2026/10/20

黃金新聞

黃金價格下跌

週一美股尾盤交易中，現貨 黃金價格走低，現貨 白銀價格小幅上漲。美元走強和美國公債殖利率上升令金價承壓，同時交易員也在權衡持續的通膨風險與聯準會本月稍後可能暫停升息的預期。科技股反彈削弱了部分黃金的防禦性需求，而霍爾木茲海峽局勢的持續不確定性也限制了貴金屬的拋售壓力。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,137.80美元，下跌26.30美元，跌幅0.63%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司56.930美元，上漲0.068美元，漲幅0.12%。

北美股市漲跌互現，科技股從上週的暴跌中反彈。標普500指數上漲31.29點，漲幅0.4%，收在7,690.73點；道瓊工業指數下跌36.38點，跌幅0.1%，收在51966.03點；那斯達克指數上漲290.85點，漲幅1.1%，收在26430.89點；羅素2000指數上漲6.93點，漲幅0.3%，收在2728.30點。科技股和半導體股領漲此輪反彈，投資人重新評估了與人工智慧基礎設施相關的融資成本和資本支出的擔憂。在加拿大，受金融和金屬礦業股拖累，S&P/TSX綜合指數下跌247.92點，跌幅0.7%，收在35928.63點。
週末法國和義大利的抗議活動再次引發人們對政府財政、借貸成本和政治穩定的擔憂，導致歐洲股市大幅收跌。斯托克歐洲600指數下跌0.80%，收在639.56點；法國CAC 40指數下跌1.11%，收在7868.05點；德國DAX指數下跌1.18%，收在25319.77點；英國富時100指數下跌1.08%，收在10764.69點；義大利富時MIB指數下跌1.55%，收在49086.27點。由於投資人要求對主權風險獲得額外補償，法國公債殖利率攀升，而歐元走軟則對美元提供了一定支撐。

市場部位仍聚焦於就業成長放緩與持續通膨之間的背離。 9月CPI季漲0.6%，較去年同期上漲3.7%；生產者物價指數（PPI）較上季上漲1.3%，較去年同期上漲6.3%。 9月零售銷售額成長0.8%，顯示儘管借貸成本高企，消費者依然維持韌性。期貨市場認為聯準會10月份升息的機率在15%左右，這意味著10月27日至28日的會議將維持利率不變，而12月份進一步收緊貨幣政策的機率仍接近90%。基準10年期美國公債殖利率升至約5.135%，部分逆轉了上週債券市場的漲勢，並加大了無息黃金的壓力。中國第三季經濟成長率從第二季的4.3%加速至4.5%，主要得益於出口成長，但國內消費和房地產投資依然疲軟。接下來美國經濟將面臨嚴峻考驗，包括週二公佈的房屋開工和成屋銷售數據、週四公佈的每周初請失業金人數以及週五公佈的採購經理人指數初值和10月消費者信心指數終值。疲軟的經濟活動和就業數據將透過降低殖利率來支撐金價，而強勁的需求和高企的通膨預期則會加劇12月經濟緊縮的風險。
儘管週一原油期貨價格從近期高點回落，但霍爾木茲海峽局勢和美伊關係仍然是能源市場不確定性的主要來源。美國總統川普決定豁免部分新近對俄羅斯能源出口實施的製裁和關稅，這提振了市場對燃料供應增加的預期，但中東地區的航運中斷繼續限制市場。伊朗軍隊被指控與霍爾木茲海峽附近商船遭受的再次襲擊有關，而也門與伊朗結盟的胡塞武裝則聲稱對沙烏地阿拉伯的能源和軍事設施發動了新的攻擊。胡塞武裝的最新聲明尚未得到獨立證實。經由霍爾木茲海峽的原油運輸量仍低於戰前水平，而美伊之間缺乏持久協議也持續支撐著地緣政治風險溢價。 12月布蘭特原油期貨結算價為每桶109.55美元，下跌0.3%；12月WTI原油期貨結算價為每桶98.54美元，下跌0.5%。交投清淡的11月WTI原油期貨合約上漲至每桶103.66美元。對於黃金而言，地緣政治的不確定性仍然支撐著防禦性需求，但高企的能源價格繼續威脅著更高的通膨預期、國債殖利率和美元走強。

美元新聞

英鎊兌歐元匯率創17個月新高

週一，英鎊兌歐元匯率創下17個月以來的新高，法國街頭騷亂和能源價格高企令歐元承壓，而近期強勁的經濟數據和對英國財政前景的擔憂減少則支撐了英鎊。
歐元下跌，法國遭遇多年來最嚴重的動盪，加劇了人們對政治穩定的擔憂，法國OAT債券與避險的德國國債之間的利差擴大了幾個基點。同時，天然氣價格攀升至四年來的最高點。

英鎊兌歐元上漲0.25%，至84.11便士，此前一度觸及83.95便士，為2025年5月以來的最高水準。
對普遍走強的美元，該股下跌 0.05%，至 1.3327 美元。
上週公佈的數據顯示，英國8月經濟成長強於預期，市場對英國央行的利率路徑看法不一。
匯豐銀行的分析師表示，由於聯準會鷹派立場與他們所說的仍然脆弱的英國經濟和不情願的英格蘭銀行形成鮮明對比，英鎊兌美元匯率可能會走低。
他們補充說：“美國利率可能在更長時間內保持緊縮狀態，這將支撐美元，而美國的經濟活動和充分就業也提供了更穩固的基礎。相比之下，英國的增長勢頭則較為脆弱。”
英國央行行長安德魯貝利週五表示，迄今為止，能源價格飆升似乎對英國物價的更廣泛影響有限，但現在就這些第二輪影響的強度得出確切結論還為時過早。

德國商業銀行認為，英國經濟的韌性可能使英國央行有空間提高利率，而不會對經濟成長造成過多的壓力。
人們相信英國政府能夠在不放棄財政紀律的前提下實現經濟成長，這支撐了英鎊。
然而，近期其他地方的市場動盪表明，投資者應該警惕自滿情緒，因為對英國財政走向的疑慮可能會迅速削弱這種信心。
匯豐銀行表示，10 月 28 日的預算案將進一步增加英鎊的下行風險，投資者在評估財政措施、國債收益率和信譽之前，可能會避免持有英鎊的多頭頭寸。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.