2026/8/25

黃金新聞

黃金上漲，白銀下跌

週一下午美國交易時段，現貨 黃金 價格上漲，現貨 白銀價格小幅下跌。儘管白銀在上週突破後出現獲利回吐，但受財政風險提振，黃金價格仍走高。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,648.40美元，上漲1.00%；現貨白銀交易價格為每盎司68.750美元，下跌0.16%。

北美股市收盤漲跌互現，人工智慧相關技術再次拖累大盤。標普500指數下跌21.51點，跌幅0.3%，收在7652.86點；道瓊工業指數上漲140.15點，漲幅0.3%，收在53417.16點；那斯達克指數下跌200.26點，跌幅0.8%，收在25980.19點；羅素2000指數下跌22.79點，跌幅0.8%，收在2995.08點。歐洲股市整體收盤基本持平，斯托克歐洲600指數收在654.21點，盤中未發生變動。倫敦富時100指數上漲0.35%至10854.32點，德國DAX指數下跌0.11%至26106.60點，法國CAC 40指數下跌0.37%至8453.01點，義大利富時MIB指數下跌0.24%至52542.18點。
最新的市場走勢依然圍繞著本月支撐黃金的同一交叉因素：近期美國通膨和支出數據的疲軟降低了聯準會9月升息的緊迫性，但長期收益率和財政壓力仍然是限制因素。隨著油價下跌，10年期美國公債殖利率回落至約4.70%，而30年期公債殖利率則維持在5.2%附近。市場目前關注的是周三英偉達的財報、7月份的個人消費支出（PCE）通膨報告以及美聯儲主席凱文·沃什週五在傑克遜霍爾的講話，以期獲得有關經濟增長、通脹和政策風險的最新信息。黃金價格之所以能守住4,600美元上方，是因為市場對美國國債回購的預期、債務擔憂以及對美元的敏感性仍然比單一利率因素更為重要。白銀的回檔表明，其交易走勢並非表面看起來那麼統一：白銀價格仍然與美元和長期債券密切相關，但在周五突破70美元後，獲利回吐開始出現。

霍爾木茲海峽仍然是影響石油價格、通膨預期和防禦性需求的主要地緣政治通道，但週一的市場衝擊主要來自原油價格的下跌。華盛頓宣布了針對伊朗的新制裁措施，而美伊談判仍未取得進展，油輪何時能夠自由出入波斯灣仍存在不確定性。布蘭特原油跌至每桶90.54美元左右，WTI原油在每桶84.00美元附近交易，此前這些措施並未引發更廣泛的二級制裁衝擊。對於黃金而言，當前情勢依然有利但又充滿矛盾：原油價格下跌有助於降低收益率，而美伊僵局的懸而未決則為防禦性需求提供了地緣政治支撐。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走低，每桶84美元附近交易，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶90.54美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.7%附近交易。美元指數走強。

美元新聞

全球債券市場就財政和通膨風險向各國政府發出警告

由於政府債務膨脹和地緣政治因素，週二美國對德國和日本的長期借貸成本達到數十年來的最高水平，這提高了企業和家庭的借貸成本，並使政策變得更加複雜。
由於美國總統川普的政策——從關稅到戰爭——顛覆了全球秩序，債券市場正進入一個通膨和利率前景更加不確定、上行風險更大的時代。
已開發國家的債務水準正逼近越來越難以持續的臨界點，美國債務總額已接近40兆美元。伊朗戰爭持續不斷，推高油價和通貨膨脹，並衝擊全球經濟成長。

此外，科技公司為建設人工智慧基礎設施而進行的大規模借貸，與對政府公債的需求形成競爭。
凱投宏觀首席市場經濟學家喬納斯·戈爾特曼表示，債券殖利率近期的飆升「表明投資者對財政揮霍失去了耐心」。
但他表示，這“完全在意料之中：幾個主要經濟體的財政前景堪憂，而政界人士似乎並沒有什麼意願來解決這個問題。”

週二早些時候，受油價重回90美元以上、加劇通膨擔憂以及美伊和平希望破滅的影響，全球規模最大、系統重要性最高的政府債券市場——美國30年期公債殖利率觸及2007年以來的最高水平。午後交易中，收益率有所回落。
高收益率可能會對家庭、企業、金融市場和聯邦預算造成壓力。
道明銀行分析師根納季‧戈德堡在一份研究報告中寫道：「我們認為長期債券市場已經遭受了『千刀萬剮』之苦。」他列舉了一系列利率上升的原因。他寫道：“投資者信心不足可能導致收益率在短期內持續承壓。”

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.