2026/6/2

黃金新聞

美伊僵局導致油價上漲，黃金價格下跌

週一收盤後，現貨黃金和白銀價格走低，原因是原油價格飆升、美國國債收益率走強以及美伊談判仍未取得突破性進展。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,482.30美元，下跌1.26%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司74.795美元，下跌0.64%。

5月ISM製造業指數從4月的52.7升至54.0，連續第五個月擴張，創下2022年5月以來的最高水準。新訂單指數從54.1升至56.8，而就業指數仍處於收縮狀態，為48.6。4月建築支出環比增長0.4%，經季節性調整後的年化率為2.172萬億美元，其中私人住宅建設增長0.8%，公共建設增長0.4%。這些數據共同加劇了金屬價格的承壓：工廠活動正在改善，建築業仍在擴張，而投入成本的不確定性仍然與石油價格、關稅和中東風險密切相關。
週末過後，美伊未能就重開霍爾木茲海峽達成協議，雙方互有打擊，原油價格應聲上漲。先前有報導稱，在以色列襲擊黎巴嫩後，伊朗暫停了談判，但隨後美國總統川普表示談判仍在繼續。受油價上漲、美國公債殖利率上升和美元走強的影響，黃金目前受到負面影響，儘管衝突風險仍在一定程度上支撐著對黃金的防禦性配置。在其他市場，最明顯的傳導效應體現在原油價格上漲、對燃料價格敏感的股票承壓、收益率走強、能源股走強以及航運相關板塊波動性加劇。

儘管受到油價衝擊，美國股市仍收高，科技股和能源股的上漲抵消了燃油價格上漲的疲軟影響。標普500指數上漲0.3%，收在7599.96點；道瓊工業指數上漲0.1%，收在51078.88點；那斯達克指數上漲0.4%，收在27086.81點，均創下歷史新高。羅素2000指數下跌0.5%，收在2905.76點，因為藉貸成本上升繼續對小型公司構成壓力。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走高，結算價約每桶92.16美元，布蘭特原油結算價接近每桶94.98美元。美元指數走強。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.5%附近交易。

美元新聞

美元走勢穩定

週二，美元穩定，市場對中東和平談判採取觀望態度。黎巴嫩宣布真主黨和以色列之間達成有限停火協議，但更廣泛的地緣政治不確定性令交易員感到不安。
鑑於4月初美伊停火協議的脆弱性，投資人對結束伊朗衝突的任何進展都持謹慎態度。
衡量美元兌六種主要貨幣的美元指數在黎巴嫩週一宣布協議後，從早盤的漲幅中回落。儘管該協議表明局勢有所緩和，但在更廣泛的地區衝突背景下，其作用仍然有限，這場衝突已經擾亂了霍爾木茲海峽的石油運輸。

澳洲聯邦銀行高級貨幣策略師克里斯蒂娜·克利夫頓在一份報告中寫道：“我們預計美國和伊朗將在本周某個時候同意逐步重新開放霍爾木茲海峽，並將停火延長60天，以便就伊朗的鈾濃縮問題進行談判​​。”
“戰爭結束的利好消息將對美元構成壓力，因為美元是避險貨幣。”
美元指數持平於 99.17，歐元兌美元上漲 0.03% 至 1.1634 美元，英鎊兌美元上漲 0.07% 至 1.346 美元。
衝突爆發之初（2月28日），美元曾經一度走強，主要得益於避險需求以及美國經濟受能源價格上漲引發的通膨影響相對較小。然而，由於衝突走向的不確定性，美元已回吐了部分漲幅。

日本財務大臣片山五月週二表示，當局已做好準備，根據需要對外匯市場做出反應，並拒絕就近期的匯率波動發表評論。
片山發表演說後，日圓兌美元下跌0.02%，至1美元兌159.66日圓，市場普遍認為160關口是介入的觸發點。
瑞穗證券首席貨幣策略師山本正文表示：“如果美元/日元突破160，突破4月30日高點的風險將顯著增加，從而可能出現更強烈的口頭警告，並引發新一輪的利率檢查或實際幹預。”

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”