受聯準會鷹派降息預期影響，黃金和白銀遭到拋售
週一美股午盤交易中，黃金和白銀價格走低。儘管聯準會本週降息，但市場仍擔憂聯準會的言論會趨於鷹派，因此兩大貴金屬市場都面臨拋售壓力。此外，原定於本週稍晚發布的10月和11月美國生產者通膨報告推遲至1月發布，也加劇了金銀價格的拋售壓力。這給當前的美國通膨情勢帶來了更多不確定性。 2月黃金期貨最新下跌27.60美元，每盎司4,215.50美元；3月白銀期貨下跌0.788美元，報每盎司58.28美元。
聯準會公開市場委員會（FOMC）將於週二上午召開貨幣政策會議，會議將於週三下午結束，屆時FOMC將發布聲明，聯準會主席鮑威爾將舉行新聞發布會。市場普遍預期，本週FOMC會議降息0.25%的可能性高達90%。然而，市場也越來越預期，FOMC的聲明以及鮑威爾主席在新聞發布會上的講話可能會對美國貨幣政策持鷹派立場——這主要是出於對通膨粘性的擔憂。
另根據世界銀行週日公佈的數據顯示，中國央行連續第13個月增持黃金儲備。中國人民銀行上月黃金持有量增加3萬盎司，總量達約7,412萬盎司。本輪增持週期始於2024年11月。世界銀行理事會表示，全球央行在經歷了年中短暫的低迷期後，於10月份加強了黃金購買。
今日主要外部市場方面，美元指數走強。原油價格走弱，交易價格約59.25美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前約4.15%。
從技術層面來看，2月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上漲目標是突破合約/歷史高點4,433.00美元的強勁阻力位。
受聯準會寬鬆政策限制預期影響，美元走強
週一，美元兌主要貨幣在震盪交易中走強。本週將舉行一系列央行會議，其中最受矚目的當屬聯準會會議。市場幾乎已經消化了聯準會降息的預期，但投資人仍擔心寬鬆週期的力道會弱於預期。
另一方面，週一晚些時候，日本東北地區發生里氏7.6 級強震，引發海嘯預警並下令居民撤離，日圓全線走弱。
除了聯準會週三的決定外，澳洲、巴西、加拿大和瑞士的中央銀行也將舉行利率決策會議，儘管預計這些會議都不會改變貨幣政策。
分析師預計聯準會將採取「鷹派降息」策略，聲明的措辭、預測中位數以及主席鮑威爾的新聞發布會都表明，進一步降息的門檻將會更高。
負責制定貨幣政策的聯邦公開市場委員會預計將於週三宣布，將基準隔夜利率下調 25 個基點至 3.50%-3.75% 的區間，這將是聯準會連續第三次放鬆貨幣政策。
如果這促使投資者降低對明年兩到三次降息的預期，那麼美元可能會因此走強，儘管政策制定者之間的分歧可能會使訊息傳遞變得複雜；一些政策制定者實際上已經表明了他們的投票意向。
「在經濟沒有崩潰、通膨相對溫和的情況下，聯準會可以放心地降低利率，同時既不承諾也不保證未來會採取進一步行動，」華盛頓 Monex USA 的交易主管胡安·佩雷斯表示。
“很難想像官員們會著眼於未來進行周密的規劃，因為他們實際上還需要回顧過去，才能更好地評估我們所處的境地。我們目前似乎正處於滯脹時期，因此，由於官員們自身對經濟形勢的結論也存在分歧，所以才會出現各種不同的觀點。”
美元指數最新上漲0.1%，報99.07。
Gold remains on the path to $4,000 as the US dollar weakens
Gold prices surged to a one-month high above $3,400 an ounce Thursday, supported by persistent U.S. dollar weakness. Analysts at Bank of America expect the rally to continue, maintaining their forecast that the yellow metal will hit $4,000 an ounce by the first half of 2026.
In a report published last week, the bank said falling interest rates and a weaker dollar will underpin the metal’s gains.
“Potential rate cuts amid increasing inflation create fertile ground for dollar depreciation,” analysts wrote. “Rate cuts in an environment of continued elevated inflation would, in all likelihood, push the precious metal higher.”
Spot gold last traded at $3,417.10 an ounce, up 0.64% on the day. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index last traded at 97.81 points, down 0.32% on the day.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as soon as September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders have nearly fully priced in a 25-basis-point move, with further easing possible in October and December.
“Recent US data have shifted our view on rates to the downside,” BofA said, pointing to softening labor market trends. “Recent cooling employment data, a narrowing in the breadth of employment growth & other signs of labor market moderation may support a shift the Fed's risk assessment.”
The bank added that political pressure on the Fed, including criticism from President Donald Trump, could weigh further on the dollar.
“Risks to Fed independence are well recognized, but the market now needs to contemplate the implications of institutional erosion at statistical agencies as well,” analysts said.
BofA warned that higher inflation could temporarily lift the dollar as markets scale back easing bets. Economists expect Friday’s core PCE index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—to show a 2.8% annual gain, unchanged from June.
However, Bank of America expects that any rally in the U.S. dollar will be sold.
“Should inflation data continue to come in on the sticky side, leading the Fed to push back more assertively on easing expectations, the USD could experience another relief rally, though we would view such an event as short-lived,” the analysts said.
