黃金帶來一定的獨立性
散戶投資者或許正面臨生存危機，苦苦思索黃金在其投資組合中的作用；然而，各國央行顯然清楚黃金在其儲備中的地位，因此許多分析師預計，在可預見的未來，黃金需求仍將是市場的支柱。
央行對黃金的需求又添新變數：我們看到的不只是央行在累積黃金，它們還在將其貨幣化，作為重要的流動性來源。黃金不再只是一塊閃亮的石頭；在一個分裂的世界中，它正在重塑其作為重要貨幣資產的聲譽。
這個新現實標誌著人們對黃金的理解發生了關鍵性轉變：央行持有黃金並非出於自願，而是看到了其真正的價值。
而這個價值將繼續受到一個主導因素的影響──地緣政治的不確定性。
近期一項央行調查清晰地凸顯了這一轉變，該調查指出，地緣政治緊張局勢是今年全球經濟面臨的最大風險，超過了通貨膨脹和其他傳統擔憂。這項發現至關重要，因為它解釋了為什麼即使在高價位，央行仍在繼續累積黃金。
黃金直接應對了這種持續存在的風險。與法定貨幣或主權債務不同，黃金不存在交易對手風險敞口，也不會被外國政府凍結、制裁或操縱。在金融體係日益被用作地緣政治工具的當今世界，這種獨立性至關重要。
這也解釋了各國央行需求的穩定性和策略性。波蘭、烏茲別克和中國等國持續增加黃金儲備，並經常在價格回檔時出手幹預。這些並非投機交易，而是旨在增強金融韌性、降低外部衝擊風險的審慎之舉。
與此同時，各國央行正在改變其使用黃金的方式。黃金不再只是存放在金庫中的被動資產。上個月，在土耳其央行的引領下，黃金被貨幣化並用作流動性來源，強化了其作為功能性貨幣資產而非靜態價值儲存手段的角色。
對投資人而言，這種轉變不容忽視。儘管散戶投資者仍關注短期價格波動和利率預期，但各國央行正為更複雜且不確定的全球情勢做好準備。機構投資者也開始效仿，他們意識到，在傳統多元化投資策略面臨壓力的當下，黃金作為投資組合的錨定資產具有重要價值。
美元走強，和平談判陷入僵局
週一亞洲早盤交易中，美元兌大多數主要貨幣普遍上漲，升至一周以來的最高水平，原因是美國和伊朗之間的和平談判破裂，美國海軍準備封鎖伊朗港口。
衡量美元兌一籃子六種貨幣強弱的美元指數上漲0.5%，至99.187，為4月7日以來的最高水準。
歐元兌美元下跌0.5%至1.1667美元，英鎊兌美元下跌0.6%至1.3383美元，澳元兌美元下跌0.8%至0.7014美元，新西蘭元兌美元下跌0.7%至0.5798美元。
美國總統川普週日表示，在與伊朗的馬拉松式談判未能達成結束戰爭的協議後，美國海軍將開始封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，這危及了脆弱的兩週停火協議。美國中央司令部表示，美軍將於美國東部時間週一上午10點（格林尼治標準時間14:00）開始封鎖所有進出伊朗港口的船隻。
西太平洋銀行的分析師在一份研究報告中寫道：“今天早晨外匯交易清淡，顯示出避險情緒，美元也因此全面上漲。”
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
