黃金價格走強，白銀價格再創新高
週一美國午盤交易時段，黃金價格小幅上漲，觸及六周高點。白銀價格一路飆升，再創新高。受源自日本的債券市場動盪影響，本週及新月伊始，避險需求推動了黃金和白銀的上漲。近期，由於兩種金屬的短期技術型態都趨於看漲，圖表買盤也隨之而來。 2月黃金期貨價格上漲14.10美元，至每盎司4,270.20美元。 3月白銀期貨價格上漲2.012美元，至每盎司59.22美元，觸及合約/歷史新高59.30美元，截至發稿時仍在攀升。
隔夜全球股市普遍走弱。美國股指午盤附近走弱，但已從盤中低點反彈。日本債券市場的一些擔憂令交易員和投資者在本周伊始略感不安。
川普總統週日表示，他已決定下一任聯準會主席的人選，並期望提名人能夠降息。據知情人士透露，川普的首席經濟顧問凱文·哈塞特被視為接替現任美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的熱門人選，彭博社也對此進行了報道。川普的提名人選需要獲得美國參議院的確認，如果提名人選是局外人，則其聯準會理事任期可能為14年，從明年2月開始。鮑威爾的任期將於5月結束。哈塞特如果當選美聯儲主席，將有利於貴金屬價格。
從技術層面來看，2月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上漲目標是突破合約/歷史高點4,433.00美元的強勁阻力位。
美元走軟，PMI資料增強降息預期
週二，美元繼續承壓，因為全球最大經濟體的製造業活動數據弱於預期，這給聯準會在本月稍後的政策會議上降息帶來了巨大壓力。
衡量美元兌一籃子六種主要貨幣強弱的美元指數在亞洲交易時段開盤小幅走低至 99.408，此前該指數已連續第七個交易日下跌，並在周一美國交易時段觸及兩週低點，原因是股票和債券價格回落。
週一公佈的數據顯示，美國製造業11月連續第九個月萎縮，供應管理協會（ ISM）製造業採購經理人指數（PMI）從上月的48.7降至11月份的48.2。
新訂單和就業指標也惡化，同時由於進口關稅的拖累持續存在，投入價格上漲。
「這一切都表明，經濟中的需求已經放緩，」澳新銀行倫敦G3經濟主管布萊恩馬丁表示。
「我真的認為聯準會需要降息，而且不僅僅是在 12 月降息，而是在明年繼續降息，」他在一檔播客節目中說道，並補充說他預測 2026 年還將再降息 50 個基點。
根據芝加哥商品交易所集團的 FedWatch 工具顯示，聯邦基金期貨市場隱含的聯準會在 12 月 10 日的下次會議上降息 25 個基點的機率為 88%，而一個月前這一機率為 63%。
週一全球公債市場遭遇拋售後，美國10年期公債殖利率最新上漲至4.086%。
美元兌日圓匯率為155.51日圓，與美國尾盤水準持平。此前，日本央行行長上田一夫週一表示，央行將在下次政策會議上考慮加息的「利弊」，此舉推動日本兩年期國債收益率自2008年以來首次超過1%。
Gold remains on the path to $4,000 as the US dollar weakens
Gold prices surged to a one-month high above $3,400 an ounce Thursday, supported by persistent U.S. dollar weakness. Analysts at Bank of America expect the rally to continue, maintaining their forecast that the yellow metal will hit $4,000 an ounce by the first half of 2026.
In a report published last week, the bank said falling interest rates and a weaker dollar will underpin the metal’s gains.
“Potential rate cuts amid increasing inflation create fertile ground for dollar depreciation,” analysts wrote. “Rate cuts in an environment of continued elevated inflation would, in all likelihood, push the precious metal higher.”
Spot gold last traded at $3,417.10 an ounce, up 0.64% on the day. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index last traded at 97.81 points, down 0.32% on the day.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as soon as September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders have nearly fully priced in a 25-basis-point move, with further easing possible in October and December.
“Recent US data have shifted our view on rates to the downside,” BofA said, pointing to softening labor market trends. “Recent cooling employment data, a narrowing in the breadth of employment growth & other signs of labor market moderation may support a shift the Fed's risk assessment.”
The bank added that political pressure on the Fed, including criticism from President Donald Trump, could weigh further on the dollar.
“Risks to Fed independence are well recognized, but the market now needs to contemplate the implications of institutional erosion at statistical agencies as well,” analysts said.
BofA warned that higher inflation could temporarily lift the dollar as markets scale back easing bets. Economists expect Friday’s core PCE index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—to show a 2.8% annual gain, unchanged from June.
However, Bank of America expects that any rally in the U.S. dollar will be sold.
“Should inflation data continue to come in on the sticky side, leading the Fed to push back more assertively on easing expectations, the USD could experience another relief rally, though we would view such an event as short-lived,” the analysts said.
