2026/10/12

黃金新聞

黃金價格測試4,200美元關口

週五美國交易時段尾盤，現貨 黃金和 白銀價格大幅上漲。早盤美元走軟、本周美國公債殖利率從極端高點回落以及逢低買盤的湧入，共同推動金屬價格從周中的拋售潮中反彈。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,194.50美元，當日上漲1.50%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司6,0700美元，上漲2.77%。
北美股市收高，結束了波動劇烈的一周，整體呈現普遍上漲趨勢。標普500指數上漲46.18點，漲幅0.6%，收在7811.54點；道瓊工業指數上漲423.31點，漲幅0.8%，收在51654.95點；那斯達克指數上漲172.83點，漲幅0.6%，收在27366.17點；羅素2000指數上漲12.85點，漲幅0.5%，收在2806.98點。

歐洲股市也收高，伊朗罷工擔憂緩解、金屬價格走強以及債券市場壓力降低提振了市場風險偏好。斯托克歐洲600指數上漲0.97%。德國DAX指數上漲1.13%，收25,087.30點；英國富時100指數上漲1.06%，收於10,552.00點；法國CAC 40指數上漲0.95%，收在7,803.33點；義大利富時MIB指數上漲0.91%，收在7,746.33點；義大利富時MIB指數上漲0.91%，收於4306.33點。
市場對10月的鷹派情緒減弱，但仍面臨12月貨幣政策收緊的風險。 10月份密西根大學消費者信心指數初值從9月的48.1降至46.3，而未來一年的通膨預期升至4.7%，長期通膨預期升至3.5%。這些因素強化了市場對經濟成長放緩的預期，但也讓聯準會的通膨預期保持活躍。 9月非農就業人數僅增加2.9萬人，失業率維持在4.2%，7月和8月的非農就業人數合計下調了6萬人。交易員預計10月升息的可能性約為19%，12月份至少升息25個基點的可能性為84%。 10年期美國公債殖利率收在5.24%附近，美元指數維持在102.10附近。

接下來的幾項重​​要考驗是周三公佈的9月CPI、週四公佈的9月PPI以及週五公佈的進出口價格。通膨走軟將支撐金價，因為這驗證了非農就業成長放緩的趨勢；而CPI或PPI數據走高則會加劇12月升息的風險，並給金價帶來實際利率下行壓力。
儘管近期打擊伊朗的擔憂有所緩解，但霍爾木茲海峽和美伊局勢仍然是供應風險的一大隱患。此前，美國總統川普表示，華盛頓正與德黑蘭進行富有成效的磋商，並且不會在11月3日中期選舉前對伊朗發動攻擊。同時，伊朗正在評估美國對其提出的七天內重新開放霍爾木茲海峽的提議的回應。受此影響，油價最初下跌。但截至收盤，壓力並未消散：海灣和霍爾木茲海峽的航運威脅有所增加；戰前，該水道承載著全球約20%的石油和燃料運輸；美國對17艘與伊朗能源運輸相關的船隻實施了新的製裁；颶風「伊薩亞斯」導緻美國墨西哥灣沿岸超過130萬桶/日沿岸的石油產量中斷。布蘭特原油結算價為每桶104.72美元，上漲0.42%；WTI原油結算價為每桶91.85美元，上漲0.39%。對於黃金而言，市場走勢依然喜憂參半：短期罷工風險的降低削弱了避險需求，但原油價格高企、柴油供應緊張以及油輪運輸風險，使得通膨預期、收益率和防禦性需求繼續支撐著金屬交易。

美元新聞

油價下跌導緻美元走軟

由於油價下跌導緻美元走軟，英鎊週五上漲。預計本週英鎊兌美元匯率變動不大，但兌歐元匯率走強。
過去兩週，受能源價格上漲推動，全球債券殖利率大幅上升，導致外匯市場動盪不安。

由於法國國債殖利率飆升，歐元遭受重創，而對該國預算赤字的擔憂加劇了這一局面；與此同時，對避險資產的尋求推高了美元。
然而，油價下跌幫助全球債券殖利率脫離了數十年來的高位，並緩解了貨幣壓力，美元走低。
英鎊兌美元匯率最新上漲0.1%，報1.324美元。週四，由於美元走強，英鎊兌美元匯率跌至1.3184美元，接近6月下旬以來的最低水準。
英鎊兌歐元匯率變化不大，歐元兌英鎊匯率為 84.74 便士。
英鎊兌歐元預計將連續第二週上漲，此前英鎊上周大幅反彈，並在周三觸及 2025 年 6 月以來的最高點，即每歐元 84.49 便士。

美國總統川普表示，美國不會在下個月的美國大選前攻擊伊朗，並稱已與德黑蘭就戰爭問題進行了富有成效的會談。受此消息影響，布蘭特原油價格下跌1%，至每桶103.30美元。
投資銀行荷蘭國際集團表示，由於能源價格支撐了聯準會進一步升息的理由，美元可能會保持強勢，其他貨幣將面臨壓力。
ING 貨幣策略師 Francesco Pesole 表示：“我們沒有看到美元出現更廣泛調整的跡象。”
“儘管墨西哥灣石油供應有所改善，但石油市場仍不願將地緣政治溢價計入價格，正是這種溢價使得油價一直保持在每桶100美元以上。”

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.