2026/8/14

黃金新聞

黃金結束了連續四天的漲勢

週四下午美國交易時段，現貨 黃金和 白銀價格走低。一份較溫和的批發通膨報告降低了美國公債殖利率和升息預期，但也減少了市場對金屬作為短期通膨對沖工具的需求。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,349.80美元，下跌1.31%；現貨白銀交易價格為每盎司64.290美元，下跌1.40%。

北美股市收高。標普500指數上漲0.7%，收在創紀錄的7,798.99點；那斯達克指數上漲0.8%，收在26803.03點；道瓊工業指數上漲0.1%，收在53839.99點；羅素2000指數上漲0.2%，收在3052.85點。歐洲股市漲跌互現，最終略為走強。泛歐斯托克600指數早盤上漲0.2%；德國DAX指數上漲0.35%；法國CAC 40指數上漲0.2%；倫敦富時100指數下跌0.3%，原因是疲軟的礦業股拖累了英國基準股指。
今天早上公佈的PPI和初請失業金人數數據進一步加劇了市場對聯準會9月維持利率不變的預期。7月最終需求PPI與預期持平，低於先前0.2%的漲幅；生產者物價指數（PPI）較去年同期上漲4.7%。剔除食品、能源和貿易服務價格後的核心PCE月增0.4%，較去年同期上漲4.7%，這令市場對核心PCE的傳導效應仍持謹慎態度。初請失業金人數增加9,000人，達20.9萬人；持續申領失業金人數降至177.7萬人。 PPI數據公佈後，9月升息的可能性從40.6%降至34.6%，10年美國公債殖利率從週三的4.686%降至4.648%。接下來的宏觀經濟考驗將是週五美東時間上午8:30公佈的7月零售銷售數據，以及美東時間上午10:00公佈的密西根大學8月消費者信心指數初值。

霍爾木茲海峽仍然是影響石油、通膨預期和防禦性需求的主要地緣政治通道，但週四疲軟的需求訊號抑制了其對市場的衝擊。美國和伊朗的立場依然僵持不下，華盛頓方面表示海峽暢通，而區域當局則表示，在伊朗的條件被接受之前，海峽通行仍受到限制。由於需求預期下調，油價下跌，布蘭特原油價格下跌2.1%，至每桶87.07美元。對於黃金而言，情況依然是雙刃劍：原油價格和收益率的下降會緩解聯準會對通膨的推動作用，但持續的航運限制為能源風險提供了地緣政治支撐，並限制了防禦性部位的下行空間。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走低，每桶81.50美元附近交易，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶87.07美元。美元指數在交易時段尾盤漲跌互現，最終走強。 （Kitco全球指數顯示了今日黃金價格波動中美元走勢相對於黃金市場本身的影響程度。）基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.6%附近交易。

美元新聞

日本可能加大日圓幹預力度，加快日本央行升息步伐

東京前首席外匯外交官古澤光弘表示，日本可能「隨時」進行日圓聯合幹預，並暗示可能以比預期更快的速度升息，以阻止日圓下跌。
古澤表示，日圓目前的水平“顯然太弱”，推高了進口成本，損害了經濟。他還補充說，如果日圓回到上個月東京和華盛頓聯合幹預之前的水平，兩國可能會再次出手幹預。
「這可能不是在美元兌日圓匯率達到160或162時進行幹預的問題。但隨時可能再次進行幹預，包括與美國採取協調行動，」他在周四接受路透社採訪時表示。

東京與華盛頓的協調幹預推動日圓兌美元匯率從40年來的低點163.99升至155.20左右。此後，日圓兌美元匯率回落至159.50左右。
古澤表示，幹預只能爭取時間，要扭轉日圓下跌趨勢，還需要採取更根本的措施，例如日本央行加快升息。古澤與日本和海外的現任政策制定者保持密切聯繫。
古澤表示：「大多數市場參與者認為日本央行將在9月升息，我認為它應該升息。」不過，更重要的是央行要傳達加快升息步伐的可能性。

自 2024 年結束長達十年的大規模刺激計畫以來，日本央行以每年約兩次的速度提高利率，包括 6 月將利率提高到 31 年來的最高點 1%。
「根據日本央行對中性利率（即既不會抑制也不會刺激經濟成長的利率水準）在 1.1% 到 2.5% 之間的估計，我的猜測是，日本央行希望將利率提高到 1.5% 到 1.75% 左右，」古澤說。
「9 月之後，下一步措施可能會在 12 月或 1 月進行，然後，如果經濟成長勢頭不減弱，那麼在下一個財政年度（從 2027 年 4 月開始）的某個時候還會再次升息，」他說。
美國財政部長斯科特貝森特的暗示以及日本央行一系列鷹派言論，已鎖定9月升息的可能性。根據東京財經數據顯示，市場目前認為9月升息的可能性為76%，而7月30日這一比例僅24%。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.