2026/2/4

黃金新聞

黃金和白銀維持強勁漲勢，風險偏好略有減弱

週二美國午盤交易時段，黃金和白銀價格大幅上漲，多頭積極買入近期價格的大幅下跌。今日兩種貴金屬的上漲也得益於整體市場風險偏好的回落，美國交易時段的風險偏好較隔夜下降。美元指數走軟和原油價格走強也對金銀價格構成利多。 4月交割的黃金期貨價格上漲308.70美元，至每盎司4,959.00美元。 3月交割的白銀期貨價格上漲11.106美元，至每盎司88.17美元。

由於聯邦政府部分停擺，美國月度就業報告和其他經濟數據將推遲發布。美國勞工統計局週一表示，由於聯邦政府部分停擺，原定於本週五發布的1月就業報告將不會如期發布。勞工統計局負責出版物和特別研究的副局長艾米麗·利德爾在一份聲明中表示：「一旦政府恢復撥款，報告將重新安排發佈時間。」她還表示：「由於聯邦政府部分停擺，勞工統計局將暫停數據收集、處理和發布。」彭博社報道稱，本週計劃發布的其他報告，包括12月份的職位和勞動力流動調查以及大就業今日有報道稱，川普總統向共和黨議員施壓，要求他們努力結束政府停擺，而且川普似乎取得了成功，因為報道稱美國政府將於今日重新開放。

從技術角度來看，上週4月黃金期貨價格走勢在日線圖上形成了一個強勁的看跌“關鍵反轉”，這是市場見頂的一個跡象。

美元新聞

美元混亂如何成為全球投資者的警鐘

作為世界第一大儲備貨幣，美元正經歷著一段動盪時期，難以預測的白宮政策舉措和對聯準會獨立性的擔憂，導致「出售美國」的交易再次出現。
儘管預計美元會進一步走弱，但美元的突然反彈與美元的突然暴跌一樣，都可能讓交易者措手不及。

1 月份，衡量美元對其他主要貨幣價值的指數在一周內下跌近 2%，跌至四年來的最低點，隨後反彈，引發金屬市場動盪。
美國總統川普決定提名聯準會前理事凱文沃什接替即將卸任的聯準會主席鮑威爾後，美元在過去兩個交易日反彈，引發了金屬市場暴跌。

黃金在1月創下半個多世紀以來的最佳單月表現後，週一下跌5%，此前一天曾創下自20世紀80年代初以來的最大單日跌幅——儘管週二有所回升。
交易員曾蜂擁而至，追逐一種流行的貨幣貶值交易策略，該策略依賴金屬價格上漲，因為聯準會的獨立性將使美元持續走弱。法國興業銀行在客戶報告中指出，這種策略隨後在幾天內「以閃電般的速度」從金屬市場消失。
白銀和銅價也從近期歷史高點大幅下跌，而布蘭特原油在1月上漲16%後，即將迎來近兩個月來最糟糕的一周。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”