2026/9/16

黃金新聞

隨著聯準會升息似乎已成定局，黃金和白銀價格走低

週二下午美國交易時段，現貨 黃金和 白銀價格收低，原油價格高企、美元走強以及10年期美國國債收益率接近5%等因素，令周三美聯儲利率決議公佈前，無收益金屬價格承壓。紐約商品交易所（Comex）近月黃金結算價為每盎司4,291.60美元，下跌0.43%；近月白銀結算價為每盎司63.236美元，下跌0.4%。
受油價和殖利率下跌抑制風險偏好，北美股市收低。標普500指數下跌34.25點，跌幅0.4%，收在7585.73點；道瓊工業指數下跌328.09點，跌幅0.6%，收在52093.11點；那斯達克指數下跌204.84點，跌幅0.8%，收在25981.57點；羅素2000指數下跌21.95點，跌幅0.8%，收在2870.29點。歐洲股市也收跌，史托克歐洲600指數下跌0.28%，收在634.18點。倫敦富時100指數下跌0.37%至10658.13點，德國DAX指數下跌0.15%至25402.28點，法國CAC 40指數下跌0.34%至8090.28點，義大利富時MIB指數下跌0.14%至51555.19點。

最新的市場走勢仍主要受上週的CPI和PPI數據、油價衝擊以及週三聯準會決議的影響。期貨市場目前預計升息25個基點的機率約為90%，與一週前相比發生了顯著變化。隔夜，10年期美國公債殖利率一度觸及5.04%，最終收在5.00%附近。市場對升息的預期已被基本消化。市場風險在於聯準會的政策指引：如果聯準會主席凱文沃許暗示本週的升息標誌著更廣泛的緊縮週期的開始，黃金將面臨實際收益率的又一次下行壓力；如果他將升息解讀為對沖油價上漲引發的通膨風險，那麼由於最終利率風險降低，金價可能會趨於穩定。聯準會更新後的利率預測與升息聲明同樣重要。
由於利率通道依然佔據主導地位，貴金屬走勢趨於防禦。黃金收在六週低點，並維持在最新技術分析中凸顯的4,316美元至4,355美元阻力區間下方。白銀也未能重返63.76美元的短期阻力區域，目前在64.51美元下方交易，仍面臨風險。中東局勢風險仍構成支撐，但美元走強和5%的美國公債殖利率限制了金價的上漲空間。

霍爾木茲海峽仍然是影響石油、通膨預期和防禦性需求的主要地緣政治通道。沙烏地阿拉伯東西輸油管在遭到據稱由伊朗支持的武裝分子襲擊後仍然處於停運狀態，而沙特延布港的石油裝載作業也已暫停，週一通過霍爾木茲海峽的貨物運輸船數量從前一天的10艘降至4艘。布蘭特原油結算價為每桶108.75美元，路透社通報的市價顯示，西德州中質原油（WTI）盤一度突破每桶106美元。對於黃金而言，情況依然複雜：霍爾木茲海峽和輸油管的中斷支撐了防禦性需求，但原油價格突破每桶100美元將推高通膨預期，推高收益率，並增強聯準會升息的可能性。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走強，交易價格高於每桶106美元，布蘭特原油結算價接近每桶108.75美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率接近5.00%。美元指數走強。

美元新聞

聯準會升息預期也在考慮之中

週二，受原油價格高企的拖累，英鎊兌美元匯率跌至一個多月以來的最低水平，而本周英國央行和美聯儲將公佈利率決議。
英鎊下跌0.2%至1.347美元，徘徊在8月7日以來的最低水準附近。週二，美元兌大多數貨幣走強，因為市場預期聯準會本週晚些時候幾乎肯定會升息。

週二，受原油價格高企的拖累，英鎊兌美元匯率跌至一個多月以來的最低水平，而本周英國央行和美聯儲將公佈利率決議。
英鎊下跌0.2%至1.347美元，徘徊在8月7日以來的最低水準附近。週二，美元兌大多數貨幣走強，因為市場預期聯準會本週晚些時候幾乎肯定會升息。
本週，市場對聯準會升息的預期不斷升溫，支撐了美元走強。歐洲央行上周也提高了借貸成本。

根據倫敦證券交易所集團 (LSEG) 彙編的數據顯示，英國央行預計將在周四維持利率不變，但交易員們已充分預期央行將升息 25 個基點，並且年底前再次升息的可能性很高。
英國就業市場依然疲軟，薪資成長接近六年來的最低水平，職缺數量為 2021 年以來最少，招聘人數也在下降。
「勞動市場的疲軟一直是抑制市場對利率因持續的能源成本衝擊而上調預期的關鍵因素。但現在市場已經開始預期利率會大幅上漲，」阿伯丁經濟學家費利克斯·費瑟表示。
《每日電訊報》報道稱，英國央行本週將宣布停止出售受全球債務市場拋售影響的長期政府債券，這可能會為財政大臣約翰希利釋放一些現金。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.