2026/9/15

黃金新聞

黃金是「北極星」

黃金市場在新一周的交易中以一個月來的低點開局，價格跌破每盎司 4300 美元，隨著美聯儲本週加息，這種貴金屬面臨進一步的下行風險。但據一位基金經理人稱，專注於接下來 25 個基點變動的投資者忽略了更大的格局。
Sprott Inc.總裁Ryan McIntyre在接受Kitco News採訪時表示，在一個主權債務不斷增長、財政穩定性日益惡化的世界裡，黃金仍然是貨幣資產的「北極星」。

儘管黃金今年已經表現強勁，但麥金泰爾表示，這種貴金屬的持有量仍然嚴重不足，尤其是在美國機構投資者中。他補充說，在當前地緣政治和財政不確定性加劇的時期，黃金的表現最終可能會迫使投資者重新考慮其作為投資組合多元化工具的角色。
麥金泰爾表示，推動更廣泛投資需求的最終催化劑可能是對金融風險的重新評估，而債券殖利率上升或股市疲軟都可能引發這種重新評估。他指出，儘管長期殖利率走高，但投資人迄今仍出乎意料地不願重新評估投資組合的估值。
麥金泰爾看好經濟前景的核心在於對美國財政可持續性的日益擔憂。他表示，投資者應該密切關注經濟成長與政府不斷上升的利息支出之間的關係。
「我的觀點是，一旦美國的利息支出超過名目成長率，就會出現問題，因為你根本無法償還利息。經濟成長無法抵銷利息支出，」他說。

麥金泰爾表示，在名目經濟成長率約4%的情況下，政府正常利息成本正危險地逼近這一臨界點。同時，他也指出，債券市場已經顯露出政策制定者對長期利率的控制力減弱的跡象。
麥金泰爾表示，除非政府從根本上調整赤字支出，否則財政前景將持續不穩定。但他補充說，大幅收緊財政也可能削弱經濟成長，造成日益棘手的政策困境。
在此背景下，麥金泰爾表示，隨著財政風險的上升，利率上升會增加黃金機會成本的傳統論點變得不那麼重要了。
「隨著財政不確定性的加劇，名目利率的論點將會逐漸站不住腳，」他說。 “因為美國幅員遼闊，人們應對這種不確定性的自然途徑只有一個，那就是黃金。我們知道黃金是釋放壓力的閥門。我們很清楚這一點。沒有其他替代品。”
麥金泰爾預計，這些壓力最終將推動投資需求達到新高。

美元新聞

美元企穩，日圓接近7個月高位

週一，美元走勢平穩，日圓維持了近期的大幅漲幅，並徘徊在七個月高位附近，投資者正在思考聯準會和日本央行在貨幣政策的關鍵一周內可能升息。
全球政策制定者正努力應對美以對伊朗長達六個月的戰爭帶來的不穩定的價格壓力，這場戰爭已將油價推高至每桶 100 美元以上，並在長期債券拋售潮中顛覆了利率走勢。

歐洲央行上週升息並警告可能進一步升息，為聯準會週三的政策決定以及市場普遍預期的日本央行週五升息奠定了基礎。英國央行預計將在周四維持利率不變，但投票結果可能非常接近。
週五公佈的數據顯示，美國8月消費者物價加速上漲，交易員們因此加大了對聯準會升息的押注；芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具顯示，他們認為本週升息的可能性為86%，並且今年晚些時候還會進一步加息。
AMP首席經濟學家兼投資策略主管肖恩·奧利弗表示：“美聯儲可能會決定等待，但這很複雜，因為其10月份的會議恰逢美國中期選舉之前，等到12月份再採取行動時間太長了。”

歐元兌美元匯率最近報1.159美元，英鎊兌美元匯率最新報1.3524美元。衡量美元兌其他六種貨幣匯率的美元指數在連續兩週小幅下跌後，穩定在99.15。
美國公債殖利率仍接近多年高點，其中2年期公債殖利率（通常與聯準會利率預期同步變動）在上週上漲26個基點後，小幅回落至4.6148%。
儘管殖利率上升和利率預期變化，但由於主要經濟體的央行預計也將升息，且市場對聯準會政策可信度的擔憂依然存在，但迄今為止，這些因素均未能推動美元走強。
「我們認為美元會歡迎升息，因為這將支持聯準會的貨幣政策信譽，並進一步削弱貨幣貶值交易的勢頭，」荷蘭國際集團分析師在一份報告中表示。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.