2025/3/26

黃金新聞

黃金、白銀因避險買盤穩定上漲

週二美國午盤交易時，黃金和白銀價格走高，白銀價格穩步上漲。由於美國貿易和外交政策混亂，整個市場依然動盪不安，但黃金和白銀的避險需求仍然穩定。圖表也對黃金和白銀有利，繼續吸引投機者進行技術性買入。四月黃金價格最新上漲 13.80 美元，至 3,029.40 美元。五月白銀價格最新上漲 0.775 美元，至 34.22 美元。

今日關鍵的外部市場表現為美元指數走弱。 Nymex 原油期貨價格也走弱，交易價格約為每桶 68.75 美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前約4.3%。

從技術角度來看，4月黃金期貨多頭具有強勁的整體近期技術優勢。多頭的下一個上行價格目標是收在 3,100.00 美元的堅固阻力位上方。

美元新聞

貿易商對關稅不確定，美元失去支撐

美元週三稍作喘息，因美國信心數據疲軟，以及對大規模關稅對美國經濟成長影響的擔憂，抑制了近期的反彈。
美元兌日圓隔夜下跌約 0.5%，跌破 150 日圓，在亞洲時段早盤報 149.95。歐元兌美元匯率一週內從五個月高點下跌，目前穩定在 1.0789 美元。

美國與俄羅斯和烏克蘭達成協議，暫停對海上和能源目標的攻擊。歐元和俄羅斯盧布並未立即做出反應，但由於美國表示將推動解除對俄羅斯農業的製裁，小麥價格下跌。
美國總統川普威脅下週將對汽車、晶片和藥品徵收新一輪關稅，或至少公佈徵收細節，這讓市場高度緊張。
在月度通膨數據公佈之前，對貿易敏感的澳元徘徊在 63 美分上方，該數據可能會持續一段時間，這也加強了人們對央行不會急於降息的預期。

澳元對週二的聯邦預算幾乎沒有反應，預算承諾減稅和額外借貸，為五月大選前的選民救濟措施提供資金。
澳洲聯邦銀行策略師喬·卡普索表示：“未來幾週乃至幾個月，澳元/美元的主要推動因素將是美國的新貿易政策以及外國政府的反應。”
“如果下週市場參與者對美國關稅高於預期以及其他政府的報復感到措手不及，澳元/美元可能會在未來幾週測試 0.60 美元。”

Market Commentary

2025 U.S. dollar index preview: More upside likely

The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies weighted against the greenback. The USDX is an important “outside market” that has a near-daily price influence on other markets, including the precious metals. The USDX is also a good barometer of the health of the U.S. economy, which is the largest in the world.
The USDX recently hit a two-year high and is trending higher on the charts. In fact, the monthly chart for the USDX shows prices have been in an uptrend since 2008. It’s important to note that trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. While the uptrend in the USDX is a mature one, at 16 years old, there are no strong, early technical clues to suggest the index will put in a major market top any time soon.

A Federal Reserve that has very likely become more tentative on further cutting U.S. interest rates in the coming new year will also work in favor of the USDX bulls.
The U.S. economy may have its problems in 2025, including the prospects of stubborn price inflation and/or headwinds from any new trade tariffs initiated by the incoming Trump presidential administration. However, it’s likely the U.S. currency will remain “the cleanest dirty shirt in the drawer” of other major currencies. The U.S. dollar also still holds the title of the safest currency in the world, so any new geopolitical unrest would also likely support the USDX.

Look for currency traders to continue to sell the majors (Euro, British pound, Canada dollar, Australian dollar, Japanese yen) against the U.S. dollar, as well as the periphery currencies, in the coming new year.
Importantly, in 2025 I also look for the gold and silver markets to become less sensitive (less bearish) to the U.S. dollar appreciating on the foreign exchange market. On a longer-term basis, this phenomenon has been apparent in recent years. Just look at a longer-term gold chart and a longer-term USDX chart—both are trending up.