2024/10/21

黃金新聞

黃金上漲至盤中高位，白銀本週上漲 5%

據分析師稱，黃金繼續受益於地緣政治不確定性上升和聯準會新的寬鬆週期。然而，最新的上漲也表明，市場正在經歷由新的「害怕錯過」（FOMO）交易驅動的強勁勢頭，這可能會為價格走勢帶來額外的風險。
12 月黃金期貨最新交易價格為每盎司 2,732.20 美元，當日上漲近 1%。貴金屬預計將以 2% 的漲幅收盤。
Zaye Capital Markets 首席投資長 Naeem Aslam 指出，黃金市場日益增長的 FOMO 情緒可能是泡沫的跡象。
他在給 Kitco News 的評論中表示：“雖然多頭的勢頭依然存在，但這種大幅上漲感覺是情緒驅動的，美聯儲的任何鷹派轉變或獲利了結都可能引發回調。” 「如果沒有回調，它爬得越高，它就會變得越脆弱。謹慎樂觀是有必要的，因為超買狀況可能會迅速逆轉。

道明證券(TD Securities)高級商品策略師丹尼爾·加利(Daniel Ghali)也指出黃金市場的風險不斷增加，並指出目前的大部分動力似乎來自難以追踪的場外交易(OTC)市場。他補充說，評估這次反彈的可持續性也具有挑戰性。
「價格繼續走高，但我們無法在全球可見的場所發現任何大量資金流入，」他說。 「最近幾個交易日，黃金EFP 與基本反彈保持穩定，表明基於場外交易的反彈。選舉季節正在進行，這可能解釋了對黃金的一些興趣增加，但清算數據並不表明這是近期的一致趨勢。當然，在美國大選週期間出售黃金需要勇敢的靈魂，但接下來會發生什麼？
儘管分析師不能總是準確地指出市場的關鍵參與者，但他們一致認為，新勢頭背後的基本面支撐仍然強勁。
ActivTrades 高級分析師Ricardo Evangelista 在一份報告中表示：「地緣政治不穩定、關鍵地區經濟成長緩慢、央行政策向低利率方向轉變，以及最近圍繞美國總統大選的不確定性都是造成這一結果的原因。

獨立貴金屬分析師兼 BubbleBubble Report 創始人 Jesse Colombo 表示，他沒有看到市場出現泡沫，因為這次反彈是在一段時間的盤整之後出現的，即使是短暫的盤整。
「黃金才剛開始，散戶投資人還沒有完全介入，」他表示。 “當我們接近 3,000 美元時，我相信真正的 FOMO 仍然在前方。”
Colombo 補充道，如果金價收在 2,700 美元上方，那麼金價將有望達到每盎司 3,000 美元。
Asset Strategies International 總裁兼營運長 Rich Checkan 也表達了同樣的觀點，並對黃金的未來表示樂觀。
「處於歷史高位的黃金仍然非常便宜。這次反彈才剛剛開始，」他說。 “投資者應該停止等待並加入進來。”

美元新聞

美元漲勢暫停

美元在連續五天上漲後於週五下跌，稍作喘息，原因是中國推出新一輪刺激措施，提振了以中國股市為首的全球股市，風險偏好上升。
投資人對中國政府推出兩項融資計畫以協助提振股市表示歡迎。中國股市因此上漲，也提振了標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克指數等其他股市。
這也推高了人民幣，並提振了澳元和加元等大宗商品貨幣，但避險美元卻受到了損害。

然而，衡量美元兌六種主要貨幣價值的美元指數預計將第三週上漲，目前本週上漲 0.6%。本月迄今上漲約2.7%，為2023年2月以來最大月漲幅。
該指數最後下跌 0.3%，至 103.49 點，為 9 月底以來的最大單日跌幅。
「今天美元的回檔更多是由中國推動的。昨晚，中國推出了支持股市的措施，」多倫多Silver Gold Bull外匯和貴金屬風險管理總監Erik Bregar表示。
“這提振了中國股市和更廣泛的風險情緒，並對美元/人民幣構成壓力，進而幫助提振歐元/美元。這引發了美元回調。”

不過，布雷格表示，週五美元的價格走勢可能只是暫時的。
過去幾週對美元最大的支撐是在一系列整體穩健的美國經濟數據公佈後，聯準會政策預期轉向更溫和的寬鬆階段。聯準會在 9 月將基準利率大幅下調了 50 個基點 (bps)，促使當時的利率期貨市場消化了今年的另一次大幅波動。
荷蘭合作銀行駐倫敦外匯策略主管 Jane Foley 寫道：“有關美聯儲可能在 9 月份降息 50 個基點後再次採取類似規模舉措的猜測已被一系列顯示美國經濟強勁的數據所打消。”
“相反，有傳言稱，聯邦公開市場委員會可能只想在年底前再次降息。”
根據美國利率期貨定價，聯準會下個月降息25個基點的可能性為95%，暫停降息或將聯邦基金利率維持在4.75%-5%目標區間的可能性為5%倫敦證券交易所估計。他們此前曾預計在其中一次會議上可能會進一步降息 50 個基點。

Market Commentary

Gold price could hit $2,700 by mid-2025, silver will outperform gold

Gold has been one of the best-performing assets of 2024, climbing to new record highs on multiple occasions amid a backdrop of deteriorating economic conditions and non-stop debt printing, and according to one bank, the rally is expected to continue with the prospect of lower interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions.
“Gold reached an all-time high of USD 2,607/oz earlier this month, rising more than 25% year to date,” noted analysts at UBS. “It's not just the expectations of lower yields at play, with further support from macro and geopolitical uncertainties, and the continuing trend of USD diversification by central banks.”
They said that geopolitical tensions are likely to “extend well beyond the fourth quarter, with the next US government (and its policies) uncertain” while also highlighting that “significant unresolved conflicts centered in both Ukraine and Gaza possessing no obvious catalyst to end.”
“We expect gold to remain a favored market hedge for both geopolitical and rate risks,” they said. “Historically, the metal has outperformed equities during periods of elevated volatility, which again proved to be the case in recent months despite a less dovish market consensus on the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts ahead.”

The analysts said that, in their view, “This rally could go further,” giving a price target of $2,700/oz by mid-2025.
“Alongside the near-term risk drivers, we anticipate greater gold ETF demand to gather pace in the coming months,” they said. “According to the official gold ETF data published by the World Gold Council, physically-backed gold ETFs rose in August to mark the fourth consecutive month of inflows. Total holdings have rebounded to nearly 3,182 metric tons, the highest since the start of the year, narrowing the year-to-date loss to 44 metric tons.”
“We recommend that a diversified USD-denominated portfolio should include a 5% allocation to gold as a broad portfolio hedge,” the analysts said.
While gold has served its role as a store of value, silver has lagged the yellow metal, they noted.
“The well-followed gold-silver ratio signaling the pair’s relative value rose back above 85x after hitting lows of around 73x in late May,” they highlighted. “Weakness across base metals and wider commodities likely acted as a drag, while China solar exports and domestic installations also showed signs of weakness recently.”
“Despite this, we maintain our view that silver is set to benefit from a rising gold price environment, which is aligned with Fed policy easing,” they said. “Our expectation that the silver market will remain in deficit over the coming years implies continuous declines in above-ground inventories, which should help fundamentally underpin prices as well as act as a tailwind for investor interest.”
“We see silver outperforming gold over 12 months, with the potential for its ratio to test the long-term average of just below 70x,” the analysts said.

As far as the platinum group of metals, they noted that “Prospects of greater rate cuts by the Fed have given the platinum group metal (PGM) prices a bit of a lift as of late,” before noting that “PGM prices have been lacking a clear directional trade this year.”
“While market surplus considerations should remain a burden for palladium prices, platinum’s apparent market deficit suggest that prices are likely to move higher,” they said. “Production cost aspects also favor higher prices, especially platinum, with PGM production basket prices trading more than 20% into the cost curve for South African miners. Headwinds come from a softer vehicle market and weaker industrial application demand.”
“In summary, the PGMs lend themselves for volatility selling strategies,” they concluded.
In the near term, TradingView analyst Xanrox said that gold could climb above $2,800 as the yellow metal “has started its historical uptrend.”