2026/4/16

黃金新聞

黃金價格繼續在4800美元附近徘徊

人們越來越樂觀地認為，中東的混亂局面將最終達成長期和平協議，這給市場帶來了一些正常化，美元的避險吸引力有所下降，市場波動性降低也支撐了股市。
然而，全球金融市場情緒的改善並未提振黃金市場，金價難以守住每盎司4,800美元以上的漲幅。現貨黃金最新報每盎司4,794.30美元，當日下跌近1%。

Pepperstone 高級市場分析師 Michael Brown 在接受 Kitco News 採訪時表示，黃金價格要突破每盎司 4800 美元大關，才能進一步增強投資者的看漲信心。
布朗補充說，儘管市場都在期待可能達成的和平協議，但黃金投資者仍持謹慎態度。他認為，黃金市場仍需消化1月推動金價創下歷史新高的投機泡沫。

儘管美元繼續在98點附近交易，接近2月底以來的最低水平，但黃金價格仍然疲軟。
「我們持續看到黃金的交易更像是高貝塔風險資產，而非避險資產。此外，金價與美元價值或實際收益率等傳統驅動因素的相關性仍然很低甚至沒有相關性。考慮到這一點，而且這種動態短期內似乎不太可能改變，」他說。 “我認為黃金的前景取決於中東衝突能否像目前這樣繼續朝著緩和的方向發展。如果情況如此，我預計金價將繼續保持支撐，並在短期內繼續上漲。”
展望未來，布朗表示，隨著人們的焦點從當前的危機轉移到質疑危機造成的損失程度，黃金可能會重現光彩。
他還補充說，美國經濟更有能力應對當前的經濟風暴。
他表示：“美國不僅是能源淨出口國，而且在衝突爆發前，其消費者的健康狀況也相對良好。此外，華爾街的復甦應該會讓‘財富效應’持續下去，進一步提振高收入群體的消費支出。”

美元新聞

受和平協議預期和企業獲利成長提振，亞洲股市上漲

週四亞洲早盤交易中，股市走高，原因是市場對結束伊朗戰爭的協議日益樂觀，美國加大了對德黑蘭的壓力，同時交易員們也在等待一系列經濟數據和重要的盈利報告。
MSCI除日本以外的亞太地區股票指數（.MIAPJ0000PUS）開啟新分頁上漲0.3%，基準股指可望連續第三個交易日上漲，日本日經指數上漲1.5%。標普500迷你期貨小漲0.1%。

隔夜，標普500指數（.SPX）開啟新分頁上漲0.8%，那斯達克指數（.IXIC）開啟新分頁受美國銀行和摩根士丹利強勁的季度獲利提振，股指創下歷史新高，指數上漲1.6% 。在約6%的公司公佈季度財報的情況下，84%的公司業績超出分析師預期。
高盛分析師在一份研究報告中寫道：“我們總體上仍然看好新興市場股票，因為其潛在利潤增長可能強勁。”
該地區的收益將「由人工智慧相關需求驅動，而這些需求應該相對不受石油衝擊的直接影響」。
即將公佈的經濟數據包括澳洲就業人數和中國GDP。台積電（TSMC）（2330.TW）開啟新分頁作為人工智慧領域的支柱企業，該公司即將公佈季度收益，預計淨利潤將成長 50%，因為對其先進晶片的需求飆升。

石油市場方面，布蘭特原油開盤下跌0.4%，至每桶94.55美元。此前，一位來自德黑蘭的消息人士告訴路透社，伊朗可能考慮允許船隻在不受攻擊風險的情況下自由通過霍爾木茲海峽的阿曼一側，這是伊朗在與美國的談判中提出的提議的一部分。
黃金價格回升 0.8% 至每盎司 4,829.24 美元，而加密貨幣方面，比特幣價格持平於每盎司 74,832.83 美元，以太幣價格下跌 0.1% 至每盎司 2,360.71 美元。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”