2026/4/1

黃金新聞

受避險需求推動，黃金和白銀大幅上漲

由於中東戰事至今仍未見緩和跡象，交易員和投資者本周初加大了避險買盤，今日美國午盤黃金和白銀價格大幅上漲。全球公債價格下跌、原油價格上漲、美元指數走軟，也是提振這兩種貴金屬價格的外在因素。 6月黃金期貨最新上漲90美元，至每盎司4,647美元；5月白銀期貨上漲3.566美元，至每盎司74.13美元。

今天也是本月和本季的最後一個交易日，從技術分析的角度來看，這是一個特別重要的交易日。

主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格穩定上漲，交易價格約105美元。美元指數今日下跌。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前約4.3%。
從技術層面來看，4月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上漲目標是突破4,750美元的強勁阻力位。空頭的下一個短期下跌目標是跌破3月低點4100美元的強勁技術支撐位。

美元新聞

川普稱伊朗戰爭可能很快結束後，美元保持穩定

週三，美元走勢基本上持穩，避險需求帶來的漲幅逐漸消退。美國總統川普表示，與伊朗的戰爭可能在幾週內結束，但有關這場衝突的相互矛盾的信號仍令投資者感到不安。
日圓兌美元匯率已從年內低點160.46反彈，重新站上具有重要心理意義的160關口，此前該關口曾引發市場對日本當局幹預的擔憂。歐元兌美元匯率則觸及一週多來的高點。
衡量美元兌包括日圓和歐元在內的一籃子貨幣的美元指數下跌0.03%至99.70，歐元兌美元上漲0.21%至1.1576美元。
日圓兌美元上漲0.11%，至1美元兌158.55日圓。先前日本央行公佈的季度短觀調查顯示，截至3月份的三個月內，日本大型製造商的商業信心有所改善，這表明中東衝突帶來的日益加劇的經濟不確定性尚未打擊企業信心，日圓匯率因此保持穩定。

自 2 月下旬衝突爆發以來，美元一直受益於避險需求，而且作為能源淨出口國的美國，在應對石油供應中斷方面也比其他國家更有優勢。
Capital.com 高級金融市場分析師 Kyle Rodda 表示：“雖然新聞頭條推動風險資產小幅上漲，但戰爭狀況及其對基本面的影響尚未發生實質性改變，隔夜的市場波動很可能很快逆轉。”

川普週二表示，美國可能在兩到三週內結束對伊朗的軍事行動。此前一天，《華爾街日報》報道稱，美國總統告訴助手，即使至關重要的霍爾木茲海峽航運通道仍然基本關閉，且未來何時重新開放也尚不明朗，他仍然願意結束對伊朗的軍事行動。
白宮表示，川普將於美國東部時間週三晚上 9 點（格林尼治標準時間週四凌晨 1 點）向全國發表講話，「提供有關伊朗的重要最新情況」。
同時，美國國防部長皮特·赫格塞斯表示，接下來幾天對伊朗的戰爭將是決定性的，並警告德黑蘭，如果不達成協議，衝突將會加劇，同時指出衝突有升級的跡象。
本周美國經濟的主要關注點將是周五公佈的3月就業報告。根據路透社調查的經濟學家預測中位數顯示，該報告預計將顯示，繼2月意外減少9.2萬個工作機會之後，當月雇主新增了6萬個工作機會。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”