黃金開採產量將於2027年達到峰值
世界黃金協會的一份新報告顯示，全球黃金產量可能已接近峰值，未來兩年黃金開採產量將逐漸趨於平穩。
「近年來，全球黃金開採業保持穩定。儘管受到疫情、安全停工和罷工等短期影響，但2018年至2024年間，黃金礦產產量年均同比變化接近於零，」高級市場策略師約翰·里德和亞太地區（除印度外）研究主管雷·賈在周三發布的一份新分析報告中寫道。 “預計2024年黃金礦產產量將達到3645噸，同比增長4噸，是繼2018年創下的3658噸的年度最高紀錄之後的第二高。”
「2025年前三個季度，黃金總產量為2,717噸，較去年同期成長16噸，」作者指出。 “在金價飆升的背景下，我們看到的產量增長卻十分溫和，這引發了人們對該行業是否已接近極限以及這對未來供應意味著什麼的關鍵疑問。”
根據第一季至第三季的數據和趨勢，里德和賈認為，在利潤率上升、新項目、營運擴張以及手工和小規模金礦開採產量上升等諸多關鍵因素的推動下，2025 年黃金開採產量將創下新紀錄。
美元走勢平穩
週三，由於市場對本週即將公佈的幾項美國勞動力市場數據進行調整，美元兌日圓和歐元等主要貨幣保持穩定。
美國勞工部數據顯示，11月份美國職缺數量下降幅度超出預期，招募活動也放緩，顯示勞動力需求持續疲軟。
更全面、更受關注的非農就業報告將於週五公佈。
美元兌瑞士法郎小漲0.24%，至0.797；兌日圓小幅上漲0.08%，至156.75。
「目前美元的價格走勢更多的是戰術性的，因為如果沒有明確的政策更新，通常情況下美元的走勢將會出現回調，」Monex Canada 的高級選擇權交易員 Olivier Bellemare 表示。
“市場關注的焦點將集中在本週末公佈的就業數據上，原因是市場仍在尋找通膨跡象，將其作為判斷美元兌其他主要貨幣走勢方向的更可靠指標。”
週三油價下跌，此前美國總統川普的政府表示，已說服委內瑞拉將石油供應從北京轉移出去，中國譴責美國是霸凌者。
衡量美元兌包括日圓和歐元在內的一籃子貨幣的美元指數上漲0.07%，至98.68。
歐元在前一日下跌後小幅走低，原因是德國12月份通膨降幅超出預期，促使交易員略微減少了對2027年初升息的預期。
自去年夏天以來，市場一直預期政策利率在 2026 年之前保持穩定，同時預計隨著德國財政刺激措施帶來的通膨壓力不斷增加，歐洲央行將在 2027 年收緊政策。
歐元下跌0.04%，至1.1682美元，此前週二下跌0.28%。
此外，交易員們也關注到：中國週二禁止向日本出口可用於軍事用途的兩用物項，這是北京對日本首相高市早苗11月初關於台灣的言論的最新回應。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
