2026/8/7

黃金新聞

投資者獲利了結黃金和白銀

週四美股尾盤，現貨黃金和白銀價格走弱，油價上漲、美國國債收益率走強以及美元走強促使投資者在周三突破性上漲後獲利了結。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,243.40美元，當日下跌0.07%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司61.520美元，下跌0.64%。
由於油價反彈，交易員重新進入非農業就業數據公佈前的防禦性部位，美國股市收低。標普500指數下跌13.59點，跌幅0.2%，收在7709.96點；道瓊工業指數下跌464.02點，跌幅0.9%，收在53885.10點；那斯達克指數下跌15.09點，跌幅0.1%，收在26348.35點；羅素2000指數下跌17.64點，跌幅0.6%，收在3001.55點。歐洲方面，史托克歐洲600指數收漲0.2%，報658.19點；德國DAX指數上漲0.15%；法國CAC 40指數上漲0.35%；英國富時100指數下跌0.19%，早盤強勢消退後，最終收盤漲跌互現。

最新的美國數據顯示，聯準會會議後市場對經濟韌性的預期仍高於衰退預期。截至8月1日當週，首次申請失業救濟人數增加1,000人至19.9萬人，仍低於市場預期；持續申請失業救濟人數增加至180萬人。第二季非農業生產力以年率計算成長1.4%，高於預期，先前第一季的增幅修正為0.8%。7月ISM服務業PMI為54.1，低於市場預期的54.5，但仍處於擴張區間。本週稍早公佈的ADP私部門就業數據顯示，7月僅新增4.4萬個就業崗位，低於6月的9.5萬個。綜合來看，這些數據讓交易員傾向認為勞動市場依然強勁，只是招募速度放緩，而非出現徹底的鴿派轉向。
同時，全球市場仍持續感受到聯準會7月貨幣政策會議的影響。 7月29日，聯準會以9比3的投票結果維持聯邦基金利率目標區間在3.50%至3.75%不變。聲明指出，經濟活動正穩定擴張，就業成長與勞動力成長保持同步，通膨率仍高於2%的目標水準。在新聞發布會和本周公布的數據之後，市場對利率的預期仍然對週五的非農就業數據十分敏感。週四下午，市場隱含的9月升息25個基點的機率接近56.9%，高於週三的54.4%，但低於上週的63.4%，而10年期美國國債殖利率回落至4.6%至4.7%區間。儘管市場信心和地緣政治對沖限制了金價的下行空間，但上述因素仍然給黃金市場帶來了實際收益率的壓力。

霍爾木茲海峽仍然是影響金屬、石油和利率的核心地緣政治風險因素。據稱伊朗和阿曼即將就航運路線達成最終協議，但如果任何協議最終賦予德黑蘭對商業航行的正式控制權，美國的立場仍然是限制因素。戰前，霍爾木茲海峽承擔了全球約五分之一的石油和天然氣運輸量，因此即使部分重新開放，也會對能源市場產生顯著的通縮效應；而談判破裂則維持了原油和美國國債的風險溢價。週四，市場呈現了第二種情境：布蘭特原油上漲3.8%至每桶82.49美元，WTI原油攀升至每桶約77.29美元，而油價上漲引發的通膨擔憂抑制了黃金的避險需求。
日本幹預日圓仍然是黃金市場的重要因素，因為它將黃金交易從簡單的利率市場模式轉變為信心模式。協調一致的日圓購買操作幫助美元/日圓匯率擺脫了四十年來的極端高位，但對黃金而言，更廣泛的解讀是各國政府在管理貨幣和債券市場壓力方面變得更加積極。 MarketGauge首席市場策略師米歇爾·施耐德(Michele Schneider)告訴Kitco News，黃金的上漲反映了投資者信心的日益下降，而日圓幹預則是這波上漲背後的「真正導火線」。她表示，即使利率走勢並非完全有利於黃金，其吸引力仍可能持續，因為黃金交易越來越與政策可信度和金融體系穩定性問題緊密相關。

美元新聞

日本4月的日圓購買幹預措施創下新的單日紀錄

日本當局在 4 月創紀錄地單日購買日圓，在外匯市場上拋售了價值 400 億美元的美元，以恢復大規模的日圓購買操作，從而阻止日圓貶值。
日本財務省週五公佈的季度數據顯示，日本在4月30日至5月6日期間進行了三天的外匯幹預，當時由於日本黃金周假期，市場流動性不足。

根據日本財務省自 1991 年以來的數據，4 月 30 日的最大單日支出額達到 6.28 兆日圓（396.4 億美元），超過了 2024 年 4 月 29 日創下的 5.92 兆日圓的單日支出紀錄。
最新數據顯示，先前揭露的4 月 28 日至 5 月 27 日期間進行的 11.7 兆日圓幹預措施的每日詳細細分情況。

這項幹預幫助日圓兌美元匯率從近兩年來的低點 160.725 升至 5 月 6 日的 155 左右，但未能扭轉日圓的整體下跌趨勢。
日圓再次走低，7 月跌至 40 年來的低點，低於 1 美元兌 163 日圓，促使東京上週再次進行幹預，這次是與華盛頓協調進行的。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.