2025/7/11

黃金新聞

風險偏好略有下降，黃金、白銀上漲

週四中午附近，金價小幅上漲，銀價穩步走高。今日交易者/投資者的風險偏好可能略有下降，這對避險金屬構成了溫和支撐。川普總統週三加強了貿易關稅的力度，包括在周三晚些時候宣布將從8月1日起對所有銅進口徵收50%的關稅。川普也表示，美國可能對巴西徵收50%的關稅。 8月黃金期貨最新上漲7.10美元，至3,328.00美元。 9月白銀期貨最新上漲0.67美元，至37.29美元。

美國股指午盤漲跌互現，川普週三就美國新貿易關稅發表更強硬的言論後，多頭更加緊張。今日關鍵的外部市場美元指數小漲。紐約商品交易所原油期貨價格穩定下跌，目前交易價格約為每桶66.75美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前為4.37%。

從技術面來看，8月黃金期貨多頭擁有整體近期技術優勢。多頭的下一個上行價格目標是收盤價高於3,400.00美元的堅固阻力位。

美元新聞

美元稍有緩和

週四，美元兌主要貨幣從兩週高點進一步下跌，因為唐納德·特朗普總統的最新關稅舉措未能撼動市場，但巴西除外，該國威脅徵收 50% 的關稅導致雷亞爾隔夜下跌 2.8%。
週三美國十年期公債拍賣強勁，導緻美國公債殖利率大幅下跌，美元因此承受額外壓力，緩解了人們對「拋售美國公債」論調的擔憂。今年早些時候，美國國債、美元和華爾街股票同步遭到拋售。
總體而言，投資者渴望獲得風險更高的資產，最具破壞性的關稅情景看起來越來越不可能，這幫助英偉達成為有史以來第一隻估值達到4 兆美元的股票，並將加密貨幣比特幣推高至略低於 112,000 美元的歷史最高水平。

聯準會上次會議紀要也支持了市場情緒，大多數政策制定者認為今年稍後降息將是合適的。
衡量美元兌六種主要貨幣的美元指數下跌 0.1% 至 97.286，延續了周三 0.2% 的跌幅，同一天美元指數曾升至 6 月 25 日以來的最高點 97.837，隨後失去動力。
除巴西外，川普發給貿易夥伴的最新一批信函中的關稅稅率與他4月2日最初「解放日」聲明中提出的稅率接近，本周其他信件也是如此。

如果各國提出令人信服的提議，川普也表示願意將 8 月 1 日的最後期限延長。
巴西原本只被徵收 10% 的基準稅，但川普不僅提到了貿易行為，還提到了巴西前總統雅伊爾·博索納羅的遭遇。
博索納羅在川普任職期間與他關係友好，他目前因策劃政變阻止現任總統路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦於 2023 年 1 月就職而接受審判。

Market Commentary

Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index

Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”

Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.

Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”