金價上漲4%，突破每盎司4,500美元
30年期公債殖利率下跌，短期利率上升，美元跌至三個月低點。聯準會當天下午公佈的會議紀錄顯示，官員卻在爭論採取相反的政策。
美國財政部週三採取措施，以抑制自身的長期借貸成本。
金價上漲185.50美元，至每盎司4518.90美元，觸及4524.50美元，突破了此前數週以來一直徘徊的低位。美元跌至三個月來的最低點。
白銀 上漲 5.34%，至每盎司 66.57 美元。鈀金 上漲 4.18%。
在公佈季度回購計劃兩週後，財政部周三表示，將“至少將10年期至30年期證券的流動性支持回購操作規模擴大一倍”，該部門在一份聲明中表示。
財政部將其描述為維護保養。
聲明稱，此次增發「反映了財政部希望在長期名義債券領域提供更大流動性支持的願望，這些領域一直以來都得到市場參與者的大力支持」。
30年期公債殖利率下跌10個基點至5.18%，從2007年以來的最高水準回落。 10年期公債殖利率下跌6個基點至4.65%。
殖利率曲線的前端走勢則相反。三個月期、六個月期及兩年期公債殖利率當日均上漲。
財政部沒有說明回購資金將如何籌措。通常情況下，財政部會透過發行國庫券來應對資金波動。
回購長期債券並以短期債券取代以壓低長期利率，這並非什麼新概念。這正是「扭轉操作」（Operation Twist）背後的運作機制。聯準會在1960年代初期以及金融危機後都曾實施過這項操作，即購買長期債券並向短期債券注資以拉平殖利率曲線。
全球債券市場就財政和通膨風險向各國政府發出警告
由於政府債務膨脹和地緣政治因素，週二美國對德國和日本的長期借貸成本達到數十年來的最高水平，這提高了企業和家庭的借貸成本，並使政策變得更加複雜。
由於美國總統川普的政策——從關稅到戰爭——顛覆了全球秩序，債券市場正進入一個通膨和利率前景更加不確定、上行風險更大的時代。
已開發國家的債務水準正逼近越來越難以持續的臨界點，美國債務總額已接近40兆美元。伊朗戰爭持續不斷，推高油價和通貨膨脹，並衝擊全球經濟成長。
此外，科技公司為建設人工智慧基礎設施而進行的大規模借貸，與對政府公債的需求形成競爭。
凱投宏觀首席市場經濟學家喬納斯·戈爾特曼表示，債券殖利率近期的飆升「表明投資者對財政揮霍失去了耐心」。
但他表示，這“完全在意料之中：幾個主要經濟體的財政前景堪憂，而政界人士似乎並沒有什麼意願來解決這個問題。”
週二早些時候，受油價重回90美元以上、加劇通膨擔憂以及美伊和平希望破滅的影響，全球規模最大、系統重要性最高的政府債券市場——美國30年期公債殖利率觸及2007年以來的最高水平。午後交易中，收益率有所回落。
高收益率可能會對家庭、企業、金融市場和聯邦預算造成壓力。
道明銀行分析師根納季‧戈德堡在一份研究報告中寫道：「我們認為長期債券市場已經遭受了『千刀萬剮』之苦。」他列舉了一系列利率上升的原因。他寫道：“投資者信心不足可能導致收益率在短期內持續承壓。”
Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally
Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.
The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.
