貴金屬價格將上漲 8%，其中黃金領漲
根據世界銀行展望小組的數據，黃金價格將繼續上漲，地緣政治和新興市場需求帶來上行風險，而白銀和鉑金價格也將升值，但如果工業需求下滑，則可能會表現平平。
Prospects Group 的經濟學家和分析師在最近的一篇文章中寫道：“世界銀行貴金屬價格指數 2024 年 4 月環比上漲 9%，延續第一季的上升趨勢。” 「黃金在 4 月創下新的名義紀錄，而白銀則接近 2021 年初的紀錄。本月鉑金價格也出現反彈。他們補充說，地緣政治緊張局勢加劇加劇了價格飆升。
世界銀行預計該指數到2024 年將年增8%。風險。 “相反，主要經濟體工業活動低迷可能會削弱白銀和鉑金的需求，從而削弱價格。”
世界銀行指出，4 月金價名目價格達到 2,331 美元，繼 2024 年第一季 7% 的季度漲幅基礎上，這又是 2020 年開始的價格上漲趨勢的延續。
他們指出：“在地緣政治不確定性加劇的情況下，幾家新興市場經濟體央行的強勁需求以及中國交易所交易基金（ETF）活動的增加支撐了近期價格上漲。” 「作為一種避險資產，在地緣政治緊張局勢和政策不確定性加劇期間，黃金價格往往會上漲。以中國、印度和土耳其為首的央行創紀錄購買量提振了 2024 年第一季的黃金需求。
他們指出，中國央行在 2024 年 3 月將連續購買黃金的規模延長至連續 17 個月（此後他們 在 4 月又創下了紀錄）。他們表示：“相比之下，2024 年第一季珠寶、科技和投資領域的需求仍然低迷。” 「在新興市場和發展中經濟體央行持續強勁的需求、零售投資（金飾在一些國家被視為準投資）以及強勁的避險需求的支撐下，預計2024 年金價將比2023 年上漲8% 。
談到白銀，世界銀行分析師指出，在經歷了穩定且不那麼劇烈的第一季之後，4 月這種灰色金屬的價格比上個月上漲了 12%。他們表示：“最近白銀價格的上漲主要歸因於工業活動的復甦以及影響金價的一些因素，使金銀價格比接近10年平均水平。”
美國進口價格高企，美元反彈
數據顯示上個月美國進口價格上漲0.9%，美元週四上漲，這一漲幅引發了人們的擔憂，即美聯儲抑制通脹的努力尚未結束，可能會推遲政策制定者的計劃降低利率。
本週的經濟數據為聯準會帶來了好消息，但政策制定者尚未公開改變他們對許多投資者認為今年開始的降息時機的看法。
美國勞工統計局表示，4 月美國進口物價指數的漲幅是自 2022 年 3 月上漲 2.9% 以來的最大單月漲幅。美國勞工統計局表示，美國進口價格上次較上月下降是在 12 月。
市場也面臨上周美國新申請失業救濟人數下降的問題，顯示美國勞動市場的潛在強勢。強勁的經濟可以使利率在更長時間內保持在較高水準。
斯坦福 NatWest Markets G10 外匯策略主管 Brain Daingerfield 表示：「當然，市場對任何地方的通膨跡像都非常敏感，我們今天得到的進口價格系列明顯強於預期。」 ，康乃狄克州。
「聯準會希望看到不只一個點的持續進展。我們昨天得到的數據——消費者物價指數——並不像擔心的那麼糟糕，」他說。 “但我認為這不足以實質性改變市場對美聯儲的前景，這反映在美元今天的反彈方式上。”
週三，數據顯示美國4 月通膨率環比放緩至 0.3%，美元兌所有主要貨幣從大幅下跌中反彈。
追蹤美元兌六種貨幣的美元指數在周三下跌 0.75% 後上漲 0.27% 至 104.47。
經過今年前三個月的停滯後，消費者價格放緩，促使市場消化聯準會今年將兩次降息的可能性，第一次降息最早將於 9 月進行。
Expect to see some consolidation next week as gold price is unable to hold gains above $2,400
Gold and silver remain in robust uptrends, but investors should prepare to see prices consolidate next week as its recent momentum appears to have peaked, according to some analysts.
Both gold and silver saw renewed volatility on Friday as the precious metals could not hold their significant gains early in the day. At one point, gold prices were up more than 4% on the day, peaking at $2,448.80 an ounce. However, the yellow metal is now looking to end the week close to where it started. June gold futures last traded at $2,355.60 an ounce, up 0.4% from last Friday.
Meanwhile, silver has managed to maintain its outperformance against gold, even as it gives up similar gains Friday afternoon. Silver peaked Friday morning at $29.905 an ounce, an intra-day three-year high. However, as the dust settles, it looks to end the week holding support above $28 an ounce. May silver futures last traded at $28.105 an ounce, up 2% from last week.
Although gold could not hold its ground above $2,400 an ounce, analysts note that it remains relatively strong as it prepares to notch another record weekly close in its belt. The new record comes even as markets start to price out a potential rate cut in June after March inflation came in higher than expected.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, markets see only a 27% chance of a rate cut in June, down from a 50% price last week and 68% price a month ago. However, analysts note that although the Federal Reserve could delay the start of its easing cycle, it is unlikely they will be raising interest rates again, which means that real interest rates can still move lower, a positive environment for gold.
While gold remains well supported, some analysts have said the rally is becoming over-extended.
"I think the momentum is still strong, but at the same time, it is not right to be greedy, and given the stellar rally we have seen in the gold price, we think it is wise to book some profit," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
Philip Newman, Director and Founding Partner of Metals Focus, also said it might be a good idea for investors to take some of their profits off the table. He said the gold market is due for some consolidation after this unprecedented run in record territory.
"We don't expect to see a significant pullback, but we do think a short-term correction makes sense at these levels," he said.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that although the price momentum is extreme, he is looking through the recent volatility and is focused on the broader trends driving prices.
He noted that gold remains well supported in part due to rising inflation fears and growing uncertainty over the health of the global economy.
"Right now, the market is looking for something to break before it has actually broken, and it leaves the market exposed to a correction. Am I going to take chips off the table? I don't think so as I'm in it for the long run," he said. "I am still wondering what may happen if the economic data starts to weaken and inflation remains bid. That would justify gold's performance."
While everyone focuses on gold in U.S. dollar terms, it has made record gains against all major currencies. Hansen pointed out that gold is up 20% against the euro, 22% against the Australian dollar, and 26% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategies and forex at Tastylive.com, said that while he likes gold and silver, he will not be chasing the market at current levels. He added that he is looking to buy on dips.
"The Federal Reserve has been telling us that their next move is going to be a cut even though we see solid economic growth and stubborn inflation. This will drive real yields higher, and that is a positive environment for gold and silver," he said.
