2026/8/18

黃金新聞

油價飆漲推高殖利率，黃金、白銀上漲

週一下午美國交易時段，現貨 黃金和 白銀價格走高，美元走軟和美聯儲加息預期降低支撐了貴金屬價格，儘管原油價格上漲推高了美國國債收益率並給股市帶來壓力。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,414.30美元，上漲0.88%；現貨白銀交易價格為每盎司65.650美元，當日上漲1.66%。

受油價波動引發通膨擔憂的影響，北美股市收低。標普500指數下跌40.39點，跌幅0.52%，收在7745.37點；道瓊工業指數下跌272.39點，跌幅0.51%，收在53460.02點；納斯達克綜合指數下跌84.25點，跌幅0.32%，收於26491點。歐洲股市也普遍走弱，史托克歐洲600指數下跌0.22%，收在656.41點；倫敦富時100指數下跌0.28%，收在10720.30點；德國DAX指數下跌0.38%，收在26338.61點；法國CAC 40.66%，收於869.609.609.609.609.609.609.609.609.609.609.6
最新市場格局仍受疲軟的美國經濟數據和新一輪油價衝擊的影響。上週零售銷售數據不如預期、CPI降幅較小、PPI持平以及消費者信心疲軟，降低了市場對9月再次升息的預期。但今天上午公佈的紐約州整體商業狀況調查顯示，該指數升至20.6，創四年多來新高，而實際支付價格指數也攀升至58.6。隨著原油價格飆升，10年期美國公債殖利率逼近4.73%，令黃金走勢喜憂參半：美元走軟和聯準會升息可能性降低支撐金價，而殖利率上升則限制了金價漲幅。下一個影響美國利率趨勢的主要催化劑是聯準會將於美國東部時間週三下午2點公佈的7月會議紀要，以及週五公佈的PMI初值。

霍爾木茲海峽仍然是影響石油市場、通膨預期和防禦性需求的主要地緣政治通道。美伊和平談判仍處於停滯狀態，週末期間通過該海峽的油輪交通大幅放緩，伊朗尚未同意與華盛頓恢復談判。另據報導，德黑蘭方面表示已接近與阿曼就過境路線達成共識，但美國並未參與相關談判，並繼續堅持要求不受限制的通行權。由於僵局持續推高市場供應風險溢價，布蘭特原油價格突破每桶90美元，WTI原油價格接近每桶84.60美元。對黃金而言，影響仍然是雙重的：航運風險和美元走軟支撐了防禦性需求，而原油價格上漲則維持了通膨壓力，並阻止了美國國債殖利率的全面下降。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走強，交易價格在每桶84.58美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶90.87美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.7%附近徘徊。美元指數走軟。

美元新聞

日圓小幅走強，交易員下調聯準會升息預期

日圓兌美元小幅走高，基本上忽略了弱於預期的日本 GDP 數據，因為交易員推遲了對聯準會今年升息的預期。
日圓兌美元上漲0.2%，至159.055日圓，可望連續第二天小幅上漲，但仍穩居過去一週的交易區間。此前，週一公佈的數據顯示，日本第二季GDP以年率計算成長了1.1%。
「具體情況喜憂參半，」凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的分析師在一份研究報告中寫道。 「第二季GDP成長良好，政府仍在限制能源價格上漲帶來的成本傳導，」他們寫道，而政府消費的激增「顯示高市的擴張性財政政策開始產生影響」。

歐元兌美元匯率持平於1.1573美元，英鎊兌美元匯率上漲0.1%至1.3546美元。澳幣兌美元匯率及紐元兌美元匯率分別持平於0.7085美元及0.5891美元。
疲軟的美國經濟數據，包括非農就業數據和消費者及生產者物價通膨指標，澆熄了投資者對聯準會今年升息的預期，預計在 8 月 27 日至 29 日舉行的傑克遜霍爾研討會之前，聯準會不會透露太多資訊。
紐約銀行分析師寫道：“近幾週美國經濟數據疲軟，降低了市場對加息的預期，目前市場普遍預期12月份加息幅度不足一次。美國國債收益率曲線末端依然高企，一些評論人士將收益率上升歸因於市場對信譽度的擔憂。”

根據芝加哥商品交易所集團的 FedWatch 工具顯示，聯邦基金期貨隱含的聯準會決策者在 9 月 16 日結束的下一次為期兩天的會議上維持利率不變的機率為 66.9%，高於一個月前的 47.6%。
衡量美元兌一籃子六種貨幣強弱的美元指數下跌0.1%，接近本月最低水平，報99.519。
油價在漲跌之間波動，而美伊解決中東衝突的談判仍處於停滯狀態。布蘭特原油價格小幅下跌0.1%，至每桶88.48美元。此前，美國總統川普敦促美國民眾做好應對戰爭導致油價持續高企的準備，而伊朗則呼籲美國「接受戰敗」。霍爾木茲海峽的航運交通仍十分稀少。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.