2026/9/23

黃金新聞

美元走強抑制金價上漲

週二美股尾盤交易中，現貨 黃金價格小幅走強，現貨 白銀價格大幅上漲。油價下跌緩解了霍爾木茲海峽石油危機帶來的短期通膨衝擊，而美國公債殖利率走低和美元走強則抑制了黃金的上漲空間。截至發稿時，現貨黃金價格報每盎司4,356.80美元附近，當日上漲0.32%；現貨白銀價格報每盎司66.970美元附近，上漲1.63%。
週一人工智慧領漲後，美國股市收盤漲跌互現。標普500指數下跌0.06點，跌幅不到0.1%，收在7,764.64點，較歷史高點低約0.4%。道瓊工業指數下跌185.14點，跌幅0.4%，收在51863.69點。那斯達克指數上漲122.18點，漲幅0.5%，收27244.28點，創下歷史新高；羅素2000指數上漲14.56點，漲幅0.5%，收2889.92點。

歐洲股市漲跌互現，整體略為走強。泛歐斯托克600指數上漲0.13%，收在642.78點。德國DAX指數收盤基本持平，上漲0.02%，收在25,578.85點；法國CAC 40指數上漲0.20%，收在8,154.91點。英國富時100指數下跌0.29%，收在10,708.33點；義大利富時MIB指數下跌0.53%，收在52,371.54點。
市場部位仍聚焦於聯準會9月的升息是一次性調整還是新一輪緊縮的開始。在早盤交易中，期貨價格顯示10月升息25個基點的機率接近53.1%，美元指數接近100.48，10年期美國公債殖利率維持在5.0%附近。接下來的考驗是周三美東時間上午9:45公佈的9月份美國製造業及服務業PMI初值，週四美東時間上午8:30公佈的每周初請失業金人數，週五美東時間上午8:30公佈的8月份耐用品訂單數據以及9月份終值消費者信心指數。強勁的經濟活動或價格構成因素走強將透過殖利率和美元繼續對黃金構成壓力，而疲軟的數據則將為金價突破4300美元中段提供更清晰的路徑。

霍爾木茲海峽的風險溢價有所緩解，但並未消失。伊朗表示，如果美國解除對伊朗港口的壓力和封鎖，伊朗可能在幾天內重新開放海灣航運。同時，沙烏地阿拉伯正著手恢復通過其東西輸油管和延布港的出口。布蘭特原油價格一度跌破每桶98美元，隨後穩定在每桶99.25美元附近，削弱了先前在衝突期間支撐金價的短期通膨動力。這一變化提振了股市和白銀價格，但市場認為即使油價下跌也無法消除聯準會的通膨問題，這在一定程度上抵消了黃金的避險需求。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走低，交易價格接近每桶90美元出頭，布蘭特原油結算價接近每桶99.25美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率接近5.0%。美元指數小幅走強。

美元新聞

日圓受擠壓，各國央行鷹派轉向勢頭強勁

週二，由於交易員押注日本政策制定者難以跟上全球央行鷹派政策的步伐，導致日本利率與主要其他國家利率差距較大，日圓受到美元走強的壓力。
由於日本正值假期，加上《日經新聞》報道日本週五檢查了美元兌日圓匯率，市場波動受到抑制。這種做法通常是投資人介入市場的先兆。

日圓週一走低後，週二早盤報157.33兌1美元，而更廣泛的金融市場則受到油價下跌的提振。
其他貨幣對大多保持穩定，歐元兌美元匯率為 1.1467，儘管加密貨幣在過去一天里大幅上漲，推動比特幣價格升至 87,000 美元以上，創下八個月來的新高。
除了在利率核查報告發布後出現反彈外，日圓自日本央行週五升息以來一直承壓，而此次升息又遭到兩名鴿派人士的反對。
這與聯準會形成鮮明對比，聯準會上周也提高了利率，而其他大多數全球央​​行則態度強硬，市場預期今年還會有更多升息。

「除非日本央行比聯準會更快地收緊貨幣政策，否則美日之間約 275 個基點的利率差應該會繼續支撐日元融資套利交易，」法國聯合私人銀行高級亞洲經濟學家卡洛斯·卡薩諾瓦在給客戶的報告中表示。
“我們預計美元兌日元匯率將在年底前升至160，然後在2027年年中溫和升值至156。”
市場預期日本央行在10月將基準短期利率上調至1.5%的可能性約為30%，聯準會將聯邦基金利率調高25個基點至4%至4.25%的可能性約為55%。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.