受美國強勁經濟數據和殖利率走強的影響，金銀價格下跌
週一晚些時候，現貨黃金價格大幅下跌，現貨白銀價格也走弱。儘管地緣政治風險依然高企，但美國公債殖利率走強、美元走強以及油價再次飆升，都對金屬價格構成了壓力。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,513.70美元，下跌2.16%；現貨白銀交易價格為每盎司72.570美元，下跌3.53%。 Kitco的現貨市場數據顯示，黃金日內交易區間為每盎司4,502.40美元至4,630.70美元，白銀日內交易區間為每盎司72.10美元至76.12美元。
美國經濟數據表現強勁，而非支撐金價。美國人口普查局週一公佈的數據顯示， 3月工廠訂單增加1.5%至6,304億美元，高於2月0.3%的增幅。出貨量成長1.4%至6,339億美元，庫存成長0.6%至9,563億美元。工廠訂單數據也高於市場普遍預期的0.5%，降低了短期內降息的可能性。
週五ISM製造業指數公佈後，整體製造業環境已對貴金屬構成不利影響。 ISM數據顯示，美國4月製造業活動連續第四個月擴張，製造業採購經理人指數（PMI）為52.7%。
對政策敏感的市場是此次下跌的主要原因。 10年期美國公債殖利率接近4.44%，當日上漲約6.5個基點，盤中波動區間為4.377%至4.467%。美元指數走強，報98.472，上漲0.32%。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走高，交易價格在每桶104.88美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶113.56美元。由於中東衝突升級，霍爾木茲海峽局勢再次引發通膨擔憂，並推高殖利率，布蘭特原油價格上漲5.8%，至每桶114.44美元。
日圓企穩，美元因中東戰爭擔憂而走強
週二，日圓匯率保持穩定，此前市場對東京上周可能採取乾預措施的擔憂持續存在，導致日圓在最近幾個交易日大幅上漲；與此同時，由於中東戰爭令市場情緒承壓，避險需求推動美元走強。
澳元兌美元匯率在0.7168美元附近幾乎沒有變化，市場正等待澳洲儲備銀行當天稍後的政策決定。市場普遍預期，澳洲央行將連續第三次升息以抑制通膨。
投資人將密切關注澳儲行的語氣和言論，以判斷其利率前景。自2025年年中以來，通膨率一直高於澳儲行2%-3%的目標區間，促使該央行從2月初開始升息。
自2月底戰爭爆發以來，霍爾木茲海峽（全球約五分之一石油運輸的重要通道）的關閉引發了能源衝擊，導致全球通膨擔憂加劇，原油價格也維持在每桶100美元以上。
週一，美國和伊朗在海灣地區發動新的襲擊，令市場動盪不安，嚴重考驗了脆弱的停火協議，並使投資者感到不安，風險偏好低迷。
美元走強，歐元則維持隔夜跌幅。歐元兌美元最新報1.1693美元，英鎊兌美元報1.353美元。美元指數（衡量美元兌6個單位匯率）在周一上漲0.3%後，穩定在98.452。
「雖然我們已經看到市場明顯轉向規避風險，但我們還沒有看到可能伴隨敵對行動全面升級的那種大幅度波動，」悉尼 ATFX Global 首席市場策略師 Nick Twidale 表示。
特威代爾表示，局勢仍高度不穩定，進一步升級可能導致油價大幅上漲，並對風險資產構成壓力。布蘭特原油期貨報每桶113.8美元，早盤下跌0.6%，此前週一曾上漲6%。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
