2026/3/25

黃金新聞

各國央行對通膨上升導致金價承壓的反應

加拿大一家銀行表示，由於通膨擔憂加劇和美元走強打擊了投資者情緒，黃金價格短期內可能面臨困境，但從長遠來看，更廣泛的宏觀經濟背景仍然支撐著這種貴金屬。
TD Securities 大宗商品策略主管 Bart Melek 在接受 Kitco News 採訪時表示，雖然地緣政治緊張局勢通常會支撐黃金價格，但目前市場主要受債券收益率上升以及央行將長期維持緊縮貨幣政策的預期所主導。
「歸根結底，一切都與利率有關，」他說道，並補充說，在日益加劇的地緣政治危機中，黃金未能出現實質上漲，這凸顯了這種金屬對實際收益率的敏感性再次增強。

儘管投資人通常將黃金視為對沖通膨的工具，但梅萊克表示，僅靠通膨本身不足以推高金價。相反，通膨與利率之間的關係才是最重要的。
「黃金投資者總是說通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹——這沒錯，但這還不夠，」他說。 “真正重要的是其他資產的相對價值，主要是國債的價值。”
石油是目前影響這種關係的關鍵因素。

梅萊克指出，受中東衝突升級的影響，原油價格大幅上漲，加劇了通膨壓力，並使聯準會的政策前景更加複雜。道明證券估計，油價每上漲10%，通膨率就會上升約0.2個百分點。
他警告說，由於油價已經上漲了約 60%，持續上漲可能會大幅推高通膨。
「如果這種情況持續一年,這可能會使通貨膨脹率再上升100個基點，」他說。
這種動態對黃金至關重要，因為能源成本上漲導致的通膨上升並不會自動轉化為金價上漲。相反，它可能迫使各國央行維持甚至收緊貨幣政策，從而推高債券殖利率並走強美元——而這兩者通常都對黃金不利。

美元新聞

美元可望上漲

週一，由於中東危機中報復性威脅升級，美元有望反彈，這抑制了風險情緒，並提振了對避險資產的需求。
週五，美元收盤走低，錄得自伊朗戰爭爆發以來的首次週線下跌，原因是油價飆升推高通膨，促使各國央行轉向鷹派立場。澳元早盤走低，此前股市開盤走低。

週末期間，人們對海灣地區停止敵對行動的希望變得渺茫，美國總統唐納德·川普威脅要打擊伊朗的電網，而德黑蘭則誓言要對鄰國的能源和水利系統進行反擊。
澳洲國民銀行貨幣策略師羅德里戈·卡特里爾在播客節目中表示：“市場正在接受這樣一種觀點：那些從能源供應中獲得積極衝擊的國家和經濟體，其表現可能會優於那些遭受負面供應衝擊的國家和經濟體。”
“所以你會看到歐元和日元表現不佳。而且，如果這場衝突持續時間過長，你可能會認為這些貨幣受到的衝擊會更大。”
美元指數（衡量美元兌一籃子貨幣的匯率）上漲0.03%，至99.53。歐元兌美元下跌0.06%，至1.1563美元。
日圓兌美元上漲0.06%，至159.11日圓；英鎊兌美元下跌0.06%，至1.3331美元。

川普週六晚間再次向伊朗發出威脅，而就在不到一天前，他還暗示美國可能考慮結束與伊朗的衝突。伊朗則誓言將對鄰國的基礎設施進行報復性打擊，並表示霍爾木茲海峽的石油運輸航道將繼續關閉。
該地區民用基礎設施可能遭受針鋒相對的打擊，這威脅到數百萬依賴海水淡化廠獲取飲用水的人們的生計。週日凌晨，以色列各地響起空襲警報，警告伊朗可能發射飛彈。
在2月底美以對伊朗爆發戰爭之前，投資人已預期聯準會今年會降息兩次。但現在他們普遍認為降息一次的可能性不大，其他主要央行的立場也變得更加鷹派。
聯準會上周如預期維持利率不變，但主席鮑威爾表示，現在判斷戰爭對經濟的影響範圍和持續時間還為時過早。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”