2025/7/8

黃金新聞

黃金、白銀走弱，但較盤中低點回升

週一美國午盤，黃金和白銀價格小幅下跌，但遠高於早盤低點。由於交易員/投資者在整體市場中的風險偏好有所改善，上週推動美國主要股指創下歷史新高，這些避險金屬在本周初面臨溫和的拋售壓力。 8 月黃金期貨價格最新下跌 8.30 美元，至 3,334.90 美元。 9 月白銀期貨價格最新下跌 0.224 美元，至 36.86 美元。

金磚國家（巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非）峰會本週在裡約開幕，由巴西主辦。川普總統警告稱，與金磚國家結盟並推行「反美」政策的國家可能面臨進一步的關稅風險。金屬市場觀察家正密切關注此次峰會，因為它將對金價產生長期影響。

今日關鍵的外部市場表現為美元指數走強。紐約商品交易所原油期貨價格走強，交易價格約每桶68.00美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前為4.358%。
從技術面來看，8月黃金期貨多頭擁有整體近期技術優勢。多頭的下一個上行價格目標是收盤價高於3,400.00美元的堅固阻力位。

美元新聞

川普宣布對日韓徵收關稅後美元上漲

美國總統唐納德·川普宣布將於8 月 1 日對日本和韓國等一系列國家徵收新關稅後，美元兌其他主要貨幣週一大幅上漲。
川普在社群媒體平台上發布致多國領導人的信函，表示將對日本和韓國徵收25%的關稅。他也致函馬來西亞、哈薩克、緬甸、南非和寮國領導人，這些國家的關稅水平均接近4月各自宣布的水平。
美元兌日圓升值最為明顯，最新上漲1.09%，至146.130。

週一美元兌瑞士法郎上漲0.38%，至0.798。
傑富瑞全球外匯主管布拉德貝克泰爾表示：“一些國家特有的因素已經讓部分貨幣處於弱勢。但顯然，今天早上美國傳出的川普和關稅消息，無疑對美元以外的其他貨幣造成了衝擊，這帶來了變化。”
歐元兌美元下跌 0.57%，至 1.172 美元，今年迄今已上漲逾 13%。
投資人擔心，儘管經過多輪談判，布魯塞爾可能無法在最後期限前與華盛頓達成協議，因為與歐盟的協議進展緩慢。
美國總統川普於週三宣布的「解放日」互惠關稅禁令將於 90 天結束後生效，屆時大多數美國貿易夥伴都將面臨更高關稅的前景。

川普還威脅對符合他所認為的金磚國家新興經濟體「反美」政策的國家徵收額外 10% 的關稅。
衡量美元對六種主要貨幣匯率的美元指數上漲 0.517%，至 97.467，達到一週高點。
該指數延續了上週的漲勢，當時反映勞動市場韌性的數據推遲了人們對聯準會即將放鬆貨幣政策的預期。
儘管如此，該指數仍接近三年半以來的最低點，今年迄今已下跌 10%，原因是投資者對美元的避險地位提出質疑，並重新評估了早先對美國在全球經濟放緩的情況下可能免受影響的預期。

Market Commentary

Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index

Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”

Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.

Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”