金價格繼續維持在4,000美元附近
週一下午美國交易時段，現貨黃金和白銀價格走強，油價下跌緩解了美伊衝突帶來的通膨壓力，同時市場對本週聯準會利率決議的持謹慎態度。截至發稿時，現貨黃金報每盎司4075.60美元附近，上漲0.59%；現貨白銀報每盎司58.290美元，上漲0.45%。
美國利率仍然是黃金面臨的主要宏觀風險，聯準會將於週三公佈利率決議。儘管市場預期升息25個基點的可能性較大，但並非絕對，但聯準會維持緊縮政策並抑制任何寬鬆預期的風險抑制了黃金的上漲。由於貨幣政策走向不明朗，黃金價格受到能源價格引發的通膨風險和事件風險不確定性的雙重影響。
霍爾木茲海峽仍是能源市場乃至黃金市場宏觀風險溢酬的核心。在伊朗戰爭爆發前，這條水道每天輸送約1500萬桶波斯灣石油。近期的交通中斷迫使海灣產油國更加依賴其他管道運輸，而這些管道並非為完全取代霍爾木茲海峽而建。週一，美伊兩國暫停軍事行動，原油價格立即承壓，布蘭特原油結算價為每桶85.87美元，下跌6.3%；美國原油結算價為每桶82.61美元，下跌7.5%。這緩解了部分油價上漲帶來的通膨壓力，並有助於降低美國公債殖利率。然而，霍爾木茲海峽的航運尚未恢復正常，黃金價格主要受整體風險支撐，而實際利率風險上升則限制了後續買盤。
美國股市漲跌互現，降級貿易政策利好對燃油價格敏感的板塊，同時令部分科技股承壓。標普500指數上漲不到0.1%，道瓊工業指數上漲0.5%，那斯達克指數下跌0.2%。基準10年期美國公債殖利率接近4.6%，較上週五尾盤下降，而美元指數週一走軟或基本持平。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走低，交易價格在每桶82.61美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶85.87美元。美元指數走軟或基本持平。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.6%附近交易。
美元觸及一個月高點
週二，美元維持在一個月高位，交易員們仍在權衡聯準會即將召開的會議上升息的可能性，儘管油價下跌緩解了人們對通膨的一些擔憂。
美元指數（衡量美元兌包括日圓和歐元在內的一籃子貨幣的匯率）小幅上漲0.03%至101.55，歐元兌美元下跌0.01%至1.1366美元。美元兌日圓上漲0.05%至163.82，英鎊兌美元下跌0.02%至1.3284美元。
儘管美國暫停對伊朗的攻擊導致油價下跌，並在一定程度上緩解了通膨擔憂，但與隔夜其他市場的走勢相比，美國公債殖利率的回落幅度並不大。
Pepperstone 研究主管克里斯·韋斯頓表示：“由於美國國債殖利率曲線前端缺乏實質性的買盤，美元得到了很好的支撐。”
聯準會將於週三結束為期兩天的政策會議。鑑於本月油價飆升以及中東緊張局勢升級，越來越多的主要券商認為聯準會本週升息的風險確實存在。
根據芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的FedWatch數據顯示，市場預期聯準會將在政策聲明中至少升息25個基點的預期值高達36.3%。開啟新分頁較一週前的16%上升。市場預期央行在9月會議上升息的可能性為81%。
澳新銀行外匯研究主管馬赫賈賓·扎曼在播客中表示：“如果真的出現意外加息，肯定會對美元構成支撐，美元可能會創下新高，並可能維持其強勢地位，尤其是對日元和瑞士法郎等低收益貨幣而言。”
本週，投資人也將關注美國第二季GDP數據和聯準會首選的通膨指標——核心PCE通膨率，以期獲得更多全球最大經濟體健康狀況的線索。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
