2026/8/26

黃金新聞

黃金交易走勢平穩

黃金繼續展現出強勁的基本面，今日創下三個月新高，並在12月期貨日線圖上連續第七個創出新高。儘管交投最活躍的合約最終收盤相對平穩，但其價格在4692美元的38.2%斐波那契回撤位上方波動——該關鍵價位此前尚未觸及——此前金價在整個交易日中一直在該價位上下震盪。

更重要的是，黃金已做好充分準備，將潛在的下跌幅度降至最低。目前位於4,635美元的200日移動均線近期才從阻力位轉為支撐位，如今已成為市場下方第二道堅實的技術支撐。在斐波那契回檔位和200日均線的雙重支撐下，即使動能減弱，整體結構依然穩健。
今天的交易時段創下自7月24日以來最小的日內交易區間，形成了一個教科書式的星形十字星。十字星——大致可譯為「不變」或「沒有變化」——形成於買賣雙方勢均力敵，開盤價和收盤價幾乎相同之時。星形十字星指的是實體完全位於前一根K線實體之上的K線。

單憑十字星型態本身，它表示的是猶豫不決而非反轉。然而，如果明日的K線收盤價與前一根長綠K線的走勢基本一致，且收盤價與前一根長綠K線的走勢基本一致，那麼這三根K線將構成三河黃昏星——這是日本K線分析中最可靠的頂部反轉形態之一。話雖如此，由於傑克遜霍爾經濟研討會將於本週晚些時候舉行，在市場參與者聽到聯準會的演講之前，黃金不太可能出現任何決定性的走勢。

美元新聞

全球債券市場就財政和通膨風險向各國政府發出警告

由於政府債務膨脹和地緣政治因素，週二美國對德國和日本的長期借貸成本達到數十年來的最高水平，這提高了企業和家庭的借貸成本，並使政策變得更加複雜。
由於美國總統川普的政策——從關稅到戰爭——顛覆了全球秩序，債券市場正進入一個通膨和利率前景更加不確定、上行風險更大的時代。
已開發國家的債務水準正逼近越來越難以持續的臨界點，美國債務總額已接近40兆美元。伊朗戰爭持續不斷，推高油價和通貨膨脹，並衝擊全球經濟成長。

此外，科技公司為建設人工智慧基礎設施而進行的大規模借貸，與對政府公債的需求形成競爭。
凱投宏觀首席市場經濟學家喬納斯·戈爾特曼表示，債券殖利率近期的飆升「表明投資者對財政揮霍失去了耐心」。
但他表示，這“完全在意料之中：幾個主要經濟體的財政前景堪憂，而政界人士似乎並沒有什麼意願來解決這個問題。”

週二早些時候，受油價重回90美元以上、加劇通膨擔憂以及美伊和平希望破滅的影響，全球規模最大、系統重要性最高的政府債券市場——美國30年期公債殖利率觸及2007年以來的最高水平。午後交易中，收益率有所回落。
高收益率可能會對家庭、企業、金融市場和聯邦預算造成壓力。
道明銀行分析師根納季‧戈德堡在一份研究報告中寫道：「我們認為長期債券市場已經遭受了『千刀萬剮』之苦。」他列舉了一系列利率上升的原因。他寫道：“投資者信心不足可能導致收益率在短期內持續承壓。”

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.