黃金、白銀價格迅速下跌
週四午盤前後，黃金和白銀價格大幅下跌。上午晚些時候，價格暴跌來勢洶洶，鉑金、鈀金、銅、美國股指和原油價格同時跌至日內低點。同時，美國公債價格觸及日內高點。截至發稿時，這些價格波動的原因尚不清楚。可能是某家大型投資銀行或對沖基金決定拋售其在上述一個或多個市場中持有的大量多頭頭寸，這些市場此前遭遇了沉重的拋售壓力，從而引發了多市場「閃崩」。黃金價格在午盤前後從日內低點略有回升，但白銀價格繼續下跌，創下新的日內低點。 4月黃金期貨價格下跌120美元，至每盎司4,980美元。 3月白銀期貨價格下跌7.75美元，至每盎司76.20美元。
週五早晨美國1月消費者物價指數（CPI）報告發布前夕的一些部位調整可能引發了部分拋售。此外，還有傳言指出CPI數據已於今日洩露，且通膨數據「強勁」。但目前來看，該傳言尚未得到證實。分析師預估1月CPI年增2.5%，核心CPI（剔除食品及能源價格）較去年同期上漲2.5%。 12月CPI年增2.5%，核心CPI年增2.6%。
今日主要外部市場方面，美元小幅走強，原油價格走低，交投於每桶62.75美元左右。
從技術層面來看，4月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上漲目標是突破5,250美元的強勁阻力位。
美國商務部長稱美元匯率處於「更自然」的貿易水平
美國商務部長霍華德·盧特尼克週二表示，他認為美元走軟處於「更自然」的水平，有利於促進美國出口和擴大經濟成長。
盧特尼克在美國參議院撥款小組委員會被問及近期美元疲軟時表示，多年來，其他國家為了向美國出口更多商品而人為推高美元匯率，但唐納德·川普總統正在改變貿易格局。
「所以，美元目前的匯率更符合實際情況。我們的出口增加了，這就是為什麼我們的GDP成長如此迅速，對吧？」盧特尼克說。
他還補充說，他認為 2025 年第四季 GDP 將超過 5%，並可能在 2026 年第一季超過 6%。
美國財政部長斯科特·貝森特是美國政府在美元價值問題上的傳統發言人，他一再堅稱美國奉行“強勢美元政策”，並且美國為吸引外國投資而採取的經濟措施也支持這一政策。
1月下旬，川普稱美元疲軟“非常嚴重”，美元因此跌至四年來的最低點。
美元疲軟源自於多種因素：市場預期聯準會將繼續降息、關稅不確定性、政策波動（包括聯準會獨立性受到威脅）以及財政赤字不斷上升，所有這些都削弱了投資者對美國經濟穩定的信心。
週二，受12月消費者支出成長速度低於預期以及日圓在首相高市早苗贏得選舉後再次走強的影響，美元兌主要貨幣普遍走低。
美國商務部週二公佈的數據顯示，12月份美國零售銷售額意外持平，對占美國經濟三分之二的消費者支出造成壓力。由於去年政府停擺導致數據發布延遲，各數據發布機構仍在補發數據。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
