2026/9/22

黃金新聞

黃金和白銀價格回落

週一美國股市收盤後，現貨黃金和白銀價格走軟，原因是股市強勁反彈、油價走弱以及美國國債收益率小幅回落抑制了避險需求，而美聯儲利率預期依然緊縮。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,337.20美元，下跌0.95%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司66.080美元，下跌0.44%。
北美股市普遍收高。標普500指數上漲1.5%，收在7,764.70點；那斯達克指數上漲2.3%，收27122.09點；道瓊工業指數上漲0.7%，收在52048.83點；羅素2000指數上漲0.5%，收在2875.36點。歐洲股市也普遍走強，史托克歐洲600指數上漲1.0%；德國DAX指數上漲1.1%；歐洲史托克50指數上漲1.3%；法國CAC 40指數上漲0.9%；倫敦富時100指數上漲0.8%。

最新的市場定位仍基於市場已接受聯準會上週25個基點的升息，但尚未排除進一步收緊的可能性。聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）於9月16日將目標利率區間上調至3.75%至4.00%，市場預期中位數仍指向年底前達4.1%。 8月零售銷售額成長1.2%，首次申請失業救濟人數降至19.6萬人，交易員預計12月份美國再次升息的機率為88%。在這種多重因素的共同作用下，黃金價格受到油價下跌帶來的通膨壓力和依然鷹派的利率路徑的雙重影響。 10年期美國公債殖利率回落至4.95%至4.96%，但仍接近具有重要心理意義的5%關口。
霍爾木茲海峽仍是市場的壓力閥，而非已消除的風險。由於投資者預期沙烏地阿拉伯石油運輸量將部分恢復，以及本週聯合國會議前後可能出現的外交進展，油價連續第四個交易日下跌。布蘭特原油結算價為每桶100.34美元，下跌3.4%；WTI原油結算價為每桶95.78美元，下跌4.5%。過去六天，沙烏地阿拉伯石油經霍爾木茲海峽的每日平均運輸量為290萬桶，高於8月份的約70萬桶。短期來看，這起事件對油價構成利空，對股市構成支撐，對黃金則略有負面影響，因為部分地緣政治風險溢價已從原油和避險金屬中轉移出去。

美國債券市場仍然是最大的結構性風險。接近5%的10年期公債殖利率會提高股票的折現率，增加抵押貸款和企業借貸成本，並使聯邦債務償還成為更明顯的宏觀限制因素。截至4月份，美國公共債務規模為31.3兆美元，大致相當於美國經濟規模，而2025財年的淨利息支出超過了國防開支。由於赤字仍然巨大，長期利率的每一次持續走高都會直接推高再融資成本，加劇人們對國債供應的擔憂，並給黃金和白銀等無收益資產帶來實際利率下行壓力。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走低，結算價約每桶95.78美元，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶100.34美元。美元指數走強。

美元新聞

日圓受擠壓，各國央行鷹派轉向勢頭強勁

週二，由於交易員押注日本政策制定者難以跟上全球央行鷹派政策的步伐，導致日本利率與主要其他國家利率差距較大，日圓受到美元走強的壓力。
由於日本正值假期，加上《日經新聞》報道日本週五檢查了美元兌日圓匯率，市場波動受到抑制。這種做法通常是投資人介入市場的先兆。

日圓週一走低後，週二早盤報157.33兌1美元，而更廣泛的金融市場則受到油價下跌的提振。
其他貨幣對大多保持穩定，歐元兌美元匯率為 1.1467，儘管加密貨幣在過去一天里大幅上漲，推動比特幣價格升至 87,000 美元以上，創下八個月來的新高。
除了在利率核查報告發布後出現反彈外，日圓自日本央行週五升息以來一直承壓，而此次升息又遭到兩名鴿派人士的反對。
這與聯準會形成鮮明對比，聯準會上周也提高了利率，而其他大多數全球央​​行則態度強硬，市場預期今年還會有更多升息。

「除非日本央行比聯準會更快地收緊貨幣政策，否則美日之間約 275 個基點的利率差應該會繼續支撐日元融資套利交易，」法國聯合私人銀行高級亞洲經濟學家卡洛斯·卡薩諾瓦在給客戶的報告中表示。
“我們預計美元兌日元匯率將在年底前升至160，然後在2027年年中溫和升值至156。”
市場預期日本央行在10月將基準短期利率上調至1.5%的可能性約為30%，聯準會將聯邦基金利率調高25個基點至4%至4.25%的可能性約為55%。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.