2026/2/9

黃金新聞

黃金和白銀價格的波動令人神經緊張

無論從哪個歷史角度來看，近期黃金和白銀的價格走勢都令許多投資者感到不安。曾經在貴金屬市場看來不可思議的日內波動如今已成為常態，這挑戰了人們長期以來對黃金在動盪時期作為穩定力量的固有認知。
然而，許多分析師認為，在這種波動之下，市場並非崩潰，而是在進行重新調整。

每日交易區間已擴大到危機時期以外鮮見的水平，而白銀的劇烈波動更加劇了市場的混亂感。儘管如此，這種動盪是在一輪非凡上漲之後發生的。黃金在短短幾週內創下了十幾個歷史新高，而白銀也飆升至令市場過度飽和的高位。
從這個角度來看，目前的調整和盤整不僅是可以預見的，而且是必要的。儘管市場已從上週的歷史高點回落，但價格似乎逐漸適應每盎司4,500美元至5,000美元的區間波動。儘管金價波動劇烈，本週仍勉強上漲了1%。
分析師強調，近期的拋售並不代表黃金長期前景的結構性轉變，而是反映了市場在經歷了異常強勁的上漲後釋放了投機過剩的資金。重要的是，金價已從低點大幅反彈，顯示即使槓桿部位被清倉，潛在需求依然強勁。

這種需求並非主要來自短期交易者。各國央行繼續以歷史高點增持黃金，而實體需求——尤其是在印度和中國等關鍵市場——儘管波動劇烈，依然保持韌性。同時，投資者對黃金的配置比例仍然相對較低，如果宏觀經濟不確定性持續存在，機構投資者仍有增加參與的空間。
這有助於解釋為何看漲預測並未隨著金價上漲勢頭的減弱而消失。各大銀行持續預測，到年底金價將接近每盎司6,000美元。這些預測並非主要基於短期價格走勢，而是更依賴較緩慢的結構性因素，包括不斷上升的主權債務、財政失衡、地緣政治風險以及逐步去美元化。

美元新聞

日圓貶值加劇

週一亞洲早盤交易中，日圓延續了近期的一系列跌勢，此前日本首相高市早苗在周日的選舉中大獲全勝，這為進一步的財政刺激措施鋪平了道路。
日圓兌美元匯率一度下跌0.3%，至157.72日圓，連續第七個交易日走低，觸及兩週以來的最低水準。

高市惠介預計將為她的自民黨贏得眾議院465個席位中的328個席位。加上她的執政聯盟夥伴維新黨，高市惠介目前擁有三分之二的絕對多數席位，這使她能夠凌駕於她並不控制的參議院之上。
「自民黨的壓倒性勝利消除了政治上的不確定性，加強了政策執行，但也使市場關注的焦點完全轉移到了財政政策的設計和溝通方式上，」瑞穗銀行東京利率和外匯首席策略師大森昭樹表示。
他補充說：“財政擴張帶來的風險在大選前就已經基本被市場消化。現在的關鍵問題是，這些風險是會加劇還是會逐漸消退。”

衡量美元兌一籃子六種貨幣強弱的美元指數最新報97.683，與前一日持平。本週開始，將有幾項重要數據公佈，包括零售銷售、通膨以及週三延遲發布的就業報告。
交易員們正在加大對聯準會今年稍後放鬆貨幣政策的押注。根據芝加哥商品交易所集團（CME Group）的FedWatch工具顯示，聯邦基金期貨目前隱含的聯準會在3月18日舉行的為期兩天的會議上降息25個基點的機率為19.9%，高於上週五的18.4%。
英鎊兌美元匯率最新下跌0.1%，報1.3598美元，市場正密切關注圍繞英國首相基爾·斯塔默的政治危機進展。史塔默的幕僚長摩根·麥克斯威尼於週日辭職。麥克斯威尼表示，他承認自己曾建議史塔默任命彼得·曼德森為英國駐美大使，儘管曼德森與傑弗瑞·愛潑斯坦關係密切。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”