2024/7/23

黃金新聞

黃金期貨徘徊在 2,400 美元下方

週一黃金期貨小幅下跌，8 月合約收在每盎司 2,400 美元的重要關口下方。截至美國東部時間下午 5:15，8 月期貨定於 2,394.70 美元，較前收盤價下跌 4.40 美元。貴金屬開盤價為 2403.70 美元，盤中最高觸及 2414.14 美元，然後回落。
市場參與者正在處理拜登總統意外宣布退出總統競選的消息。最初的反應較為溫和，金價短暫觸及日高，隨後跌至 2385.20 美元，隨後小幅回升。

CPM 集團管理合夥人 Jeffrey Christian 指出：「我們今天看到黃金市場平靜，因為他們在等待民主黨候選人資格的變化對選舉、國家和整個世界到底意味著什麼。」 」。
StoneX分析師 Rhona O'Connell評論了潛在的長期影響，表示由於通膨壓力和地緣政治緊張局勢，川普當選總統可能對黃金更加有利。不過，她強調，現階段採取戰略立場還為時過早。
現在的注意力正在轉向定於本週稍後發布的重要經濟報告。週四將公佈美國第二季國內生產毛額數據，週五將公佈個人消費支出（PCE）報告。 PCE 報告尤其重要，因為它為聯準會官員在 7 月 31 日 FOMC 會議之前提供了最新的通膨數據。

根據 MarketWatch 的數據，市場普遍預測顯示，月通膨年化成長率為 2.5%，低於 5 月的 2.6%。這項數據可能強化聯準會在即將召開的會議上維持當前基準利率的預期，降息的可能性只有2.6%。
展望9月，降息的可能性仍然很高。 CME 的 FedWatch 工具顯示，降息 25 個基點的可能性為 91.2%，維持利率不變的可能性只有 5.8%，降息半個基點的可能性為 2.4%。
當交易者等待這些關鍵經濟指標時，預計金價將對貨幣政策預期和政治發展的變化保持敏感。貴金屬仍被視為避險資產，特別是在經濟不確定和政治轉型時期。

美元新聞

拜登結束總統競選後美元小漲

美元週一在交投淡靜中小幅走高，因投資者消化了美國總統喬·拜登結束連任競選的決定，這種情況可能會給貨幣市場帶來更多波動。
然而，美元兌日圓在連續兩天上漲後走弱。
市場參與者也關注下週重要的聯準會和日本央行貨幣政策會議。聯準會可能會在 9 月的下一次會議上發出訊號，準備開始寬鬆週期，而日本央行則相反，可能開始升息，從而為日圓帶來一些提振。

然而，投資者仍然關注美國總統競選。
週一早些時候，即拜登宣布結束連任競選活動的第二天，美元和國債殖利率小幅下跌，但此後這項計畫已被解除。共和黨候選人、前總統川普在博彩市場上遙遙領先。
凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)副首席市場經濟學家喬納斯·戈爾特曼(Jonas Goltermann)寫道：「總體而言，這些舉措仍然表明投資者在很大程度上將川普的第一個任期視為對潛在第二個任期的最佳指導。
“換句話說，美國國債殖利率上升，美元走強，以及股市總體上具有建設性的環境。”
拜登已支持副總統卡馬拉哈里斯接替他成為 11 月 5 日大選的民主黨候選人。

哈里斯很快就得到了黨內許多人的支持，但一些知名人士保持沉默，包括美國前總統巴拉克·歐巴馬。美國前眾議院議長南希·佩洛西周一下午正式支持哈里斯。
美元指數（衡量美元相對於一籃子外幣價值的指標）上漲 0.1%，至 104.32。
舊金山貨幣諮詢公司 Klarity FX 執行董事 Amo Sahota 表示，在所有貨幣對中，美元/墨西哥比索對拜登退出的反應最為明顯。美元兌比索最新下跌 0.6% 至 17.925 比索。
薩霍塔說：“儘管民意調查僅略有縮小，但幅度並不顯著，但比索喜歡拜登以外還有另一位候選人的消息。”
撇開美國大選不談，分析師指出，日圓兌美元匯率自2024年初以來下跌後可能正處於轉捩點，因為聯準會即將降息，且市場普遍預期日本央行將很快收緊貨幣政策。
美國央行負責利率制定的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)和日本央行將於7月30日至31日舉行為期兩天的政策會議。貨幣市場幾乎已經完全消化了聯準會 9 月降息的影響。
美元兌日圓下跌0.3%至157.10。 ，而歐元兌美元最後持平於1.0886美元。

Market Commentary

Expect to see some consolidation next week as gold price is unable to hold gains above $2,400

Gold and silver remain in robust uptrends, but investors should prepare to see prices consolidate next week as its recent momentum appears to have peaked, according to some analysts.
Both gold and silver saw renewed volatility on Friday as the precious metals could not hold their significant gains early in the day. At one point, gold prices were up more than 4% on the day, peaking at $2,448.80 an ounce. However, the yellow metal is now looking to end the week close to where it started. June gold futures last traded at $2,355.60 an ounce, up 0.4% from last Friday.
Meanwhile, silver has managed to maintain its outperformance against gold, even as it gives up similar gains Friday afternoon. Silver peaked Friday morning at $29.905 an ounce, an intra-day three-year high. However, as the dust settles, it looks to end the week holding support above $28 an ounce. May silver futures last traded at $28.105 an ounce, up 2% from last week.
Although gold could not hold its ground above $2,400 an ounce, analysts note that it remains relatively strong as it prepares to notch another record weekly close in its belt. The new record comes even as markets start to price out a potential rate cut in June after March inflation came in higher than expected.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, markets see only a 27% chance of a rate cut in June, down from a 50% price last week and 68% price a month ago. However, analysts note that although the Federal Reserve could delay the start of its easing cycle, it is unlikely they will be raising interest rates again, which means that real interest rates can still move lower, a positive environment for gold.

While gold remains well supported, some analysts have said the rally is becoming over-extended.
"I think the momentum is still strong, but at the same time, it is not right to be greedy, and given the stellar rally we have seen in the gold price, we think it is wise to book some profit," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
Philip Newman, Director and Founding Partner of Metals Focus, also said it might be a good idea for investors to take some of their profits off the table. He said the gold market is due for some consolidation after this unprecedented run in record territory.
"We don't expect to see a significant pullback, but we do think a short-term correction makes sense at these levels," he said.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that although the price momentum is extreme, he is looking through the recent volatility and is focused on the broader trends driving prices.
He noted that gold remains well supported in part due to rising inflation fears and growing uncertainty over the health of the global economy.
"Right now, the market is looking for something to break before it has actually broken, and it leaves the market exposed to a correction. Am I going to take chips off the table? I don't think so as I'm in it for the long run," he said. "I am still wondering what may happen if the economic data starts to weaken and inflation remains bid. That would justify gold's performance."
While everyone focuses on gold in U.S. dollar terms, it has made record gains against all major currencies. Hansen pointed out that gold is up 20% against the euro, 22% against the Australian dollar, and 26% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategies and forex at Tastylive.com, said that while he likes gold and silver, he will not be chasing the market at current levels. He added that he is looking to buy on dips.
"The Federal Reserve has been telling us that their next move is going to be a cut even though we see solid economic growth and stubborn inflation. This will drive real yields higher, and that is a positive environment for gold and silver," he said.