2026/3/27

黃金新聞

受地緣政治緊張局勢影響，黃金價格承壓

隨著中東地緣政治緊張局勢升級，黃金價格未能像傳統的避險資產那樣表現；然而，據一家美國銀行稱，這種貴金屬受到近期宏觀經濟逆風的影響，但其長期前景並未惡化。
富國銀行在其最新的全球投資策略報告中指出，黃金價格出現反直覺的回調，是因為投資者正在應對複雜的宏觀環境，其中較高的利率、更強勢的美元和不斷上升的實際收益率超過了地緣政治風險。
富國銀行表示： “美元飆升、美國國債收益率走高以及降息預期承壓，都對黃金構成了強勁的不利因素。”

這些評論發表之際，金價正經歷自1983年以來最嚴重的連跌。自1月底觸及每盎司5,600美元的歷史高點以來，金價已下跌近22%。現貨黃金最新交易價格為每盎司4,391.50美元，當日下跌近2.7%。
戰爭初期，黃金價格曾短暫上漲，但隨著投資人重新評估利率預期，避險資金流入支撐美元，黃金的避險需求迅速消退。
富國銀行強調，實質殖利率上升對黃金尤其不利，因為這會增加持有無收益資產的機會成本。
持續的通膨擔憂加劇了這種局面，而能源價格上漲又進一步推高了通膨。衝突一度將油價推高至每桶100美元以上，加劇了人們對各國央行將長期維持緊縮政策的擔憂。

儘管黃金近期走勢疲軟，但富國銀行表示，從長遠來看，它仍然堅定看好黃金。
該銀行預測，到 2026 年底，在央行持續需求以及收益率和美元最終趨於溫和的推動下，金價將達到每盎司 6,100 美元至 6,300 美元之間。
分析師也強調，央行的購買規模仍遠高於長期平均水平，為需求提供了結構性支撐。
展望未來，富國銀行預計與伊朗的戰爭對經濟的影響有限，隨著通膨壓力最終緩解和國債殖利率在今年稍後走低，黃金價格面臨的主要不利因素也將消除。

美元新聞

英鎊走勢穩定，交易員對結束伊朗戰爭的努力仍持謹慎態度

週三，英鎊走勢平穩，交易員們對結束美國和以色列對伊朗戰爭的努力持謹慎態度，因為他們正在評估這場衝突可能帶來的經濟影響。
英鎊兌美元匯率最新報1.3402美元，變動不大。
週三，以色列和伊朗互相發動空襲，伊朗軍方駁斥了美國總統唐納德·川普關於華盛頓正在與德黑蘭進行直接談判以結束戰爭的說法。
油價回落，布蘭特原油期貨價格最新下跌約5.4%，至每桶95.82美元。

同時，官方數據顯示，英國2月消費者物價通膨率維持在3%，與1月持平。但隨著中東戰爭推高物價，預計2月消費者物價通膨率將大幅上漲。
「今天的通膨報告只不過是伊朗衝突前世界的遺物。雖然2月份的報告基本上符合預期，並證實通膨率正朝著2%的目標回升，但通膨前景已經發生了根本性變化，」安本投資副首席經濟學家盧克·巴塞洛繆表示。
自伊朗戰爭爆發以來，隨著油價飆升，通膨預期也急劇上升。
週二公佈的一項調查顯示，中東戰爭正在影響英國經濟，該調查顯示，3月份英國商業活動增速為六個月來最慢，製造商投入成本環比增速為1992年以來最大。

隨著經濟預期的變化，英國央行的利率預測也隨之改變。
市場先前預期英國央行在4月的下次會議升息的可能性約為67%，並預測到年底前至少會升息兩次。在中東衝突爆發之前，市場曾預期英國央行今年會降息兩次。
然而，許多經濟學家似乎比市場對潛在的升息更為謹慎。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”