2026/2/6

黃金新聞

白銀大幅下跌，也帶動黃金走低

週四午盤前後，白銀價格大幅下跌，並帶動黃金價格走低，儘管黃金價格跌幅不大。今日黃金和白銀期貨市場多頭平倉現象突出，本週早些時候試圖逢低買入的短期期貨交易者，如今可能在本週晚些時候遭受損失。美元指數走強和原油價格大幅下跌，是貴金屬市場除其他利空因素外的利空因素。 4月黃金期貨最新下跌48美元，至每盎司4,803美元。 3月白銀期貨下跌8.29美元，至每盎司76.25美元。

本週稍早黃金和白銀價格強勁反彈後，再次出現波動。彭博社報道稱，現貨白銀隔夜暴跌17%，此前在亞洲早盤交易中曾短暫突破每盎司90美元。此前，白銀價格經歷了一波看似過快過猛的破紀錄上漲，目前已從1月29日創下的歷史高點回落超過三分之一。貴金屬價格的突然暴跌也拖累了基本金屬市場的情緒，銅價下跌超過1%，跌破每噸13,000美元。同時，現貨黃金在震盪交易中一度下跌3.5%。
美元指數隔夜觸及兩週高位，1月底觸及四年低點後強勁反彈。美元走強主要受美國經濟數據普遍樂觀以及川普總統宣布提名凱文沃什為下一任聯準會主席的提振。沃什過去在貨幣政策方面一直持鷹派立場。

伊朗確認將與美國舉行談判後，原油期貨價格今日三日來首次下跌，這緩解了針對這個歐佩克產油國的直接軍事打擊風險。布蘭特原油價格在經歷了前兩個交易日4.8%的漲幅後，回落至每桶68美元附近，而西德克薩斯中質原油價格則接近每桶64美元。彭博社報道稱，伊朗外長阿巴斯·阿拉格奇在社群媒體上發文確認，談判將於週五在阿曼舉行，明確了會談地點。報告指出：「美伊雙方在談判參數上的立場存在分歧，這意味著在地區緊張局勢加劇之際，雙方能否真正彌合重大分歧仍不明朗。該地區供應著全球約三分之一的原油。這重新推高了油價的風險溢價。此前，由於全球原油供應過剩的跡象，油價在2025年下半年出現暴跌，但今年下半年已經出現反彈。
從技術角度來看，上週4月黃金期貨的價格走勢在日線圖上形成了一個強勁的看跌「關鍵反轉」形態，這是市場頂部已經形成的一個圖表訊號。多頭的下一個上行目標是突破5,250美元的強勁阻力位。

美元新聞

美元反彈或因降息預期及對聯準會獨立性的質疑而受阻

路透社對貨幣策略師的調查顯示，美元近期的反彈將是短暫的，在保持穩定後，將於今年晚些時候恢復更廣泛的下跌。原因是市場仍抱持降息預期，同時對聯準會的獨立性感到擔憂。
自美國總統川普一年多前上任以來，美元已下跌近11%。他一再呼籲大幅降低利率，以及近期對美元走軟表現出的漠不關心，加速了美元近期的下跌。

週五，川普提名聯準會前理事凱文沃什擔任聯準會主席後，美元收復了部分失地，因為許多人認為，與其他候選人相比，沃什今年降息的幅度可能較小。
預計歐元兌美元匯率在2月底將基本維持在目前的1.18美元水平，三個月後將達到1.185美元。不過，路透社在1月30日至2月4日期間進行的一項調查顯示，外匯策略師對美元中期走弱的預期變化不大。
路透社調查顯示，歐元兌美元匯率未來六個月和一年的中位數預測分別為 1.20 美元和 1.21 美元，這是自 2021 年 9 月以來的最高水平，上一次達到這一水平還要追溯到 2025 年 10 月。

當被問及到 2 月底美元淨空頭交易將如何發展時，50 名受訪者中除兩人外，其餘所有人都表示，他們的倉位將保持淨空頭，這一觀點他們至少從去年 4 月起就一直堅持。
儘管通膨率已連續近五年高於 2%，這是自 20 世紀 90 年代初以來持續時間最長的一次，但利率期貨交易員仍預計今年將降息兩次。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”