2026/8/13

黃金新聞

到年底黃金均價將接近每盎司4,500美元

根據倫敦金銀市場協會 (LBMA) 發布的一項新調查，到 2026 年底，現貨黃金價格將在每盎司 4,500 美元上下波動。
倫敦金銀市場協會 (LBMA) 在 7 月對 16 位專業分析師進行了調查，儘管當月黃金價格處於 2026 年的低點，經常跌破每盎司 4000 美元，但專家們對年底價格的平均預測仍然高出 12% 以上。

調查受訪者對年底金價的最高預測為每盎司 5,100 美元，比當前價格上漲 15%；而最低預測為每盎司 3,879 美元，比 7 月初設定的 2026 年低點低 100 美元。
他們指出：「2026年前7個月的平均價格為4595.75美元，比倫敦金銀市場協會（LBMA）1月份調查的28位專業分析師預測的全年平均價格低約135美元。年中脈搏調查更新了這些數據，並顯示前7個月的實際情況與預期相符。」
倫敦金銀市場協會表示，預計全年平均黃金價格為每盎司 4,604 美元，預計 2026 年下半年價格高點將在每盎司 4,872 美元至 5,800 美元之間，受訪者預測的最低價格為每盎司 3,450 美元。
他們寫道：「分析師認為影響金價的因素——尤其是中東地緣政治問題、美國通膨、聯準會的政策走向以及央行購金行為——自年初以來並未發生實質變化，儘管隨著凱文沃許領導下的聯準會受到更多關注，分析的重點有所轉移。

1 月 20 日，也就是伊朗衝突爆發、油價飆升和貴金屬價格同步下跌的前一個月，倫敦金銀市場協會 (LBMA) 發布了年度貴金屬分析師調查報告，預測2026 年黃金價格平均為每盎司 4741.97 美元。
倫敦金銀市場協會（LBMA）在其報告中指出：「分析師預計，受美國實際利率走低、美聯儲持續寬鬆政策以及各國央行堅定不移地減少對美元的依賴等因素推動，金價將比去年平均水平上漲38%。地緣政治緊張局勢持續鞏固黃金作為全球首要避險資產的地位。」
然而，撇開整體預測不談，個人預期顯示出截然不同的預測結果。報告稱，今年的預測區間為每盎司3,700美元，最悲觀的目標價為每盎司3,450美元，最樂觀的目標價為每盎司7,150美元。
報告也指出，黃金價格的預測範圍比去年同期上漲了 103%，比去年年初分析師的預期高出 200% 以上。
工銀標準銀行大宗商品策略師朱莉婭·杜(Julia Du)對黃金最為看好，她預測金價今年將達到每盎司7150美元，年均目標價為每盎司6050美元。她預計金價將在每盎司4100美元附近獲得支撐。

美元新聞

美元走弱，市場等待美國通膨數據以尋找聯準會的指引

週三亞洲交易時段開盤，美元橫盤整理，並未受到中東重要水道航運再次遭受襲擊的影響，外匯市場正等待當天晚些時候公佈的全球通膨數據。
日圓兌美元匯率持平於 159.275 日圓，儘管美國和日本當局最近聯合幹預以提振日圓，但日圓仍徘徊在本月最低水準附近；歐元兌美元匯率保持穩定，為 1.1542 美元。

英鎊兌美元匯率也維持不變，報1.3508美元。澳幣兌紐西蘭元匯率和紐元匯率分別持平於0.7064美元和0.5879美元。
交易員們也關注紐西蘭總理克里斯托弗·盧克森週三在惠靈頓與國家黨議員舉行的會議 ，此時距離大選僅剩幾個月，外界對他能否繼續擔任總理的猜測也越來越多。
本週市場的主要關注點是將於週三晚些時候公佈的美國通膨數據，以尋找聯準會利率走向的線索。上週低於預期的就業報告以及聯準會主席凱文沃什上個月的新聞發布會，都未能消除人們的疑慮。

荷蘭國際集團(ING)分析師寫道：“假設油價保持穩定且霍爾木茲海峽重新開放，那麼隨著2026年剩餘時間的推進，通膨有望放緩。事實上，市場已經預期通膨將溫和著陸。”
週三亞洲油價恢復交易後，油價小漲，布蘭特原油上漲0.6%，至每桶89.40美元。此前，伊朗支持的胡塞武裝襲擊了曼德海峽的一艘貨船，而美國軍方則襲擊了巴基斯坦附近試圖突破其對霍爾木茲海峽封鎖的一艘貨櫃船。
芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行行長奧斯坦·古爾斯比周二表示，央行更擔心的是過高的通膨，而不是勞動力市場的疲軟，儘管目前尚不清楚他的這一立場是否與上個月支持升息的少數政策制定者的立場一致。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.