黃金出現獲利回吐
週四午盤，金價走低，受短期期貨交易員獲利了結壓力影響，早盤觸及四周高點。銀價大幅上漲，創下13年來新高。整體市場風險偏好依然低迷，這持續刺激黃金和白銀的避險買盤。 8月黃金期貨最新下跌22.60美元，至3,376.20美元。 7月白銀期貨最新上漲1.112美元，至35.75美元。
交易員和投資者正在等待本月美國最重要的數據：美國勞工部週五上午公佈的5月就業報告。關鍵的非農業就業機會預計將增加12.5萬個，而4月報告的增幅為17.7萬個。週三公佈的ADP全國就業報告大幅低於預期，令許多市場參與者憂心忡忡，他們擔心週五的就業報告是否也會低於預期。
隔夜消息方面，總部位於瑞士和新加坡的大宗商品交易公司托克集團（Trafigura）警告稱，由於地緣政治和宏觀經濟不穩定以及通膨上升的威脅，大宗商品市場近期將出現波動。該公司預計，這種劇烈波動將持續一段時間。
今日主要外部市場美元指數小幅下跌。紐約商品交易所原油期貨價格走強，交易價格約每桶63.25美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前約4.4%。
從技術面來看，8月黃金期貨多頭擁有穩固的整體近期技術優勢。多頭的下一個上行價格目標是收盤價高於5月高點3,477.30美元的堅固阻力位。
數據令人失望，美元下跌
美元週三全線下跌，此前公佈的美國民間就業數據弱於預期，凸顯了勞動力市場持續寬鬆，且數據顯示美國服務業 5 月份出現約一年來的首次萎縮。
ADP全國就業報告週三顯示，美國5月私部門就業人數僅增加3.7萬個，遠低於預期，而4月就業人數增加6萬個，前值被下修。
路透社調查的經濟學家先前預測，私部門就業人數將增加 11 萬人，而先前報告的 4 月私部門就業人數增加了 62,000 人。
美國總統川普再次呼籲聯準會主席鮑威爾在數據公佈後降低利率。
華盛頓 Monex USA 交易總監胡安·佩雷斯 (Juan Perez) 表示：“預期與實際情況之間存在巨大差距。”
他說：“人們認為勞動力沒有受到傷害，疫情後的復甦已經足夠好，人們正在享受良好的機會……這種說法正在改變，這對美元來說絕對是非常不利的。”
另外，數據顯示，5月份美國服務業出現近一年來的首次萎縮，而企業支付的投入價格更高，這提醒人們，美國經濟仍面臨成長非常緩慢和高通膨的危險。
聯信銀行首席經濟學家比爾·亞當斯在一份報告中表示：“美聯儲會注意到就業增長放緩，但這不足以說服他們在短期內降息。”
美元兌日圓下跌0.7%，至142.89。歐元兌美元上漲0.4%，至1.1414美元，預計歐洲央行週四公佈利率決定。
投資者正在等待週五公佈的月度就業數據來判斷勞動市場的狀況，並繼續關注貿易談判。
川普政府規定各國在周三之前提交最佳貿易報價，同一天進口鋼鐵和鋁的關稅也翻了一番。
白宮還暗示，川普本週將與中國國家主席習近平通話，此前雙方互相指責對方違反了上個月達成的取消部分關稅的協議條款。
川普週三在其社群媒體平台上發文稱，習近平「很強硬」，「很難與之達成協議」。
Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index
Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”
Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.
Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”
