2026/10/22

黃金新聞

隨著美國公債殖利率企穩，金價上漲

週三美股尾盤交易中，現貨 黃金價格走高，現貨 白銀價格也從早盤跌勢中反彈。儘管通膨擔憂持續存在，市場預期聯準會將進一步收緊貨幣政策，但美元走軟和原油價格下跌仍為貴金屬提供了一定的支撐。強勁的企業獲利提振了美國主要股指，而伊朗和霍爾木茲海峽的緊張局勢懸而未決，繼續令能源價格和貨幣政策前景複雜化。根據最新的尾盤交易數據，黃金價格接近每盎司4,141.01美元，上漲0.66%；白銀價格接近每盎司57.976美元，上漲0.34%。
最新的美國經濟報告持續顯示，對利率敏感的經濟領域仍然疲軟。9月房屋開工量經季節性調整後年化率為122.1萬套，季減5.2%，低於市場預期的約130.5萬套，也低於8月向上修正後的128.8萬套。建築許可量下降0.2%至140萬套，獨棟住宅開工量下降4.6%至85.9萬套。 9月份待售房屋數量下降7.3%，年減11.3%，加劇了人們對高抵押貸款利率和家庭信心減弱正在抑制住宅投資的擔憂。週三公佈的美國每周石油庫存報告也凸顯了能源市場持續緊張的局面，商業原油庫存減少310萬桶至4.125億桶，而市場預期為減少約30萬桶。汽油庫存減少了300萬桶，而餾分油庫存增加了170萬桶。

聯準會仍處於會前資訊封鎖狀態，即將公佈的經濟數據將成為影響近期利率預期的主要因素。週四上午8:30（美國東部時間）將公佈每週首次申請失業救濟人數，週五上午9:45（美國東部時間）將公佈10月份製造業和服務業採購經理人指數初值，上午10:00（美國東部時間）將公佈密西根大學消費者信心指數終值。交易員將格外關注勞動力市場狀況疲軟的跡像以及消費者通膨預期的變化，尤其是在聯準會下週決議公佈之前。疲軟的就業和商業活動數據可能會降低12月份收緊貨幣政策的預期，並透過降低國債殖利率和美元走軟來支撐黃金價格；而強勁的數據或通膨壓力的再次出現則會強化維持緊縮貨幣政策的理由。
儘管原油價格週三有所回落，但霍爾木茲海峽和美伊局勢仍然是市場不確定性的重要來源。交易員在權衡持續存在的軍事和航運風險與地區石油出口復甦跡象的同時，也關注市場動向。波斯灣船隻遇襲事件以及沙烏地阿拉伯基礎設施受到威脅，加劇了人們對能源運輸可靠性的擔憂，而華盛頓和德黑蘭之間的外交接觸尚未達成最終協議。波斯灣及其他替代航線的原油出口總量已恢復至約2,400萬桶/日，超過戰前水準。不過，目前約有40%的地區原油運輸繞過霍爾木茲海峽，而衝突前這一比例僅17%。直接通過該水道的航運仍然中斷，持續的安全威脅、不斷上漲的運輸成本以及美伊談判的不確定性，都阻礙了原油價格恢復到衝突前水準。 12月WTI原油期貨結算價為每桶97.15美元，下跌0.7%，布蘭特原油期貨收在每桶108.82美元附近。

對黃金而言，原油價格下跌緩解了部分短期通膨和利率壓力，而海灣地區安全情勢的持續不確定性則構成了潛在的避險需求來源。然而，整體股市的復甦以及市場對聯準會進一步收緊貨幣政策的預期，限制了黃金的避險吸引力。白銀則對工業需求和實際利率走向的擔憂更為敏感，近期價格走勢反映了周二上漲後的獲利回吐。地緣政治風險、經濟活動疲軟以及仍高企的通膨預期等相互矛盾的壓力，繼續令這兩種貴金屬的前景變得複雜。
受強勁的企業獲利以及科技和人工智慧相關股票買盤回升的提振，北美股市週三收高。道瓊工業指數上漲360.21點，漲幅0.69%，收在52,856.09點；標普500指數上漲44.60點，漲幅0.58%，收在7, 757.17點；納斯達克綜合指數上漲278.04點，漲幅1.05%，收於26,702.86點，領漲各大股指，科技股從上週的拋售壓力中反彈。羅素2000指數上漲7.60點，漲幅0.27%，收2,781.02點。加拿大S&P/TSX綜合指數也走強，上漲0.76%，收在36,382.77點，美國股市的復甦提振了整體股市情緒。優於預期的企業績效有助於抵消人們對融資成本高企、人工智慧投資估值過高以及持續的地緣政治不確定性的擔憂。

美元新聞

英鎊兌歐元匯率創17個月新高

週一，英鎊兌歐元匯率創下17個月以來的新高，法國街頭騷亂和能源價格高企令歐元承壓，而近期強勁的經濟數據和對英國財政前景的擔憂減少則支撐了英鎊。
歐元下跌，法國遭遇多年來最嚴重的動盪，加劇了人們對政治穩定的擔憂，法國OAT債券與避險的德國國債之間的利差擴大了幾個基點。同時，天然氣價格攀升至四年來的最高點。

英鎊兌歐元上漲0.25%，至84.11便士，此前一度觸及83.95便士，為2025年5月以來的最高水準。
對普遍走強的美元，該股下跌 0.05%，至 1.3327 美元。
上週公佈的數據顯示，英國8月經濟成長強於預期，市場對英國央行的利率路徑看法不一。
匯豐銀行的分析師表示，由於聯準會鷹派立場與他們所說的仍然脆弱的英國經濟和不情願的英格蘭銀行形成鮮明對比，英鎊兌美元匯率可能會走低。
他們補充說：“美國利率可能在更長時間內保持緊縮狀態，這將支撐美元，而美國的經濟活動和充分就業也提供了更穩固的基礎。相比之下，英國的增長勢頭則較為脆弱。”
英國央行行長安德魯貝利週五表示，迄今為止，能源價格飆升似乎對英國物價的更廣泛影響有限，但現在就這些第二輪影響的強度得出確切結論還為時過早。

德國商業銀行認為，英國經濟的韌性可能使英國央行有空間提高利率，而不會對經濟成長造成過多的壓力。
人們相信英國政府能夠在不放棄財政紀律的前提下實現經濟成長，這支撐了英鎊。
然而，近期其他地方的市場動盪表明，投資者應該警惕自滿情緒，因為對英國財政走向的疑慮可能會迅速削弱這種信心。
匯豐銀行表示，10 月 28 日的預算案將進一步增加英鎊的下行風險，投資者在評估財政措施、國債收益率和信譽之前，可能會避免持有英鎊的多頭頭寸。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.