2026/4/7

黃金新聞

黃金小幅上漲，白銀小幅下跌

今日美股午盤交易中，黃金價格小幅上漲，白銀價格略為下跌，某程度上得益於投機者基於圖表走勢的買盤興趣，以及中東戰爭帶來的避險需求。然而，由於本週開盤美股指數走高，這兩種貴金屬的漲幅受到限制。 6月黃金期貨最新上漲9.50美元，報每盎司4,688.20美元。 5月白銀期貨下跌0.264美元，每盎司72.65美元。

週五公佈的樂觀美國就業報告也對黃金和白銀構成利空，因為該報告對美國貨幣政策鷹派有利，他們希望看到利率在更長時間內保持高位。

主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格接近穩定，交易價格約111.50美元。美元指數今日小幅走低。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前為4.327%。
從技術層面來看，4月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上行目標是突破5,000美元的強勁阻力位。

美元新聞

美元保持堅挺

週二，美元匯率略低於近期高點，交易員們正在倒數計時，等待美國設定的伊朗開放波斯灣航運的最後期限，否則將面臨對其基礎設施的攻擊。
中東戰亂和霍爾木茲海峽咽喉要道的關閉導致能源價格飆升，並促使投資者將美元視為最有效的避險資產，從而推高了美元匯率，尤其是在亞洲。

市場對達成某種協議或取得突破的希望抑制了復活節期間美元的進一步買盤，但市場情緒緊張，在美國總統唐納德·特朗普設定的美國東部時間晚上 8 點（格林尼治標準時間午夜）最後期限之前，美元的拋售者寥寥無幾。
日圓兌美元匯率報159.67，距離數十年來的低點和2024年可能引發幹預的水平不遠。歐元兌美元報1.1539，英鎊兌美元報1.3235，略高於3月下旬創下的數月低點。
Spectra Markets總裁布倫特唐納利表示：“市場做多美元以防局勢進一步升級，但股票、黃金和離岸人民幣交易良好，抑制了美元的上漲。”
“現在很難做出任何有把握的預測,我們等到晚上8點，看看伊朗和美國/以色列在此期間會發動什麼樣的襲擊。”

川普週一表示，伊朗可以在一夜之間被“消滅”，“而且那一夜可能就是明天晚上”。他誓言要摧毀伊朗的發電廠和橋樑，對這種行為可能構成戰爭罪或疏遠伊朗人民的擔憂不以為然。
德黑蘭拒絕停火，並表示必須永久結束戰爭。過去一天，以色列聲稱對一名伊朗情報部門負責人的死亡以及對伊朗南部一家石化廠的攻擊負責。
3 月下旬，隨著中東地區戰事升級和伊朗對中東能源基礎設施的攻擊加劇，澳元和紐西蘭元大幅下跌，但目前已分別小幅回升至 0.6917 美元和 0.5714 美元，儘管貿易狀況仍不明朗。
韓元匯率仍徘徊在1500下方，這一水準僅在2009年和90年代末期的危機之後出現。印尼盾週一跌至歷史新低，而人民幣在離岸交易中保持穩定。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”