2026/3/19

黃金新聞

金價仍徘徊在每盎司5,000美元以下，預計今年利率仍將走低

由於聯準會在周三的貨幣政策會議上維持利率不變，但同時暗示到 2026 年利率仍將走低，黃金市場繼續難以站穩腳跟。
如預期，聯準會維持利率不變，利率區間仍為3.50%至3.75%。然而，最新的經濟預測顯示，聯準會預計到年底利率將降至3.4%，這意味著今年至少會有一次降息。
利率預測與12月份的預測持平。

一些經濟學家認為，更新後的預測比預期略微偏鴿派；由於持續的通膨，市場原本預期會更加鷹派。
聯準會並未提供太多前瞻性指引，但對經濟健康狀況持樂觀態度。
「現有指標表明，經濟活動一直在穩步擴張，」央行在貨幣政策聲明中表示。 “中東局勢的發展對美國經濟的影響尚不明朗。委員會密切關注其雙重使命所面臨的風險。”

聯準會更為微妙的立場並未引起黃金市場的太大反應。現貨黃金最新報每盎司4,887.90美元，當日下跌超過2%。
整體而言，央行更新後的經濟預測顯示，委員會對經濟成長持樂觀態度，並認為對通膨上升的影響有限。

美元新聞

先是石油危機，現在又是美元走強？

中東戰爭意味著投資者不僅要考慮更高的油價，還要考慮美元走強，而這比許多人年初預期的要高。
自2月28日美以對伊朗發動攻擊引發地區衝突並幾乎封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，導致全球近五分之一的石油供應中斷以來，美元已成為最明顯的「避險」贏家之一。

美元表現遠超其他所有貨幣，包括瑞士法郎和日元，並且大幅優於美國國債和黃金等其他傳統避險資產。突然之間，先前對美元2026年走勢悲觀的普遍預期顯得非常過時。
美元意外走強可能產生深遠影響，波及全球貿易、經濟成長和市場。在其他條件不變的情況下，美元走強會收緊金融環境，削弱美國企業獲利，並拖累全球貿易。新興經濟體若背負以美元計價的債務，尤其脆弱。
美元的避險吸引力不難理解。美國能源自給自足，因此不太容易受到汽油價格飆升的威脅，儘管美國原油價格已超過每桶90美元，但它並非完全不受影響。

然而，日本的情況要糟糕得多，因為它幾乎全部依賴進口能源。這削弱了日圓在此次危機中的吸引力，而瑞士國家銀行也警告稱，將出手幹預，以限制瑞士法郎的任何過度上漲。
同時，自戰爭爆發以來，美國股市和債市表現良好。華爾街的優異表現特別引人注目，美國國債相對於其他已開發債券市場，特別是英國國債，也表現優異。
綜合所有因素來看，美元前景突然變得光明得多。美元指數（.DXY）開啟新分頁 衡量其對一籃子主要貨幣價值的廣泛指標—美元指數，本月已上漲2%。雖然這種升值速度不太可能持續，但如果戰爭或其後續影響持續到夏季或更久，美元仍有可能進一步上漲。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”