獲利回吐抑制了黃金早盤的漲幅
週一美股午盤交易時段，黃金價格基本上持穩，早盤大幅上漲後回吐，主要受獲利回吐和短期期貨交易者多頭平倉疲軟的影響。白銀則基本上維持了隔夜的強勁漲幅。 2月黃金期貨價格最新下跌0.90美元，每盎司4,327.00美元。 3月白銀期貨價格上漲1.273美元，報每盎司63.28美元。
有報導稱，俄烏戰爭和平談判可能會取得更多進展，這或許會降低市場整體的避險情緒，並對黃金價格構成壓力。一些報道稱，今天在柏林舉行的會談取得了進一步進展。
隔夜全球股市漲跌互現。美國股指午盤走弱，回吐早盤漲幅。
根據彭博社報道，中國中金集團(CMOC Group)斥資10億美元收購巴西Equinox Gold Corp.的業務，進一步拓展其在貴金屬領域的佈局。交易完成後，中金集團將完全擁有巴西的多個礦場或礦藏，Equinox將獲得9億美元現金，以及最高可達1.15億美元的或有付款。該交易預計將於明年第一季完成，屆時中金集團將擁有Aurizona、RDM、Fazenda和Santa Luz四座礦山，這些礦山的年黃金總產量將達到一定規模。
今日主要外部市場方面，美元指數小幅下跌。原油價格走低，交易價格約每桶56.50美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前為4.184%。
從技術層面來看，2月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上行目標是突破合約/歷史高點4,433美元的強勁阻力位。
美元走軟
週二亞洲交易時段開盤，美元跌至接近兩個月低點，市場正等待一系列經濟數據的公佈，包括延遲發布的11月美國就業報告。
衡量美元兌一籃子六種主要貨幣強弱的美元指數下跌0.2%，至98.261，接近10月17日以來的最低水準。
由於美國歷史上持續時間最長的政府停擺導致數據收集延遲，美國勞工統計局將在稍後發布期待已久的10 月和 11 月綜合就業報告，同時也將發布一系列初步製造業指標。
匯豐銀行全球外匯研究主管保羅·麥克爾在一份研究報告中寫道，就業數據「將有助於我們了解聯邦政府停擺期間美國就業狀況的最終走向」。他還表示，“美聯儲上週的表態讓我們確信，美元整體走勢尚未完全擺脫困境。”
根據芝加哥商品交易所集團的 FedWatch 工具顯示，聯邦基金期貨隱含的聯準會在 1 月 28 日的下次會議上維持利率不變的機率為 75.6%，與前一天持平。
本週市場將不得不應對一系列其他政策催化劑，多家央行將做出決定，其中包括日本央行，預計日本央行將升息 25 個基點至 0.75%，而英國央行可能會將利率下調相同幅度至 3.75%。
預計歐洲央行將維持利率不變，瑞典央行和挪威央行也將如此。
美元兌日圓下跌0.1%至155.07日圓，交易員正密切關注日本央行週五的決定。
歐元兌美元匯率穩定在1.17535美元，烏克蘭和平談判進展，美國提出向基輔提供北約式的安全保障。英鎊兌美元匯率持平於1.3376美元。
美元兌離岸人民幣匯率持平於 7.0371 元人民幣，為 2024 年 10 月 3 日以來的最低水準。
澳元小幅上漲 0.1% 至 0.66445 美元，儘管此前一項私人調查顯示，消費者信心在 12 月下滑，而上個月首次轉正，但澳元匯率變化不大。
Gold remains on the path to $4,000 as the US dollar weakens
Gold prices surged to a one-month high above $3,400 an ounce Thursday, supported by persistent U.S. dollar weakness. Analysts at Bank of America expect the rally to continue, maintaining their forecast that the yellow metal will hit $4,000 an ounce by the first half of 2026.
In a report published last week, the bank said falling interest rates and a weaker dollar will underpin the metal’s gains.
“Potential rate cuts amid increasing inflation create fertile ground for dollar depreciation,” analysts wrote. “Rate cuts in an environment of continued elevated inflation would, in all likelihood, push the precious metal higher.”
Spot gold last traded at $3,417.10 an ounce, up 0.64% on the day. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index last traded at 97.81 points, down 0.32% on the day.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as soon as September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders have nearly fully priced in a 25-basis-point move, with further easing possible in October and December.
“Recent US data have shifted our view on rates to the downside,” BofA said, pointing to softening labor market trends. “Recent cooling employment data, a narrowing in the breadth of employment growth & other signs of labor market moderation may support a shift the Fed's risk assessment.”
The bank added that political pressure on the Fed, including criticism from President Donald Trump, could weigh further on the dollar.
“Risks to Fed independence are well recognized, but the market now needs to contemplate the implications of institutional erosion at statistical agencies as well,” analysts said.
BofA warned that higher inflation could temporarily lift the dollar as markets scale back easing bets. Economists expect Friday’s core PCE index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—to show a 2.8% annual gain, unchanged from June.
However, Bank of America expects that any rally in the U.S. dollar will be sold.
“Should inflation data continue to come in on the sticky side, leading the Fed to push back more assertively on easing expectations, the USD could experience another relief rally, though we would view such an event as short-lived,” the analysts said.
