黃金和白銀在震盪波動的交易中走低
週一美國午盤交易時段，黃金和白銀價格走低，處於日內寬幅交易區間的中部。此前，金銀價格在隔夜跌至四周低點，並受到上週五創紀錄交易日的影響。 4月黃金期貨價格最新下跌39.70美元，每盎司4707.50美元。 3月白銀期貨價格下跌0.61美元，每盎司77.90美元。
美國股市指數和美元指數的反彈，以及原油期貨價格的大幅下跌，都是不利於貴金屬多頭的外部市場因素，這些因素在交易週和交易月的第一天都對貴金屬多頭造成了不利影響。
隔夜，3月交割的白銀期貨價格跌至每盎司71.20美元的低點，此前上週四曾觸及每盎司121.785美元的歷史新高。隔夜，4月交割的黃金期貨價格跌至每盎司4,423.20美元的低點，此前上週四曾觸及每盎司4,626.80美元的歷史新高。
芝加哥商品交易所集團週末再次提高了兩種金屬期貨合約的保證金要求。
貴金屬承壓的部分原因是川普總統週五提名凱文沃什擔任聯準會主席，此舉推高了美元指數。沃什在貨幣政策方面一直以鷹派立場著稱。
有些人將週五黃金和白銀市場的暴跌歸咎於中國投機者利用期貨和選擇權進行槓桿多頭押注，他們可能並未意識到高槓桿可能帶來的潛在風險。彭博社報道稱，由於一名交易對手逃離中國，導致部分交易未能完成，中國金屬交易商累計損失至少10億元人民幣。這名交易對手是徐茂華，綽號“帽子”，他已銷聲匿跡。據報道，他曾是幫助國資集團旗下子公司國投商品股份有限公司透過規避中國政府規定的不正當交易提升銷售額的網路核心成員。
可靠的數據勝過硬資產
華爾街對上週貴金屬的歷史性拋售置之不理，拋售潮在周一繼續，美元再次上漲，投資者受到強勁的美國和全球製造業數據、企業盈利以及美伊之間明顯緩和的鼓舞。
更多內容請見下。在今天的專欄文章中，我將探討美國總統唐納德·川普提名凱文·沃什擔任聯準會新主席如何引發了上週五貴金屬價格的歷史性暴跌。但「貶值」交易遠未結束。
貴金屬價格週一繼續暴跌，延續了上週五的歷史性跌勢。上週五，白銀和鉑金都創下有史以來最大單日跌幅，黃金則遭遇1983年以來最大跌幅。黃金價格再跌4%，白銀價格再跌7%。
但此輪拋售似乎更為溫和——亞洲股市暴跌，但歐美股市卻不受影響。對基金經理人而言，目前的關鍵在於管理風險敞口並保護更廣泛的投資組合——據Pepperstone的克里斯·韋斯頓稱，白銀10日實際波動率週五飆升至186%。
今年美國製造業開局強勁，1月ISM製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)躍升至52.6。儘管報告部分內容令人擔憂，但這仍標誌著近四年來最強勁的成長，令路透社調查的56位分析師一致感到意外，他們此前均預測1月份製造業將繼續萎縮。
這與美國經濟穩健成長的大方向相符，亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的GDPNow模型預測第一季年化成長率為4.2%。即使潛在成長速度略有放緩，通膨率遠高於目標水平，這就引出了一個問題：為什麼聯準會今年仍有望降息？
據美國總統川普稱，美國和印度週一達成貿易協議，根據該協議，美國對印製商品的關稅將降至18%，而印度對美商品的關稅將被取消。川普也表示，印度還將購買價值5,000億美元的美國能源、科技、農產品和其他產品。
此前，歐盟與印度經過二十年的談判，上週達成了一項全面的貿易協議。美國財政部長貝森特對協議表示失望，但這或許促使華盛頓方面加快了達成這項協議的腳步。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
