2026/8/4

黃金新聞

通膨壓力降溫，股市上漲

週一美國交易時段尾盤，現貨黃金和白銀價格走高，原油價格大幅下跌和美國國債收益率走低抵消了受美伊外交談判進展緩慢影響而導致的避險需求下降。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,056.60美元，上漲0.37%；現貨白銀交易價格為每盎司5,7,940美元，上漲0.87%。
聯準會會議後的市場格局依然對利率高度敏感。上週三，聯準會以9比3的投票結果維持聯邦基金利率目標區間在3.50%至3.75%不變，其中三位官員支持升息25個基點。聯準會主席凱文沃什的新聞發布會給市場留下了鷹派的「維持利率不變」的印象：短期內不會收緊貨幣政策，但通膨風險的消退速度也難以排除再次升息的可能性。 6月個人消費支出（PCE）通膨率隨後回落至3.7%，核心PCE為3.3%，而首次申請失業救濟人數升至19.7萬人，7月份ISM製造業指數攀升至55.6，創下2022年5月以來的最高水準。期貨市場仍預期9月升息的可能性約為三分之二，但由於週一的油價拋售導致收益率走低，這種可能性較會前有所下降。

霍爾木茲海峽的風險溢價有所降溫，但並未完全消除。美國總統川普推遲了對伊朗的打擊計劃，並推動旨在重新開放該水道和限制德黑蘭核計劃的談判，而伊朗則否認與美國直接對話，並表示與阿曼就通過該海峽的談判仍在繼續。市場對原油的影響最為明顯：WTI原油跌至每桶78至79美元的高位，布蘭特原油跌至每桶83美元的低位，此前7月份的戰爭溢價曾將布蘭特原油價格推高至每桶90美元以上。對黃金而言，影響則喜憂參半：海灣局勢升級導致避險需求短期內有所下降，但與石油相關的通膨風險降低、收益率走軟以及美元走軟，都減輕了黃金面臨的部分宏觀壓力。
受油價下跌和殖利率下降提振，北美股市大幅收高。標普500指數上漲1.48%，收在7600.50點；道瓊工業指數上漲1.32%，創下53178.41點的歷史新高；那斯達克指數上漲2.13%，收在25913.90點；羅素2000綜合指數上漲2.13%，收在25913.90點；羅素2000指數上漲1.7%，收於12點。通訊服務板塊領漲美國市場，而能源板塊則表現落後，原油價格下跌約5%。

歐洲股市也收高，泛歐斯托克600指數上漲0.5%，收在652.09點，接近上週五創下的歷史新高。德國DAX指數上漲1.45%，收在26001.31點，首次突破26,000點大關。倫敦富時100指數下跌0.1%，阿斯特捷利康股價下跌拖累了英國股市。由於原油拋售緩解了能源成本擔憂，旅遊、休閒和國防類股走高，而歐洲能源股則下跌。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格大幅下跌，交易價格在每桶78.85美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶82.91美元。美元指數走軟。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.7%附近交易。
Capital.com高級市場分析師丹妮拉·哈索恩(Daniela Hathorn)早些時候稱，美伊外交努力是“朝著正確方向邁出的一步”，但她也警告稱，下週的局勢仍不明朗。這一觀點與貴金屬市場的表現相符：黃金和白銀保持堅挺，但這兩個市場都尚未突破聯準會和霍爾木茲協議引發的盤整區間。

美元新聞

美國透過拋售歐元買入日圓

交易員們正在努力應對美日為支撐疲軟日元而採取的罕見協調行動，同時他們還在消化另一個不尋常的動態：美國拋售歐元。
日本週一證實，上週五已與美國財政部合作實施了日圓購買幹預。但兩位市場消息人士告訴路透社，財政部並非買入日圓賣出美元，而是用歐元買入日圓，這與《金融時報》早前的報道相符。

匯豐銀行的分析師表示，這是「一個非常不尋常的——或許是史無前例的——舉措」。
貨幣分析師補充說，此舉可能反映出美國當局希望幫助日本走強日元，但又不希望給人留下華盛頓希望美元走軟的印象——這只會使控制高於目標水平的通膨的努力更加複雜。
「鑑於目前美國的通膨率高於目標水平，美元走軟對他們來說並不是好事，」三菱日聯銀行高級貨幣分析師李哈德曼表示。
美元普遍走軟導致的通膨上升，可能會給意見分歧嚴重的聯準會更多理由提高美國利率。

日本財務省週四也介入了市場，加上週五的行動，週一市場出現了進一步的劇烈波動，這也可能是由幹預措施驅動的。
日圓兌美元匯率目前在157左右，已從接近164的40年低點反彈。上週日元上漲近4%，創下兩年來最大單週漲幅。
巴克萊銀行分析師在一份報告中表示：“我們認為，美國財政部選擇幹預貨幣是為了避免發出美元全面疲軟的信號，從而使此次操作僅限於日元。”
歐元兌日圓匯率週四一度高達 187.4 日圓，週一短暫跌破 180 日圓，跌幅超過 4%。
一種貨幣對的變動幾乎會立即波及整個市場，因為銀行和交易員會重新評估歐元/日圓匯率的變動對美元/日圓和歐元/美元匯率的影響。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.