2026/8/21

黃金新聞

黃金是必備資產

據 ByteTree 首席投資官兼創始人 Charlie Morris 稱，美國政府實際上正在進行多項重大量化寬鬆操作，因此黃金價格上漲，未來還有很大的上漲空間。
在最新的 Atlas Pulse 黃金報告中，莫里斯表示，財政部長斯科特·貝森特將財政部長期國債的購買量增加一倍的新舉措，是為了降低政府的借貸成本。
他寫道：“黃金走勢正在改善。我們可能還沒來得及拼出‘滯脹’這個詞，金價就會重回200日移動均線之上。”

莫里斯指出，美國公共債務最近達到了 40 兆美元，其成長率從 20 世紀 90 年代的每年 3.7% 上升到疫情前的每年 7.8%，疫情後又上升到每年 8.6%。
他指出：“一個世紀以來，全球地上黃金供應總值一直與美國未償債務總額保持同步增長。黃金供應量每年只能增長約2%，因此金價必須承擔其餘的增長責任。”
莫里斯表示，在大蕭條時期、20 世紀 70 年代的通貨膨脹危機、信貸危機以及今​​天，黃金相對於債務的價值都非常高。

「全球黃金價值31兆美元，相當於美國債務的77%。這一比例曾多次超過100%，因此仍有上漲空間，」他說。 “別忘了，此次重估是在8.6%的債務增長率之上發生的。”
但全球黃金儲備僅占美國股票總市值的37%，莫里斯認為這數字還有很大的成長空間。 “在大蕭條和20世紀70年代，這一比例曾達到160%，是目前的4倍。”
他說：“我們知道存在債務問題，因為債務增長速度超過了名義GDP（6.5%），這種情況遲早會變得不可持續。更重要的是，美國財政部長和索羅斯學院的宏觀對沖基金經理斯科特·貝森特正在幹預市場。”

美元新聞

全球債券市場就財政和通膨風險向各國政府發出警告

由於政府債務膨脹和地緣政治因素，週二美國對德國和日本的長期借貸成本達到數十年來的最高水平，這提高了企業和家庭的借貸成本，並使政策變得更加複雜。
由於美國總統川普的政策——從關稅到戰爭——顛覆了全球秩序，債券市場正進入一個通膨和利率前景更加不確定、上行風險更大的時代。
已開發國家的債務水準正逼近越來越難以持續的臨界點，美國債務總額已接近40兆美元。伊朗戰爭持續不斷，推高油價和通貨膨脹，並衝擊全球經濟成長。

此外，科技公司為建設人工智慧基礎設施而進行的大規模借貸，與對政府公債的需求形成競爭。
凱投宏觀首席市場經濟學家喬納斯·戈爾特曼表示，債券殖利率近期的飆升「表明投資者對財政揮霍失去了耐心」。
但他表示，這“完全在意料之中：幾個主要經濟體的財政前景堪憂，而政界人士似乎並沒有什麼意願來解決這個問題。”

週二早些時候，受油價重回90美元以上、加劇通膨擔憂以及美伊和平希望破滅的影響，全球規模最大、系統重要性最高的政府債券市場——美國30年期公債殖利率觸及2007年以來的最高水平。午後交易中，收益率有所回落。
高收益率可能會對家庭、企業、金融市場和聯邦預算造成壓力。
道明銀行分析師根納季‧戈德堡在一份研究報告中寫道：「我們認為長期債券市場已經遭受了『千刀萬剮』之苦。」他列舉了一系列利率上升的原因。他寫道：“投資者信心不足可能導致收益率在短期內持續承壓。”

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.