黃金、白銀面臨拋售壓力
黃金價格今日大幅下跌，觸及三週低點，白銀價格也大幅下挫。兩種金屬的價格均出現劇烈的日內波動，對於從事短期期貨交易的多空雙方而言，這種劇烈的價格震盪行情都可能造成災難性後果。 2月黃金期貨最新下跌52.90美元，每盎司4,333.20美元。 3月白銀期貨下跌6.85美元，報每盎司71.09美元。
本週五，1月2日，可能是黃金和白銀成熟牛市迄今最重要的交易日。黃金和白銀市場價格週五的收盤價——更接近週內高點還是周內低點——很可能決定未來幾週這兩種金屬的交易基調和價格走勢。
週二金銀價格在周一大幅下跌後出現大幅反彈，但今日再次大幅回落。其他商品期貨交易員正密切關注金屬期貨市場及其劇烈的每日價格波動，預示著看跌趨勢。芝加哥商品交易所集團（CME Group）宣布，將一週內第二次提高貴金屬期貨保證金。 CME在聲明中表示，黃金、白銀、鉑金和鈀金合約的保證金將於今日收盤後上調。 CME稱，此舉是基於對「市場波動性的評估，以確保充足的抵押品覆蓋」。
今日主要外部市場方面，美元指數小漲。原油價格略為下跌，交易價格在每桶58美元左右。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前為4.138%。
從技術層面來看，2月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上行目標是突破合約/歷史高點4,584.00美元的強勁阻力位。
美元在聯準會會議後維持漲幅
週二，美元走強，在聯準會12月會議紀要公佈後，美元繼續保持漲勢，投資者試圖解讀貨幣政策的走向。
年底假期導致交易量清淡，分析師也提醒不要過度關注近幾日的市場波動。儘管如此，美元仍有望創下2017年以來最糟糕的表現，跌幅接近10%。
根據聯準會12月9日至10日為期兩天的會議紀要，該央行在就美國經濟目前面臨的風險進行了深入細緻的辯論後，才同意降低利率。
12 月會議後發布的新預測顯示，聯準會預計明年只會降息一次，而新政策聲明中的措辭表明，聯準會目前可能會維持利率不變，直到新的數據顯示通膨再次下降或失業率上升超過預期。
市場目前預期明年將降息約 50 個基點。
「聯準會的政策方向不明，因此你會看到美元和匯率、利率以及國債利率都反映了這一點，所以市場目前並沒有太多可操作的空間，」紐約FX Street高級分析師Joseph Trevisani表示。
“如果我們想在新的一年裡觀察美元、其他貨幣甚至利率的走勢，我們必須開始關注經濟，看看經濟狀況是否會影響這些趨勢。”
衡量美元兌一籃子貨幣匯率的美元指數上漲0.19%至98.19，歐元當日下跌0.18%至1.1751美元，但今年以來仍上漲超過13%。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
