2026/10/14

黃金新聞

金屬走弱

週二美股尾盤交易中，現貨 黃金價格走低，現貨 白銀價格大幅下跌。交易員在周三美國通膨報告發布前減少持倉，同時，短期公債殖利率和聯準會12月升息的風險依然強勁。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,160.80美元，當日下跌0.24%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司59.090美元，下跌1.82%。
北美股市小幅收跌，銀行獲利未能抵銷晶片股持續承壓的影響。標普500指數下跌1.79點，跌幅不到0.1%，收在7805.45點；道瓊工業指數下跌180.45點，跌幅0.3%，收在51670.10點；那斯達克指數下跌41.52點，跌幅0.2%，收在27204.38點；羅素2000指數下跌11.11點，跌幅0.4%，收在2783.37點。

歐洲股市在經歷劇烈震盪後，最終收盤多數走低，科技股疲軟抵消了油價下跌和長期債券殖利率走低帶來的支撐。斯托克歐洲600指數下跌0.10%，收在635.01點；法國CAC 40指數下跌0.07%，收在7827.63點；德國DAX指數下跌0.10%，收在25259.90點；英國富時100指數下跌0.06%，收在10650.33點；義大利富時MIB指數上漲0.04%，收在18057.18057.
市場對10月升息的預期依然較為溫和，但仍面臨12月升息收緊的風險。9月非農就業人數僅增加2.9萬人，失業率維持在4.2%，薪資較上月成長0.1%，而7月和8月的非農就業人數合計下調了6萬人。上週公佈的消費者信心指數顯示，消費者信心減弱，通膨預期上升。交易員預計10月升息的可能性約為19%，12月份升息的可能性約為88%。週二的利率訊號好壞參半：10年期美國公債殖利率回落至5.22%附近，30年期公債殖利率跌破5.58%，但2年期公債殖利率升至4.81%以上，市場預期年底升息在殖利率曲線上。
接下來的關鍵指標包括週三公佈的9月CPI、週四公佈的9月PPI、週五公佈的進出口價格以及本週晚些時候聯準會主席凱文沃什的演講。 CPI疲軟將透過緩解實際利率和美元壓力來支撐黃金價格；而CPI強勁則可能強化12月升息預期，並使金價維持在阻力位下方。

霍爾木茲海峽局勢和美伊關係仍構成供應風險，但周二的石油市場訊號喜憂參半，而非單邊上漲。布蘭特原油在連續三個交易日上漲後回落，交易員們正在權衡俄羅斯柴油出口增加的可能性；而WTI原油收高，柴油價格走強、沙特與胡塞武裝衝突升級以及霍爾木茲海峽附近油輪遇襲事件支撐了美國原油的需求。美國總統川普指責也門胡塞武裝試圖在美國中期選舉前推高油價，並警告華盛頓不會忘記對沙烏地阿拉伯的攻擊。同時，沙烏地阿拉伯軍隊襲擊了胡塞武裝控制的薩那附近的石油倉庫。布蘭特原油收在每桶105.69美元，下跌0.9%；WTI原油收在每桶94.14美元，上漲0.4%。
對黃金而言，市場仍然呈現雙向波動：航運風險和美伊戰爭支撐了防禦性需求，但任何新一輪由石油價格驅動的通膨衝擊都將推高收益率和美元，從而對貴金屬構成壓力。對白銀而言，晶片板塊疲軟、工業需求擔憂以及金銀比價走高等因素共同加劇了其下行風險。

美元新聞

華爾街和加密貨幣公司帶來審查

民主黨在國會兩院之一或兩院取得勝利，並不會阻止唐納德·特朗普總統的政府向華爾街銀行、預測市場和加密貨幣公司提供監管優惠，但會賦予民主黨強大的工具來調查這些行業及其監管機構。
民調顯示，民主黨有望贏得眾議院，並在參議院的競選中佔優勢。如果民主黨在參眾兩院中獲勝，它將獲得傳喚權、更大的調查人員隊伍，以及傳喚機構負責人和企業首席執行官作證的權力，這將給被調查者帶來麻煩和潛在的法律糾紛。

「本屆政府執政頭兩年發生的一切都應接受調查，」貝克·霍斯特勒律師事務所合夥人、眾議院金融服務委員會前首席法律顧問凱文·埃德加表示。
該政府的金融政策議程包括放鬆其認為過於繁瑣、阻礙經濟成長的規則和監管，同時促進其認為能夠提振經濟的創新，包括加密貨幣和預測市場。
根據路透社報道，民主黨人已準備對川普及其家人與加密貨幣和預測市場行業的關聯展開調查。他們認為此類交易有利益衝突。民主黨也一直推動加強對預測市場的監管，他們認為這些市場可能為不當行為開闢新的途徑，並允許政府內部人員洩露機密信息，從而損害國家安全。

預測市場方面表示，他們會嚴密防範不當行為。政府則表示，支持加密貨幣和預測市場創新將有助於留住美國的就業機會和資本。
9 月 30 日，眾議院監督委員會民主黨成員羅·卡納在接受路透社電話採訪時被問及此類潛在調查，他表示：“我絕對認為我們需要調查這些金融交易、這些加密貨幣交易，看看我們的國家安全是否受到了損害。”

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.