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2024/6/14

黃金新聞

世界黃金協會尋求創建亞洲黃金中心

上週有消息稱中國央行並未增加其黃金持有量,這令市場感到恐慌;然而,隨著世界黃金協會尋求在新加坡建立新的黃金中心,中國仍將是市場的主導者。

本週早些時候,世界黃金協會和新加坡金銀市場協會宣布,他們正在與當地利益相關者合作,探索發展新加坡在全球黃金市場中的作用。
「亞洲作為最大黃金購買來源地的迅速崛起已經轉移了市場的重心,這為亞洲建立國際央行亞太區主管兼全球主管範紹凱在接受 CNBC 採訪時表示,隨著亞洲央行看到對官方黃金儲備中心的需求不斷增長,新加坡有望成為黃金市場的未來領導者。範補充說,他可能會看到新加坡黃金市場可以與倫敦和紐約等其他國際中心相提並論。此舉推出之際,世界黃金協會發現,由於消費者希望保護自己的財富和購買力,整個亞洲的黃金需求大幅增加。同時,亞洲需求正受到中國零售消費者和央行永不滿足的需求的推動。儘管中國央行上個月沒有宣布增加黃金儲備,但已連續18個月購買黃金,這是有史以​​來最長的瘋狂購買行為。從新加坡的黃金儲備來看,新加坡金融管理局是今年迄今第六大黃金買家。它也是唯一一家增加黃金儲備的已開發市場央行。道富環球投資顧問公司首席黃金策略師George Milling-Stanley在接受Kitco News採訪時表示,他預計中國將繼續購買黃金,儘管其購買量將不如過去一年半那麼穩定。
米林-史丹利也表示,他預計亞洲需求將繼續在黃金市場中發揮主導作用。

「遠東、中東、印度、次大陸等地區的投資需求一直對價格產生重大影響,而且增長得越多,影響力就越大, 」他說。 「我研究黃金的50 年來,新興市場的人口成長速度最快。我一直關注黃金,新興市場的經濟成長一直是最快的。這兩個因素將決定誰獲得最多的金牌。

財經新聞

即使通膨降溫,美元仍因鷹派聯準會而上漲

儘管美國5月份生產者物價通膨報告疲軟,但聯準會在周三會議結束時採取強硬基調後,美元週四上漲。
週四的數據顯示,美國 5 月生產者物價意外下跌,整體生產者物價指數 (PPI) 繼 4 月未經修正的 0.5% 上漲後,上個月下跌 0.2%。核心價格較上月上漲 0.5% 後持平。
週三公佈的美國 5 月消費者物價指數 (CPI) 低於經濟學家的預期,導緻美元大幅拋售。

綜合而言,CPI 和 PPI 的發布使得聯準會首選的通膨指標個人消費支出 (PCE) 也可能顯示出物價壓力減弱的跡象。
馬克錢德勒(Marc Chandler) 表示:「今天的生產者物價指數(PPI) 是在消費者物價指數(CPI) 低於預期之後出現的,當我們在月底得到該數據時,核心PCE 平減指數可能會有所疲軟。
但對通膨降溫的樂觀情緒不足以壓低美元匯率。

聯準會官員週三出人意料地預測今年只會降息一次,並將降息開始時間推遲到 12 月,美元因此反彈。
聯準會主席鮑威爾表示,政策制定者願意維持利率不變,直到經濟發出明確的信號,表明需要採取其他措施 - 通過更令人信服的價格壓力下降或失業率上升。
週四的其他數據顯示,上周美國新申請失業救濟人數增加至10個月來新高。
美元指數最新上漲0.49%至105.20。週二觸及 105.46 的四週高位,週三公佈 CPI 數據後下跌 1%。

Market Commentary

Expect to see some consolidation next week as gold price is unable to hold gains above $2,400

Gold and silver remain in robust uptrends, but investors should prepare to see prices consolidate next week as its recent momentum appears to have peaked, according to some analysts.
Both gold and silver saw renewed volatility on Friday as the precious metals could not hold their significant gains early in the day. At one point, gold prices were up more than 4% on the day, peaking at $2,448.80 an ounce. However, the yellow metal is now looking to end the week close to where it started. June gold futures last traded at $2,355.60 an ounce, up 0.4% from last Friday.
Meanwhile, silver has managed to maintain its outperformance against gold, even as it gives up similar gains Friday afternoon. Silver peaked Friday morning at $29.905 an ounce, an intra-day three-year high. However, as the dust settles, it looks to end the week holding support above $28 an ounce. May silver futures last traded at $28.105 an ounce, up 2% from last week.
Although gold could not hold its ground above $2,400 an ounce, analysts note that it remains relatively strong as it prepares to notch another record weekly close in its belt. The new record comes even as markets start to price out a potential rate cut in June after March inflation came in higher than expected.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, markets see only a 27% chance of a rate cut in June, down from a 50% price last week and 68% price a month ago. However, analysts note that although the Federal Reserve could delay the start of its easing cycle, it is unlikely they will be raising interest rates again, which means that real interest rates can still move lower, a positive environment for gold.

While gold remains well supported, some analysts have said the rally is becoming over-extended.
"I think the momentum is still strong, but at the same time, it is not right to be greedy, and given the stellar rally we have seen in the gold price, we think it is wise to book some profit," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
Philip Newman, Director and Founding Partner of Metals Focus, also said it might be a good idea for investors to take some of their profits off the table. He said the gold market is due for some consolidation after this unprecedented run in record territory.
"We don't expect to see a significant pullback, but we do think a short-term correction makes sense at these levels," he said.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that although the price momentum is extreme, he is looking through the recent volatility and is focused on the broader trends driving prices.
He noted that gold remains well supported in part due to rising inflation fears and growing uncertainty over the health of the global economy.
"Right now, the market is looking for something to break before it has actually broken, and it leaves the market exposed to a correction. Am I going to take chips off the table? I don't think so as I'm in it for the long run," he said. "I am still wondering what may happen if the economic data starts to weaken and inflation remains bid. That would justify gold's performance."
While everyone focuses on gold in U.S. dollar terms, it has made record gains against all major currencies. Hansen pointed out that gold is up 20% against the euro, 22% against the Australian dollar, and 26% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategies and forex at Tastylive.com, said that while he likes gold and silver, he will not be chasing the market at current levels. He added that he is looking to buy on dips.
"The Federal Reserve has been telling us that their next move is going to be a cut even though we see solid economic growth and stubborn inflation. This will drive real yields higher, and that is a positive environment for gold and silver," he said.

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