2024/5/2

黃金新聞

聯準會訊號暫停升息，金價上漲

聯準會維持利率不變並採取更為鴿派的語氣，承認降低通膨的進展已陷入停滯，週三金價飆升。這種通常被視為對沖通膨的貴金屬受益於央行近期不太可能進一步升息的信號。
聯準會主席鮑威爾在聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議後的新聞發布會上
表示，“我認為下一次政策利率變動不太可能是加息。我想說這不太可能。”這項聲明與聯準會先前的強硬言論形成鮮明對比，後者一直堅持需要繼續升息以抑制頑固的高通膨。

鮑威爾也承認，央行並未對通膨下行軌跡產生“更大的信心”，這是可能暫停升息的關鍵條件。
市場參與者將聯邦公開市場委員會的聲明和鮑威爾的言論視為鴿派立場，他們一直預期聯準會將採取更強硬的立場。結果，會議前一直小幅走高的金價在央行溝通後飆升。

截至美國東部時間下午 4:55，最活躍的 6 月黃金合約上漲 25.60 美元，漲幅為 1.12%，收於每盎司 2,328.80 美元。金價大幅上漲也受到美元疲軟的推動，美元兌一籃子主要貨幣下跌0.69%。
芝加哥 Blue Line Futures 首席市場策略師 Phillip Streible 在評論市場反應時表示：「我相信我們正處於滯脹環境中，聯準會最終將在未來某個時候降息。如果新的火焰回到2,400 美元，我們需要一個新的觸發點，然後我們再次開始談論歷史新高。
儘管聯準會保留瞭如果通膨未能緩和則未來升息的可能性，但央行承認進展停滯且不願承諾進一步緊縮，這對金價產生了重大提振。在經濟不確定性以及聯準會升息週期可能暫停甚至逆轉的前景下尋求避險的投資者紛紛湧向貴金屬。

財經新聞

日圓兌美元上漲

週三晚間，日圓兌美元匯率飆升，因市場參與者懷疑日本貨幣當局正在市場上支撐陷入困境的貨幣。
日圓兌美元匯率從約 157.55 升至 153.19。最後報154.83。
市場參與者表示，此舉是在美國股市收盤後、聯準會主席鮑威爾結束記者會後發生的。

FX Street 高級分析師喬·特雷維薩尼(Joe Trevisani) 表示：「這看起來像是乾預。我認為日本人不會說什麼或承認這一點。他們上次沒有這樣做，但看起來確實如此。
日圓兌美元匯率在觸及 160.245 美元兌 34 年來的低點後，週一也跳升至154。日本官員週一拒絕發表評論。
但日本央行的數據顯示，代表財務省行事的日本央行週一可能花費了約 5.5 兆日圓（合 350.6 億美元）來支撐日圓匯率。
由於美國利率攀升而日本利率保持在接近零的水平，日圓一直面臨壓力，迫使現金從日圓轉為美元以賺取所謂的「利差」。

與此同時，美元週三下跌，此前聯準會表示仍傾向於最終降低借貸成本，但重申希望在降息前獲得通膨將繼續下降的「更大信心」。
聯準會在聲明中表示：“近幾個月來，委員會 2% 的通膨目標缺乏進一步進展。”
該聲明基本上符合預期，而鮑威爾也在新聞發布會上表示，聯準會的下一步不太可能是升息，緩解了一些對聯準會可能轉向更強硬立場的擔憂。
3 月消費者物價通膨高於預期，使人們對 1 月和 2 月數據上漲屬於異常現象的希望破滅，導致交易員推遲了對聯準會何時可能降息的預期。

Market Commentary

Expect to see some consolidation next week as gold price is unable to hold gains above $2,400

Gold and silver remain in robust uptrends, but investors should prepare to see prices consolidate next week as its recent momentum appears to have peaked, according to some analysts.
Both gold and silver saw renewed volatility on Friday as the precious metals could not hold their significant gains early in the day. At one point, gold prices were up more than 4% on the day, peaking at $2,448.80 an ounce. However, the yellow metal is now looking to end the week close to where it started. June gold futures last traded at $2,355.60 an ounce, up 0.4% from last Friday.
Meanwhile, silver has managed to maintain its outperformance against gold, even as it gives up similar gains Friday afternoon. Silver peaked Friday morning at $29.905 an ounce, an intra-day three-year high. However, as the dust settles, it looks to end the week holding support above $28 an ounce. May silver futures last traded at $28.105 an ounce, up 2% from last week.
Although gold could not hold its ground above $2,400 an ounce, analysts note that it remains relatively strong as it prepares to notch another record weekly close in its belt. The new record comes even as markets start to price out a potential rate cut in June after March inflation came in higher than expected.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, markets see only a 27% chance of a rate cut in June, down from a 50% price last week and 68% price a month ago. However, analysts note that although the Federal Reserve could delay the start of its easing cycle, it is unlikely they will be raising interest rates again, which means that real interest rates can still move lower, a positive environment for gold.

While gold remains well supported, some analysts have said the rally is becoming over-extended.
"I think the momentum is still strong, but at the same time, it is not right to be greedy, and given the stellar rally we have seen in the gold price, we think it is wise to book some profit," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
Philip Newman, Director and Founding Partner of Metals Focus, also said it might be a good idea for investors to take some of their profits off the table. He said the gold market is due for some consolidation after this unprecedented run in record territory.
"We don't expect to see a significant pullback, but we do think a short-term correction makes sense at these levels," he said.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that although the price momentum is extreme, he is looking through the recent volatility and is focused on the broader trends driving prices.
He noted that gold remains well supported in part due to rising inflation fears and growing uncertainty over the health of the global economy.
"Right now, the market is looking for something to break before it has actually broken, and it leaves the market exposed to a correction. Am I going to take chips off the table? I don't think so as I'm in it for the long run," he said. "I am still wondering what may happen if the economic data starts to weaken and inflation remains bid. That would justify gold's performance."
While everyone focuses on gold in U.S. dollar terms, it has made record gains against all major currencies. Hansen pointed out that gold is up 20% against the euro, 22% against the Australian dollar, and 26% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategies and forex at Tastylive.com, said that while he likes gold and silver, he will not be chasing the market at current levels. He added that he is looking to buy on dips.
"The Federal Reserve has been telling us that their next move is going to be a cut even though we see solid economic growth and stubborn inflation. This will drive real yields higher, and that is a positive environment for gold and silver," he said.