貿易發展推動美元走強，黃金走弱
近期國際貿易談判的進展似乎對貴金屬市場產生了重大影響，導致金價開盤走弱，並在整個交易日內持續下跌。一系列貿易相關消息的疊加，導緻美元走強，傳統避險資產需求下降，貴金屬市場也因此受到衝擊。
市場波動的主要催化劑源自於多條貿易戰線的進展。美國與歐盟達成協議，對歐盟輸美產品徵收15%的關稅，這為兩國重要的貿易關係提供了明確的指引。同時，中國媒體報道稱，中美兩國可能將現有關稅協定延長90天，為全球最大的雙邊貿易關係帶來暫時的穩定。川普政府已表示，尚未達成貿易協定的國家很快就會面臨關稅結構的調整，這表明貿易政策的實施將採取綜合性方針。
這些正面的貿易發展推動美元出現自4月以來最大幅的單日昇值，洲際交易所（ICE）美元指數飆升逾1%，達到98.66的日高。貨幣政策預期進一步支撐了美元的強勢，因為聯準會即將召開的會議顯示降息的可能性微乎其微。根據聯準會觀察（FedWatch）工具，市場參與者預計降息的可能性僅為3.1%，96.9%的受訪者預計利率將維持不變。 8月聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議缺席，顯示目前的高利率環境將至少持續到9月的預定會議。
儘管美元明顯走強，但黃金仍表現出一定的潛在韌性。黃金期貨下跌24.50美元，收在3,314美元，跌幅0.73%，但相較於美元超過1%的升值幅度，跌幅明顯較小。這種背離表明，儘管美元走強帶來了技術面挑戰，但仍有策略性買家願意增持黃金部位。
白銀市場的反應更為複雜，反映了白銀的雙重工業和貨幣特性。歐盟-美國貿易協定帶來的正面經濟影響，利好白銀的工業需求部分，因為貿易關係的改善通常會支持製造業活動和工業金屬消費。相反，貿易進展在提振工業需求的同時，也降低了對白銀避險屬性的需求。這些相反的因素基本上相互抵消，導致白銀期貨收盤幾乎持平，僅下跌半美分，至38.33美元。
美元上漲，但在聯準會和日本央行會議前
美元週五上漲，受強勁的經濟數據支撐，這些數據表明美聯儲可能會花時間恢復降息，而關稅談判顯示出更多的清晰度，緩解了市場上的一些不確定性。
數據顯示，6月美國製造主要資本貨品新訂單意外下降，但出貨量溫和成長，但美元對數據反應平淡。這顯示第二季企業設備支出大幅放緩。
布朗兄弟哈里曼公司駐倫敦高級市場策略師埃利亞斯哈達德表示，“美元在本週早些時候處於守勢之後，過去兩天有所回升……主要受到一系列令人鼓舞的美國經濟數據的支撐，這些數據表明美聯儲應繼續保持耐心。”
在下週舉行更多關稅對話和央行會議之前，美元將創下一個月來最大單週跌幅，而英國零售銷售數據弱於預期後，英鎊下跌。
預計聯準會和日本央行將在下週的政策會議上維持利率不變，但交易員正關注隨後的評論，以判斷下一步行動的時機。
法國巴黎銀行在一份研究報告中寫道：“我們認為(美聯儲)會議存在一些樂觀的空間。與貿易政策相關的經濟不確定性雖然尚未完全解決，但已顯著下降。”
政治是影響兩大央行的因素之一，美國尤其如此，美國總統川普週四與聯準會主席鮑威爾發生衝突，再次要求降低利率。
布朗兄弟的哈達德表示，聯準會的貨幣政策“正受到降低利率的政治壓力的掩蓋。這是我認為美元上漲空間有限的原因之一。”
不過，在川普表示他不打算解僱鮑威爾（儘管他曾多次暗示可能會解僱鮑威爾）之後，美元兌歐元週四晚些時候小幅回升。
三菱日聯金融集團 (MUFG) 歐洲、中東和非洲地區研究主管德里克·哈爾彭尼 (Derek Halpenny) 表示：“市場之所以鬆一口氣，是因為川普沒有要求鮑威爾下台，儘管這是基於川普認為鮑威爾會‘做正確的事’。”
Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index
Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”
Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.
Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”
