2025/6/19

黃金新聞

由於聯準會維持利率不變，黃金當日持平

隨著聯準會繼續下調經濟成長預期、上調通膨預期並暗示今年可能兩次降息，黃金市場在每盎司 3,400 美元以下出現明顯波動。
聯準會一如預期維持利率不變，將目標區間維持在4.25%至4.50%之間。然而，市場主要關注的是央行最新的經濟預測。
聯準會仍然預計利率將在年底前降至 4%，但並不急於啟動降息——即使經濟成長預計將放緩。
「經濟前景的不確定性有所減弱，但仍然很高。委員會正密切關注其雙重使命面臨的風險，」央行在其貨幣政策聲明中表示。

儘管市場波動，但聯準會政策聲明​​發布後，金價保持相對穩定。現貨金最新報3,390.81美元/盎司，當日基本持平。
儘管聯準會仍預計在2025年降息，但更新後的點陣圖顯示，2026年和2027年的降息幅度將會減弱。預計聯邦基金利率將降至3.9%，與3月的預測持平。不過，目前預計明年年底利率將達3.6%，高於先前預測的3.4%。預計2027年年底利率將達3.4%，高於3月預測的3.1%。
聯準會修正後的預測也顯示經濟成長有所下調。目前預計今年GDP成長1.4%，低於3月預測的1.7%。預計2026年GDP成長1.6%，低於1.8%。預計2027年GDP成長將穩定在1.8%。

美國勞動市場預計也將進一步降溫。今年失業率預計將升至4.5%，高於3月預測的4.4%。預計失業率將持續高點至2026年，2027年將達到4.4%，也高於先前預測的4.3%。
在通貨膨脹方面，聯準會預期消費者物價將維持高點至2027年。今年核心通膨率預計將上漲3.1%，大幅高於3月預測的2.8%。預計2026年核心通膨率將從2.2%升至2.4%，2027年將升至2.1%，而先前的預測為2.0%。
總體通膨率預計也將上升。聯準會目前預計今年通膨率將從2.7%上升至3.0%。預計2026年通膨率將從2.2%升至2.4%，2027年將從2.0%升至2.1%。
Pepperstone 高級研究分析師 Michael Brown 將聯準會的政策決定描述為佔位符，反映出中性立場。

美元新聞

聯準會會議紀要公佈後，美元走高

週三，美元兌大多數主要貨幣走高，但兌日圓仍然走弱，因為聯準會維持利率不變，因為經濟不確定性和關稅繼續為前景蒙上陰影。
政策制定者仍預測今年利率將下調半個百分點，但已放慢未來降息步伐，擔心川普總統的關稅會引發通膨。
Monex USA 交易總監胡安·佩雷斯 (Juan Perez) 表示：“各種猜測仍然懸而未決。第二季度的數據將成為關鍵，讓我們真正認識到我們正面臨實際的經濟衰退壓力，這將迫使美聯儲認真反思他們的行動。”
“他們接收到了混合信號，因此他們也發出了混合信號。”

目前聯準會的決定已經塵埃落定，市場仍關注以色列和伊朗之間的戰鬥，促使投資人紛紛尋求避險資產。
過去六天來，以色列轟炸了宿敵伊朗，以阻止核子活動，並聲稱伊朗伊斯蘭共和國需要更換政府。
根據路透社報道，美國軍隊也在加強在該地區的存在，這引發了人們對美國幹預的猜測，投資者擔心這可能會擴大該地區具有關鍵能源資源、供應鏈和基礎設施的衝突。
伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊週三拒絕了川普提出的無條件投降的要求，美國總統表示他的耐心已經耗盡，但沒有透露下一步。

美元已恢復其避險貨幣地位，自上週四以來兌日圓和瑞士法郎均上漲約1%。週三，美元稍作喘息，兌日圓和瑞士法郎小幅下跌，兌歐元和英鎊的跌幅更為明顯。
由於對美國經濟的信心以及川普政府作為貿易和外交夥伴的可靠性已經減弱，美元兌一籃子其他六種主要貨幣今年迄今仍下跌約 8% 。
週四是六月節聯邦假日，美國市場休市。
美元兌日圓縮減跌幅，最新跌幅為 0.06%，至 145.18；兌瑞郎上漲 0.36%，至 0.8190 瑞郎。

Market Commentary

Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index

Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”

Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.

Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”