12月升息風險，金銀價格暴跌
週三美股尾盤交易中，現貨 黃金和 白銀價格大幅下跌。聯準會會議紀要顯示年底前仍有可能再次升息，而高企的長期國債收益率和美元走強則給無收益金屬價格帶來壓力。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,109.90美元，當日下跌1.28%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司59.670美元，下跌2.55%。
受全球殖利率攀升的影響，北美股市收低，主要股指從歷史高點回落。標普500指數下跌17.16點，跌幅0.2%，收在7801.77點；道瓊工業指數下跌341.41點，跌幅0.7%，收在51179.87點；那斯達克指數下跌61.20點，跌幅0.2%，收在27538.69點；羅素2000指數下跌37.09點，跌幅1.3%，收在2793.20點。
受油價上漲、債券殖利率上升以及法國財政壓力等因素影響，歐洲股市也大幅收跌，銀行股和週期性股票受到衝擊。斯托克歐洲600指數下跌1.00%，收在630.25點；德國DAX指數下跌1.35%，收在25104.36點；法國CAC 40指數下跌1.22%，收在7769.21點；英國富時100指數下跌0.80%，收在10457.38點；義大利富時MIB指數下跌2.51%，收在49972.25點。
市場對10月的鷹派情緒減弱，但仍面臨12月緊縮的風險。9月非農就業人數僅增加2.9萬人，失業率維持在4.2%，平均時薪較上月成長0.1%，而7月和8月的非農就業人數合計下調了6萬人，降低了10月份升息的緊迫性。然而，週一公佈的ISM服務業價格指數升至74.0，美聯儲會議紀要顯示，大多數官員仍預期年底前會再次加息，10年期美國國債收益率一度達到5.36%，在390億美元的10年期國債拍賣強勁結束後回落至5.28%附近。此次拍賣最終成交價為5.30%，認購倍數為2.77，有助於穩定債券市場，但不足以扭轉黃金面臨的壓力。
接下來的考試包括：週四美東時間上午8:30公佈的每周初請失業金人數、週四舉行的220億美元30年期美國國債拍賣、週五美東時間上午10:00公佈的10月份消費者信心指數初值，以及下周公布的9月份消費者物價指數（CPI）。疲軟的勞動市場或通膨數據將透過驗證就業成長放緩來提振金價；而強勢的通膨預期或疲軟的長期債券需求則會使殖利率曲線對金屬不利。
霍爾木茲海峽和美伊局勢仍未解決，但對石油市場的直接影響在收盤時減弱。海上安全消息人士追蹤到，9月28日至10月5日這一周，霍爾木茲海峽附近至少發生了12起針對石油、液化天然氣和液化石油氣運輸船的襲擊事件，這是自伊朗戰爭爆發以來單週襲擊事件數量最高的一次，此外，一艘懸掛在巴拿馬國的油輪穿越該水道時遭到襲擊。儘管如此，由於交易員關注中東地區石油流動的恢復、緊急庫存加速釋放以及市場預期霍爾木茲海峽約90%的石油流動仍在進行，油價最終收跌。布蘭特原油結算價為每桶100.20美元，下跌0.4%；WTI原油結算價為每桶88.28美元，下跌1.3%。原油價格下跌削弱了收益率和美元的短期通膨壓力，但持續不斷的油輪襲擊、保險成本以及海灣航線風險，使得黃金價格保持防禦性，並使能源價格的波動性仍處於美聯儲的反應機制之內。
美元從18個月高點小幅回落
週四亞洲交易時段開盤，美元在交投清淡中維持在一年半以來的最高水平附近。此前，聯準會公開市場委員會鷹派會議紀錄顯示，聯準會決策者認為通膨是其經濟前景面臨的最大風險。
美元指數（衡量美元兌一籃子六種貨幣的強弱）在周三上漲0.3%後，穩定在102.23。受上週所謂「解放日」關稅公告引發的市場動盪影響，美元目前距離2025年4月9日以來的最高水準僅差幾個基點。
聯準會決策者在9月15日至16日的聯準會會議上一致投票決定將利率提高0.25個百分點，但周三公佈的會議紀要顯示，他們對於這樣做的理由存在分歧。
西太平洋銀行分析師寫道：“聯邦公開市場委員會的會議紀要強化了美聯儲9月份加息時的鷹派基調，大多數與會者仍然認為進一步收緊貨幣政策是合適的，幾乎所有人都認為在會議召開時通脹風險偏向上行。”
會議紀要並未改變市場對聯準會本月稍後會議不會升息的預期。根據芝加哥商品交易所集團（CME Group）的FedWatch工具顯示，聯邦基金期貨市場隱含的聯準會在10月28日結束的為期兩天的會議上升息25個基點的機率為19%，與前一日持平。
週四公佈的數據顯示，日本8月經常帳盈餘為4.062兆日圓（257億美元），高於經濟學家先前預測的3.19兆日圓盈餘中位數。受此影響，美元兌日圓下跌0.2%，至157.815日圓。
Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally
Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.
The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.
