聯準會即將降息繼續支撐金價
黃金價格仍支撐在每盎司 2500 美元上方。在各國央行繼續將貴金屬添加到資產負債表的支撐下。此外，地緣政治熱點擔憂導致避險需求激增，零售需求穩定。這些因素結合起來，在金價歷史最高值附近創造了強有力的價格支撐。
截至美國東部時間下午 6:00，在考慮到今天 8.70 美元（即 0.34%）的淨收益後，最活躍的 12 月黃金期貨合約固定在 2535.50 美元。
儘管美元走強，今天的漲幅還是溫和的。美元目前上漲 0.44%，該指數定於 101.651。
週五美國勞工部就業報告低於預期後，股價下跌 20 美元，隨後今日上漲。雖然經濟學家預測 8 月將新增 16 萬個就業崗位，但實際數字為 14.2 萬個。再加上 6 月和 7 月就業報告的向下修正，顯示勞動力疲軟已經有一段時間了。這可能對貨幣政策決策產生重大影響。
根據CME的FedWatch工具，聯準會在9月18日FOMC會議上降息50個基點的可能性在上週維持在30%。無論聯準會下週降息幅度如何，聯準會的貨幣政策都準備好從先前的限制性貨幣政策轉向寬鬆的貨幣政策。
這將透過今年多次降息來實現。目前，經濟學家預計聯準會將在今年剩餘的公開市場委員會會議上降息 1% 至 1.5%。
市場參與者將關注週三公佈的八月份消費者物價指數和周四的生產者物價指數數據，希望獲得有關聯準會貨幣政策寬鬆路徑的見解和進一步線索。
除了主席鮑威爾之外，其他聯準會官員也都表示聯準會即將採取轉向行動。紐約聯儲行長約翰威廉斯表示，鑑於通膨進展和勞動市場降溫，聯準會現在降息是合適的。
ING分析師表示，“貴金屬的上行反彈才剛剛開始，數十年來最受期待的美國降息將為9月份金價帶來新的動力。”
在美國通膨測試之前，貨幣謹慎行事
美元週二早盤持穩，日圓小幅脫離一個月高位，投資者等待美國通膨數據，並重新評估聯準會明年開始大幅降息的預期。
週五發布的好壞參半的勞工報告未能明確說明聯準會是否會在 9 月 17 日至 18 日的政策會議上定期降息 25 個基點，還是大幅降息 50 個基點。
儘管聯準會明確表示就業比通膨更受關注，但交易員目前正在等待週三的美國消費者物價指數報告，以獲取進一步的政策線索。路透社調查顯示，8月整體CPI年增0.2%，與上月持平。
ING經濟學家表示，由於非農就業數據未能說服聯準會降息50個基點，市場目前正關注美國通膨數據，以了解聯準會降息的步伐。
“很明顯，經濟成長正在失去動力，市場現在似乎關注經濟最終會軟著陸還是硬著陸。”
投資者還將關注週二晚些時候備受期待的美國總統電視辯論，這場辯論可能會對 11 月的大選產生重大影響。
美元兌日圓上漲0.1%，至143.30日元，遠離週五觸及的一個月低點141.75。英鎊最新價格為 1.3061 美元，盤中早些時候曾觸及近三週低點 1.3058 美元。
衡量美元兌六種貨幣的美元指數週一上漲 0.4% 至 101.69。由於交易員對降息的預期發生轉變，該指數上週下跌 0.5%。
CME FedWatch 工具顯示，市場目前已充分消化下週降息 25 個基點的影響，其中降息 50 個基點的價格為 30%，低於上週五高達 50% 的水平。
盛寶外匯策略主管查魯·查納納(Charu Chanana) 表示，弱於預期的報告可能會增強市場對降息50 個基點的預期，但穩定的數據可能會讓25 個基點與50 個基點的爭論懸而未決。
“總體而言，美元預計將橫盤走高，因為目前美聯儲的寬鬆預期仍然顯得過度。”
對於 2024 年，交易員預計寬鬆幅度為 110 個基點，高於其餘三次會議的約 100 個基點。
聯準會政策制定者上週表示，他們準備開始一系列降息，並指出，如果不採取政策轉變，勞動市場降溫可能會變得更加可怕。
Investors see value in gold as recession fears and rate cuts drive prices higher
After a solid rally to new all-time highs, the gold market is ending the week on a volatile note as recession fears have spooked equity markets, forcing some investors to sell their gold to raise capital.
While the precious metal could still see some selling pressure in the near term, many analysts have said that in the current market environment, investors should look at buying the dip.
The gold market has seen solid gains since the start of the week after holding critical initial support at $2,400 an ounce. Momentum picked up on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank could start cutting interest rates by September.
Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and disappointing economic data helped drive gold prices to a new all-time high above $2,500 an ounce. Those gains saw some brief follow-through buying Friday after a significantly disappointing nonfarm payrolls report showed that 114,000 jobs were created last month. The U.S. economy saw the slowest pace of job growth in four years.
At the same time, the unemployment rate jumped sharply to 4.3%, versus economists' expectations for an unchanged reading at 4.1%. The unemployment rate has jumped to its highest level since September 2021.
While December gold futures pushed solidly above $2,500 an ounce, the gains proved to be short-lived as recession fears surged through the marketplace.
“Investors were caught off guard with this equity selloff. There were expectations that there could be a rotation into other sectors, but everything is down today. Investors are forced to sell their profitable gold positions to support their equity bets,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. “I am not worried about gold as this selling will prove to be short-lived. I expect this dip will be bought.”
Chris Vecchio, Head of Futures Strategies and Forex at Tastylive.com, said that he also sees any weakness in gold as a buying opportunity. He dismissed the weakness in gold as investors just raising cash.
“If you ask me what gold will do next week, I think it will be extremely volatile and could be 2% or 3% down. If we're talking about where gold's gonna go over the next quarter, next two quarters, through the end of the year, um, I think history gives us a guide, and we should be looking up,” he said.
Vecchio said that historically, during a recession, gold is one of the best-performing assets in global financial markets.
Recession fears were acute Friday as economists explained that the rise in the unemployment rate triggered the Sahm Recession Indicator. According to the rule, the start of a recession can be determined when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.
Not only did the disappointing employment data trigger an important recession indicator, but analysts said that it shows the Federal Reserve has made a policy error by waiting too long to cut interest rates.
Robert Minter, Director of Investment Strategy at abrdn, said that after Friday’s employment numbers, it’s unlikely the U.S. central bank can engineer a soft landing.
