2026/8/17

黃金新聞

聯準會升息可能性降低，黃金和白銀上漲

週五下午美國交易時段，現貨 黃金和 白銀價格走高，美元走軟和聯準會升息預期降低抵消了與油市風險重燃相關的美國國債收益率走強的影響。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,373.50美元，上漲0.53%；現貨白銀交易價格為每盎司6,4,530美元，上漲0.32%。

北美股市本週稍早觸及歷史新高後，最終小幅收低。標普500指數下跌0.2%，收在7,785.76點；道瓊工業指數下跌0.2%，收在53732.41點；那斯達克指數下跌0.3%，收在26729.16點；羅素2000指數上漲0.5%，收在3068.42點。歐洲股市漲跌互現。法國CAC 40指數下跌0.16%，收在8636.80點；英國富時100指數下跌0.21%，收在10750.11點；德國DAX指數上漲0.51%；斯托克600指數下跌0.21%。
最新的市場情緒依然在美國經濟成長數據疲軟和油價上漲引發的通膨風險之間搖擺不定。7月零售銷售額下降0.6%，低於市場預期的0.1%增幅；密西根大學8月消費者信心指數初值從55.2降至51.0。零售銷售數據不如預期、週三公佈的CPI數據走低以及週四公佈的PPI數據持平，使得市場隱含的聯準會9月份升息機率從週四晚間的約34%降至接近29%。升息預期透過美元通道支撐了黃金價格，但由於原油價格上漲，交易員們將目光投向9月聯準會會議前即將公佈的8月就業和通膨數據，10年期美國國債殖利率仍收於4.7%附近。

霍爾木茲海峽仍然是影響石油、通膨預期和防禦性需求的主要地緣政治通道。美國和伊朗就重新開放該水道的談判仍處於僵局，又有兩艘船遭到攻擊，華盛頓方面已表示可以無限期地維持對伊朗的海上封鎖。由於僵局持續加劇能源供應風險，布蘭特原油價格徘徊在每桶88美元附近，WTI原油價格則在每桶82美元附近。對黃金而言，其影響依然是雙重的：疲軟的經濟數據和美元走軟支撐了無收益金屬，而受限制的海灣航運和原油價格上漲則維持了通膨風險溢價，並限制了收益率的下降。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走強，交易價格在每桶82.78美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶88.45美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.7%附近交易。美元指數走軟。

美元新聞

日圓小幅走強，交易員下調聯準會升息預期

日圓兌美元小幅走高，基本上忽略了弱於預期的日本 GDP 數據，因為交易員推遲了對聯準會今年升息的預期。
日圓兌美元上漲0.2%，至159.055日圓，可望連續第二天小幅上漲，但仍穩居過去一週的交易區間。此前，週一公佈的數據顯示，日本第二季GDP以年率計算成長了1.1%。
「具體情況喜憂參半，」凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的分析師在一份研究報告中寫道。 「第二季GDP成長良好，政府仍在限制能源價格上漲帶來的成本傳導，」他們寫道，而政府消費的激增「顯示高市的擴張性財政政策開始產生影響」。

歐元兌美元匯率持平於1.1573美元，英鎊兌美元匯率上漲0.1%至1.3546美元。澳幣兌美元匯率及紐元兌美元匯率分別持平於0.7085美元及0.5891美元。
疲軟的美國經濟數據，包括非農就業數據和消費者及生產者物價通膨指標，澆熄了投資者對聯準會今年升息的預期，預計在 8 月 27 日至 29 日舉行的傑克遜霍爾研討會之前，聯準會不會透露太多資訊。
紐約銀行分析師寫道：“近幾週美國經濟數據疲軟，降低了市場對加息的預期，目前市場普遍預期12月份加息幅度不足一次。美國國債收益率曲線末端依然高企，一些評論人士將收益率上升歸因於市場對信譽度的擔憂。”

根據芝加哥商品交易所集團的 FedWatch 工具顯示，聯邦基金期貨隱含的聯準會決策者在 9 月 16 日結束的下一次為期兩天的會議上維持利率不變的機率為 66.9%，高於一個月前的 47.6%。
衡量美元兌一籃子六種貨幣強弱的美元指數下跌0.1%，接近本月最低水平，報99.519。
油價在漲跌之間波動，而美伊解決中東衝突的談判仍處於停滯狀態。布蘭特原油價格小幅下跌0.1%，至每桶88.48美元。此前，美國總統川普敦促美國民眾做好應對戰爭導致油價持續高企的準備，而伊朗則呼籲美國「接受戰敗」。霍爾木茲海峽的航運交通仍十分稀少。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.