2026/7/8

黃金新聞

金銀價格下跌

週二北美交易時段，現貨黃金和白銀價格走弱，美國國債收益率上升、美元走強以及霍爾木茲海峽襲擊事件再度升級，抵消了上週疲軟的非農就業報告給金屬帶來的支撐。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,127.10美元，下跌0.04%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司60.859美元，與前一日基本持平。紐約商品交易所（Comex）近月黃金結算價為每盎司4,145.30美元，下跌0.24%；近月白銀結算價為每盎司60.931美元，下跌1.60%。

黃金價格回落至4,200美元區域下方，該區域曾是非農數據公佈後金價反彈的瓶頸；白銀價格在未能守住62美元關口後，結束了此前連續四個交易日的上漲勢頭。金屬板塊目前仍處於盤整階段：美國就業市場疲軟支撐了金價的下跌，但市場仍需收益率走低或美元走軟才能將非農業數據公佈後的上漲行情轉化為更清晰的趨勢延續。
週四公佈的6月就業報告後，市場部位仍支撐金屬價格，但與數據公佈後的首次反應相比，支撐力道減弱。 6月非農就業人數增加5.7萬人，低於市場普遍預期的11.5萬人；失業率降至4.2%；4月及5月非農就業人數合計調降7.4萬人。這降低了市場對聯準會近期升息的緊迫性，但週二的市場走勢又將通膨風險推回利率通道。由於霍爾木茲海峽再度遭受攻擊，油價上漲，10年期美國公債殖利率上升至4.549%，2年期公債殖利率上升至4.185%，黃金價格在疲軟的就業數據和更高的名目殖利率背景下承壓。

霍爾木茲海峽的局勢目前可概括為：船隻通行開放，但攻擊風險不斷升級。 24小時內，三艘油輪在海峽內或附近遭到攻擊，其中包括一艘起火的卡達液化天然氣運輸船。同時，伊朗官方媒體繼續聲稱，只有伊朗批准的航線才是安全的。美國撤銷了伊朗60天的石油銷售許可證，這又增加了製裁帶來的航運風險。油價有所波動，但並未顯示出海峽咽喉要道被關閉的跡象：週二交易中，布蘭特原油上漲約1.6%至每桶73.11美元，WTI原油上漲約1.5%至每桶69.59美元。目前對黃金的影響喜憂參半：襲擊事件增加了地緣政治因素的支撐，但原油價格上漲也加劇了通膨風險，推高了收益率，並限制了避險資金流入帶來的收益。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格上漲，交易價格在每桶69.59美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶73.11美元。美元指數走強。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.5%附近交易。

美元新聞

美國恢復對伊朗的攻擊後，美元升至一周高點

週三亞洲交易時段開盤，美元兌大多數主要貨幣維持在本週最高水平，原因是美國再次對伊朗發動襲擊，加劇了地緣政治緊張局勢，並推高了油價。
衡量美元兌一籃子六種貨幣強弱的美元指數報101.18，為7月2日以來的最高水準。

在美國週二對伊朗發動新一輪打擊並撤銷伊朗石油銷售許可證後，避險貨幣的需求激增。此前，三艘油輪在霍爾木茲海峽遭到攻擊。
西太平洋銀行分析師在研究報告中寫道，伊朗襲擊霍爾木茲海峽船隻後，人們對和平協議穩定性的擔憂再次浮現。他們寫道：“通膨前景成為關注焦點，全球收益率普遍走高。”
週三亞洲交易時段開始時，布蘭特原油上漲2.6%，至每桶76.12美元，延續了連續第二天的漲勢。

在新西蘭儲備銀行稍後將做出決定之前，紐西蘭元上漲 0.1%，至 0.5681 美元。市場普遍預期，紐西蘭儲備銀行將在稍後做出決定，將三年多來首次升息。
美元兌日圓上漲0.1%，至162.28日圓。日本央行理事淺田東一郎是6月央行升息決定中唯一持反對意見者，他週一告訴路透社，他必須看到需求驅動型通膨的跡象，才會支持進一步升息。
歐元兌美元下跌0.1%至1.1405美元，英鎊兌美元小幅下跌0.1%至1.3353美元，澳幣兌美元維持0.6926美元。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”