金銀價格承壓
據賀利氏貴金屬分析師稱，貴金屬價格持續受到通膨上升和利率預期變化的影響，而印度新的進口關稅制度正在重塑黃金和白銀的需求。
分析師在最新報告中指出，美國消費者物價和生產者物價上個月持續上漲，同時個人消費支出（PCE）指數預計也將進一步攀升，超過聯準會2%的目標。
他們寫道：「受中東衝突及隨之而來的物價上漲影響，市場預期已從2026年降息1-2次轉變為加息1次。與此同時，美聯儲的措辭和立場保持不變。凱文·沃什已確認將在6月17日的會議上就任主席，因此他的選擇餘地仍然有限。」
分析師也研究了印度政府最近決定將黃金和白銀進口關稅從 5 月 13 日的 6% 提高到 15% 的影響。
他們表示：“印度大量進口石油、黃金和白銀。當大宗商品價格上漲時，盧比就會面臨壓力。歷史上，印度曾通過提高進口稅來抑制進口，從而改善國際收支平衡，以此來支撐本國貨幣。”
他們指出：「在消息公佈後，許多印度貴金屬投資者紛紛拋售。5月14日，這種獲利回吐導致金價較官方國內價格下跌約200美元/盎司。此前，印度各銀行剛剛同意支付3%的綜合商品和服務稅，才恢復黃金和白銀的進口。此前，印度黃金和白銀進口暫停了一個月，每年進口黃金
他們補充說：“印度4月份進口了0.66百萬盎司黃金，比5年月均進口量1.25百萬盎司下降了47%。”
相反，分析師寫道，預計各國央行的黃金購買量將會加快，高盛已將其對各國央行2026年每月黃金購買量的預測修正為60噸。
他們寫道：“此次修訂是由於該行更新了計算方法，以彌補官方貿易數據的不足。此前，該行已於3月份將月均貿易量預期從29噸上調至50噸，此次修訂也得益於地緣政治不確定性下持續的多元化需求。”
現貨黃金週一持續下跌，測試4,500美元的近期支撐位，最新交易價格為4,498.72美元，當日下跌1.57%。
美元走強
週二，美元兌歐元和日圓等主要貨幣小幅走高，此前美國再次對伊朗發動空襲，打擊了人們對近期停火的樂觀情緒，提振了對避險美元的需求。
伊朗稱美國在伊朗南部進行所謂的防禦性打擊後違反了停火協議，而美國國務卿馬可·盧比奧表示，談判達成停止衝突的協議可能「需要幾天時間」。
過去幾週，人們對和平協議的希望時而高漲，時而低落。美國總統川普曾自信地斷言即將達成協議，但最終並未達成任何實際協議來開放至關重要的霍爾木茲海峽航道。
週末早些時候的樂觀情緒推動布蘭特原油價格跌破每桶 100 美元，並緩解了對美元的需求。
紐約 Bannockburn Global Forex 首席市場策略師 Marc Chandler 表示，週二美元需求略有回升，因為投資者對衝突迅速結束的希望減弱。
「事情經過很簡單：我們週末回家時以為停火即將達成，結果現在又爆發了新的衝突。所以我認為市場正在等待事態發展，」錢德勒說。
歐元兌美元下跌0.12%，至1.1629美元。美元兌瑞士法郎上漲0.4%，至0.786。
美元指數上漲0.13%，至99.16，前一天下跌了0.3%。
布蘭特原油期貨上漲3.58%，收在每桶98.58美元，此前週一下跌7%。
由於對與戰爭相關的通膨擔憂加劇，美國消費者信心在5月有所下降。
英鎊下跌0.45%，至1.3445美元。
市場情緒的轉變對日圓構成壓力，使其逼近1美元兌160日圓的水平，交易員認為這可能是東京方面進行幹預的潛在觸發點。
日圓兌美元下跌0.2%，至1美元兌159.31日圓。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
