2026/9/30

黃金新聞

黃金和白銀價格因此反彈

週二美股尾盤交易中，現貨 黃金價格走強，現貨 白銀價格也走高。疲軟的美國勞動力市場和消費者信心數據提振了金價，使其從週一的拋售潮中反彈，儘管長期國債殖利率仍接近數十年來的高點。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,172.40美元，當日上漲1.42%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司6,1,270美元，上漲1.23%。
北美股市小幅收跌，長期殖利率上升抵消了疲軟的經濟數據和油價下跌帶來的支撐。標普500指數下跌12.85點，跌幅0.2%，收在7670.84點；道瓊工業指數下跌131.59點，跌幅0.3%，收在51349.92點；那斯達克指數下跌22.84點，跌幅0.1%，收在26797.54點；羅素2000指數下跌9.99點，跌幅0.4%，收在2807.92點。

歐洲股市收盤漲跌互現，原油價格、債券殖利率和板塊輪動導致市場風險偏好不平衡。斯托克歐洲600指數上漲0.3%，收在640.28點。德國DAX指數上漲0.10%，收在25,399.21點；義大利富時MIB指數小漲0.09%。法國CAC 40指數下跌0.53%，收在8035.87點；英國富時100指數下跌0.45%，收在10,636.71點。
8月JOLTS職缺數量從7月的733.5萬降至707.9萬，低於預期的722.5萬左右；9月消費者信心指數從88.6降至81.9，創2014年以來新低。受疲軟的經濟數據以及紐約聯邦儲備銀行主席約翰威廉斯「無需緊急升息」的表態影響，市場對10月份升息的預期從週一的70.9%降至51.5%左右，同時2年期美國國債收益率也回落至4.89%左右。然而，這種利好只是部分緩解：10年期美國公債殖利率仍維持在5.25%附近，30年期公債殖利率也徘徊在5.59%附近，令對久期敏感的股票和無收益的黃金承壓。接下來的市場測試包括：美國東部時間上午8:30公佈的8月份個人收入和PCE通膨數據，週四美東時間上午10:00公佈的ISM製造業指數，以及週五美東時間上午8:30公佈的9月份就業報告。通膨或非農業數據走軟將鞏固黃金反彈；而數據走強則會重振週一金屬拋售潮背後的高收益率驅動因素。

霍爾木茲海峽和美伊局勢仍未解決，但隨著中東原油出口出現復甦跡象，短期油價溢價有所回落。調解人正在分發一份經過修訂的臨時方案，根據該方案，伊朗將允許海峽自由通行，而美國將解除對伊朗港口的封鎖，但談判順序、石油豁免、凍結資產和核查等問題仍存在分歧。布蘭特原油結算價下跌2.6%，至每桶102.59美元；WTI原油下跌3.5%，至每桶89.38美元。投資者權衡了區域原油流動復甦和沙烏地阿拉伯出口變通方案與談判失敗的風險。原油價格下跌削弱了支撐殖利率和美元的通膨動力，從而提振了黃金價格，但懸而未決的航運風險仍令金價保持防禦性。

美元新聞

聯準會計劃提高銀行監管門檻

四位知情人士透露，聯準會正在製定一項計劃，提高觸發對大型銀行更嚴格監管的資產門檻，這將使一些貸款機構能夠避免代價高昂的額外監管，並可能刺激銀行業整合。
知情人士透露，聯準會預計很快就會提議重新調整銀行資產負債表、流動性、資本和其他更嚴格規則的壓力測試門檻，以反映通膨和經濟成長的影響。其中三位知情人士表示，他們預計聯準會將在今年稍後提出這些調整。

現行規定對資產規模達到1000億美元、2500億美元和7000億美元的銀行施加更嚴格的要求。貸款機構表示，這些2019年設定的門檻未能跟上經濟發展的步伐，導致銀行面臨日益嚴格的監管，而這些監管措施實際上超過了銀行所構成的風險。
銀行表示，要突破 1000 億美元的門檻，通常需要對合規人員、風險管理系統、壓力測試能力和監管報告基礎設施進行大量投資，這些投資每年可能高達數千萬美元。
知情人士透露，聯準會正在考慮將最高門檻調整至接近 1 兆美元，並將較低門檻觸發的一些要求調整至接近 1,500 億美元。由於討論的是敏感的監管問題，這些知情人士拒絕透露姓名。

有望從中受益的銀行包括美國合眾銀行（USB.N）。開啟新分頁Capital One (COF.N)開啟新分頁PNC金融集團（PNC.N）開啟新分頁以及 Truist (TFC.N)開啟新分頁這些公司最接近 7,000 億美元的門檻，因此它們有更大的成長空間，而不會受到聯準會一些最嚴格的監管，包括新的資本規則和向監管機構提交每日報告的要求。
西部聯盟（WAL.N）開啟新分頁錫安(ZION.O)開啟新分頁同時，其他幾家公司也可能在無需滿足目前該類別貸款機構所受到的所有限制的情況下，實現超過1000億美元的規模。 Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP.N)開啟新分頁而其他一兩家資產規模在 1,000 億美元至 1,500 億美元之間的貸款機構甚至可能會放寬一些要求。
聯準會發言人拒絕置評。今年1月，聯準會負責監管的副主席米歇爾·鮑曼表示，聯準會將考慮重新調整指標，並建議使用名目GDP，但此後聯準會未對此發表評論。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.