黃金和白銀在早盤均創下新高後，出現小幅獲利回吐
週三午盤前後，黃金和白銀價格在輕微獲利回吐壓力下趨於穩定或走弱。隔夜，這兩種金屬都創下歷史新高。避險需求和看漲的技術圖表推動這兩種金屬價格飆升至歷史新高。目前，散戶黃金和白銀交易者也普遍存在著「錯失恐懼症」（FOMO），害怕錯過這波牛市行情。那些後入場做多黃金和白銀的投資者無異於玩火，可能會遭受損失。 2月黃金期貨最新下跌12.30美元，至每盎司4,494.00美元。 3月白銀期貨上漲0.038美元，至每盎司71.175美元。
本週鉑金價格飆升至歷史新高，首次突破每盎司2,300美元，主因是供應緊張和借貸成本處於歷史高點。今年以來，鉑金價格已上漲超過150%，創下彭博社自1987年開始收集相關數據以來的最大年度漲幅。由於主要生產國南非的供應中斷，鉑金今年預計將連續第三年出現供應短缺。
今日主要外部市場方面，美元指數小漲。原油價格基本上持穩，交易價格在每桶58.25美元左右。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前為4.15%。
從技術層面來看，2月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上行目標是突破4,600美元的強勁阻力位。
美元走軟，聯準會降息預期蓋過了經濟成長數據
週二，美元走弱。由於數據顯示全球最大經濟體美國強勁成長，但未能扭轉市場對美元的預期，美元仍面臨下行壓力。本週因假期縮短。
該報告強化了市場對聯準會將在1月底會議上暫緩降息的觀點，倫敦證券交易所集團(LSEG)的估計顯示，目前降息的可能性為87%。美國利率期貨市場目前預期聯準會下一次寬鬆政策將在6月實施，預計2026年將降息兩次，每次降息幅度為0.25個百分點。
「我們可能會看到美元在明年至少第一季走低，因為聯準會將越來越被迫承認勞動力市場狀況不佳，」多倫多 Silver Gold Bull 外匯和貴金屬風險管理主管 Erik Bregar 表示。
「美聯儲可能被迫在降息問題上做出一些讓步，甚至比目前為止的幅度更大。市場希望降息。而且很有可能我們會迎來一位鴿派的美聯儲主席，他會努力促成降息。”
美國商務部經濟分析局公佈的初步數據顯示，美國上季國內生產毛額（GDP）以年率計算成長了4.3% 。路透社先前調查的經濟學家預測，第三季GDP成長率為3.3%。
GDP報告公佈後，美元兌日圓和歐元跌幅縮小。
傑富瑞首席美國經濟學家湯姆·西蒙斯在一份研究報告中表示：“從表面上看（GDP）數據，經濟似乎在經歷了因預期關稅而導致的短暫低迷之後，正在加速增長。”
“然而，很難想像最終版本不會大幅下調，或者第四季度不會出現大幅下滑。”
GDP報告公佈後，美元兌日圓跌幅收窄，最新報156.26日圓，但仍下跌0.5%。
數據公佈後，歐元兌美元漲幅收窄，最新報1.1779美元，當日仍上漲0.2%。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
