains bid. That would justify gold's performance."
While everyone focuses on gold in U.S. dollar terms, it has made record gains against all major currencies. Hansen pointed out that gold is up 20% against the euro, 22% against the Australian dollar, and 26% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategies and forex at Tastylive.com, said that while he likes gold and silver, he will not be chasing the market at current levels. He added that he is looking to buy on dips.
"The Federal Reserve has been telling us that their next move is going to be a cut even though we see solid economic growth and stubborn inflation. This will drive real yields higher, and that is a positive environment for gold and silver," he said.
