2026/8/11

黃金新聞

黃金和白銀上漲

週一下午美國交易時段，黃金和 白銀價格走高，市場消化了上週疲軟的勞動力市場數據，同時受到油價反彈、國債收益率上升以及美聯儲加息預期等因素的影響。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,358.71美元，上漲0.4%；近月白銀期貨結算價為每盎司65.106美元，當日上漲2.80%。

北美股市從歷史高點回落。標普500指數下跌4.53點，跌幅0.1%，收在7,753.11點；道瓊工業指數下跌60.95點，跌幅0.1%，收在53975.98點；那斯達克指數下跌85.26點，跌幅0.3%，收在26605.36點；羅素2000指數下跌17.10點，跌幅0.6%，收在3017.40點。歐洲股市漲跌互現，整體走弱。倫敦富時100指數下跌0.5%，跌幅55點，收在10,845點；法國CAC 40指數下跌0.1%；德國DAX指數上漲0.35%。
最新的市場走勢仍然受到上週五非農就業數據衝擊和週一油價上漲引發的通膨風險的影響。 7月非農業就業人數減少了2.3萬人，此前幾個月的數據也被向下修正，上周公布的數據將聯準會9月份升息的隱含機率從數據公佈前的54.7%下調至44.4%。但週一，隨著升息機率回升至51.7%，這種利好情緒有所消退，同時30年期美國公債殖利率上漲5個基點至5.244%，略低於7月31日收盤時的高點5.253%。接下來的考驗是美國東部時間上午8:30公佈的7月CPI數據，接著是週四美東時間上午8:30公佈的PPI數據和週五美東時間上午8:30公佈的零售銷售數據。

霍爾木茲海峽仍是影響通膨預期的主要地緣政治管道。伊朗的最新立場降低了人們對海峽快速重開的樂觀情緒，德黑蘭方面提出了包括與美國襲擊相關的賠償等要求。由於交易員重新評估了恢復海峽正常油輪通行的時間表，油價上漲。這項影響已波及各類資產：原油價格走高，美國公債殖利率走強，聯準會升息預期收復了周五的部分跌幅，而黃金價格在利率環境走強的情況下依然保持堅挺。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走強，交投於每桶79美元附近，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶85美元。美元指數走強。 （Kitco全球指數顯示了今日黃金價格波動中美元相對於黃金市場本身的影響程度。）基準10年期美國公債殖利率高於4.7%。

美元新聞

通膨數據將考驗創紀錄的美股

由科技股推動的強勁上漲行情已將美國股市推至歷史新高，下週將面臨新的通膨數據考驗，這些數據可能會為聯準會升息提供更多理由。
標準普爾500指數（.SPX）開啟新分頁本週，受科技股和半導體股的推動，該股創下兩個月來首個歷史收盤新高。此前，科技股和半導體股在兩次創紀錄高點之間曾出現回檔。截至週二的四個交易日內，基準指數上漲5.75%，創下自2025年4月以來最大的四日漲幅。
美伊緊張局勢的緩和也提振了股市，油價回落緩解了市場對通膨的部分擔憂，而備受關注的美國消費者物價指數（CPI）將於週三公佈。週五，疲軟的美國就業報告緩解了市場對聯準會近期升息的擔憂，股市因此上漲。
“市場對通膨感到焦慮，”宏利約翰漢考克投資公司聯席首席投資策略師馬修·米斯金表示，“下週的通膨數據能否讓市場鬆一口氣，我們將拭​​目以待。”

近期市場反彈已推動標普500指數年初至今漲幅超過13%。企業獲利報告連續第二季超出預期，提振了投資人對股市前景的樂觀情緒。
Raymond James Investment Management 的首席市場策略師 Matt Orton 表示：“我們看到了一些強勁的盈利，尤其是一些需要公佈良好業績的大公司。”
與此同時，奧頓表示，“7月份的拋售潮很大程度上是因為倉位過於擁擠，預期也過於樂觀。因此，你會看到這些因素在當月得到了緩解。”

7 月的 CPI 報告發布之際，正值聯準會召開會議，會上揭示了央行在如何應對通膨問題上的分歧。多年來，通膨率一直高於聯準會 2% 的年度目標。
路透社調查的經濟學家預計，消費者物價指數（CPI）將年增3.4%。剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格的核心CPI預計年漲幅為2.5%。
晨星財富首席多元資產策略師多米尼克·帕帕拉爾多表示：“過去幾個月CPI的下降可能足以阻止美聯儲今年加息。如果CPI在周三反彈走高並高於預期，那麼我預計股市會因此消息而拋售。”

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.