市場盤整，金價兩面持平
週四美國午盤，金價接近穩定，銀價穩步上漲。美元指數隔夜跌至三年半低點，限制了黃金的拋售興趣。中東緊張局勢緩和提振了風險偏好，也限制了買盤興趣。 8月黃金期貨最新持穩3,343.00美元/盎司。 7月白銀期貨最新上漲0.449美元，至36.545美元/盎司。
黃金市場似乎正在盤整、回補，交易員正在等待新的基本面發展來推動市場行動。
由於本週避險情緒消退，美國股指今日上漲。以色列與伊朗的停火協議目前看來仍在維持。
今日關鍵的外部市場表現為美元指數大幅下跌，觸及三年半低點。紐約商品交易所原油期貨價格上漲，目前交易價格約每桶66.00美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前約為4.27%。
從技術面來看，8月黃金期貨多頭擁有整體近期技術優勢。多頭的下一個上行價格目標是收盤價高於6月高點3,476.30美元的堅固阻力位。
美元跌至新低
由於對美國聯邦儲備委員會未來獨立性的擔憂削弱了人們對該國貨幣政策穩健性的信心，美元兌歐元週四跌至三年半新低。
根據《華爾街日報》報道，美國總統川普曾考慮在9月或10月之前選定並宣布聯準會主席鮑威爾的繼任者，以削弱其地位。
InTouch Capital Markets 亞洲外匯主管 Kieran Williams 表示：“市場可能會對任何提前任命鮑威爾繼任者的舉動感到憤怒，特別是如果這一決定看起來是出於政治動機。”
他補充說：“此舉將引發人們對美聯儲獨立性可能受到侵蝕的質疑，並可能削弱其信譽。如果真是這樣，它可能會重新調整利率預期，引發對美元頭寸的重新評估。”
川普週三稱鮑威爾沒有大幅降低利率“很糟糕”，而聯準會主席告訴參議院，政策必須謹慎，因為總統的關稅計劃對通膨構成風險。
市場已將聯準會在 7 月下次會議上降息的可能性從一周前的 12% 上調至 25%，並預計年底前將降息 64 個基點，高於上週五的 46 個基點左右。
美元全線下滑，歐元上漲 0.2%，達到 1.1687 美元，為 2021 年 10 月以來的最高水準。下一個圖表目標是 1.1692 美元和 1.1909 美元。
英鎊兌美元上漲0.2%，至1.3690美元，為2022年1月以來的最高水準；美元兌瑞士法郎則跌至2011年以來的最低水準0.8033。瑞士法郎兌日圓也創下180.55左右的歷史新高。
美元兌日圓下跌0.2%，至144.89，美元指數跌至2022年初以來的最低點97.491。
隨著 7 月 9 日貿易協定最後期限臨近，川普混亂的關稅政策也重新成為人們關注的焦點。
摩根大通週三警告稱，關稅衝擊將減緩美國經濟成長並推高通膨，導緻美國經濟衰退的可能性達到 40%。
摩根大通分析師在報告中寫道：“進一步負面衝擊的風險上升，我們預計美國關稅稅率將會上升。這些事態發展的結果是，我們的基準情景包含了美國例外主義階段的結束。”
Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index
Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”
Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.
Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”
