金價走弱，但隨著美元指數走弱，收復早前跌幅
黃金和白銀價格在周四美國午盤交易中走低，因近期上漲後獲利回吐和下行價格調整。然而，黃金已收復早盤交易中一半以上的每日跌幅。美元已從日內高點回落，當天走低，支撐了一些黃金買盤興趣。儘管如此，今天美國國債殖利率的上升限制了購買興趣。 2 月黃金最後下跌 7.50 美元，至 2,763.40 美元。 3 月白銀下跌 0.645 美元，至 30.775 美元。
週五日本央行將公佈利率決定。市場預計日本央行將再次升息至多25個基點。 2024 年 6 月，日本央行升息 15 個基點。下週歐洲央行和聯準會將召開貨幣政策會議。預計歐洲央行將降息25個基點，而聯準會將維持利率不變。
今日主要外圍市場美元指數午盤小幅下跌。紐約商業交易所原油期貨價格走低，交易價格約每桶 74.60 美元。目前基準10年期美國公債殖利率為4.65%。
從技術上講，2 月黃金期貨多頭具有穩固的整體近期技術優勢。每日長條圖上的價格呈上升趨勢。
美元穩定，股市攀升，所有人都在關注川普2.0
世界股市週二上漲，美元在前一天暴跌後上漲，原因是唐納德·特朗普重返白宮帶來了關於關稅的好壞參半的信息，並凸顯了市場對貿易政策的不安。
在川普表示他正在考慮最早於 2 月 1 日對鄰國徵收 25% 的關稅後，加幣和墨西哥比索首當其沖地受到市場波動的影響。
不過，令一些投資人鬆了一口氣的是，川普在第二任總統任期之初並未宣布更全面的關稅舉措，這支撐了10年期公債殖利率的回調。
道明證券分析師在一份報告中表示，“市場仍在消化川普發布的一系列行政命令，但總體上仍然有一種鬆了一口氣的感覺。”
MSCI 世界股票指數(.MIWD00000PUS)，開啟新分頁上漲0.7%，美股大多走高。標普 500 指數(.SPX)，開啟新分頁那斯達克指數(.NDX)上漲 0.9%，開啟新分頁道瓊指數(.DJI)上漲 0.6%，開啟新分頁上漲1.2%。
美元上漲導致墨西哥比索早些時候下跌超過 1%，而加元則跌至五年低點 0.689 美元，儘管拋售後來有所緩和。
北歐聯合銀行(Nordea)首席策略師揚馮格里奇(Jan Von Gerich)表示，投資者不應認為美國關稅已永遠避免。
「我們不應該對此太過得意，他沒有開始徵收關稅這一事實並不意味著以後不會徵收關稅，」他說。 “對於全球股市來說，我認為現在一切都與川普有關。”
亞洲股市隔夜小漲後，歐洲股市表現平淡，投資人和政府因歐盟和中國暫時規避關稅而感到欣慰。
歐洲大陸 STOXX 600 指數(.STOXX)，開啟新分頁上漲 0.4%，而 MSCI 亞洲（日本除外）股票指數(.MIAPJ0000PUS)，開啟新分頁添加0.3%。
衡量美元兌六種貨幣的美元指數持平於 108.01。
該指數早前曾升至108.79，但未能收復週一跌幅1.2%的跌幅，創下自2023年11月以來的最大單日跌幅。
歐元兌美元收盤持平於 1.04200 美元，前一天上漲 1.42%。
2025 U.S. dollar index preview: More upside likely
The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies weighted against the greenback. The USDX is an important “outside market” that has a near-daily price influence on other markets, including the precious metals. The USDX is also a good barometer of the health of the U.S. economy, which is the largest in the world.
The USDX recently hit a two-year high and is trending higher on the charts. In fact, the monthly chart for the USDX shows prices have been in an uptrend since 2008. It’s important to note that trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. While the uptrend in the USDX is a mature one, at 16 years old, there are no strong, early technical clues to suggest the index will put in a major market top any time soon.
A Federal Reserve that has very likely become more tentative on further cutting U.S. interest rates in the coming new year will also work in favor of the USDX bulls.
The U.S. economy may have its problems in 2025, including the prospects of stubborn price inflation and/or headwinds from any new trade tariffs initiated by the incoming Trump presidential administration. However, it’s likely the U.S. currency will remain “the cleanest dirty shirt in the drawer” of other major currencies. The U.S. dollar also still holds the title of the safest currency in the world, so any new geopolitical unrest would also likely support the USDX.
Look for currency traders to continue to sell the majors (Euro, British pound, Canada dollar, Australian dollar, Japanese yen) against the U.S. dollar, as well as the periphery currencies, in the coming new year.
Importantly, in 2025 I also look for the gold and silver markets to become less sensitive (less bearish) to the U.S. dollar appreciating on the foreign exchange market. On a longer-term basis, this phenomenon has been apparent in recent years. Just look at a longer-term gold chart and a longer-term USDX chart—both are trending up.
