2026/6/24

黃金新聞

黃金測試4,100美元大關，白銀跌破62美元

週二收盤後，現貨黃金和白銀價格大幅下跌，原因是美元維持在年內高點附近，聯準會升息後的風險依然存在，以及霍爾木茲海峽風險溢價持續回落。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,123美元，下跌1.64%；現貨白銀交易價格為每盎司61,545美元，當日下跌5.45%。

聯準會會議後的最新市場動向仍然是貴金屬面臨的主要下行風險。交易員不再將聯準會視為短期內提供寬鬆政策保護的來源；市場轉而關注美國經濟數據堅挺、美元走強以及實際利率依然緊縮的局面。
霍爾木茲海峽南北航道的船舶交通量正在增加，但主要中部航道仍佈滿地雷。伊朗已同意60天內不收取通行費，德黑蘭和華盛頓仍在就控制權和未來收費問題爭論不休。目前市場受到的影響是邊際通貨緊縮：原油價格下跌，能源通膨壓力緩解，黃金的避險需求減弱。對於白銀而言，同樣的變化造成的損害更大，因為油價下跌和工業風險定價走軟正在衝擊白銀的周期性價格，而美元走勢則給其投資價格帶來壓力。

美國股市在早盤避險情緒升溫後收小幅上漲，但領漲板塊依然分散。標普500指數上漲0.02%，道瓊工業指數上漲0.02%，那斯達克指數表現最佳，上漲0.12%，科技股的選擇性買盤提振了整體漲幅。小型股也出現上漲，羅素2000指數ETF上漲0.05%，英偉達股價下跌3.2%，美光科技在財報發布前股價活躍。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走低，交投於每桶73.58美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶77.47美元。美元指數在早盤一度觸及2026年新高101上方後走強。基準10年期美國公債殖利率維持在4%左右，目前暫無已確認的日內即時水準。

美元新聞

歐盟尋求擺脫美國信用卡依賴

歐洲中央銀行週二獲得了議會的關鍵支持，將推出數位歐元。數位歐元是一種電子支付方式，旨在減少歐元區對美國信用卡的依賴，而此時跨大西洋關係正日趨緊張。
數位歐元本質上是由中央銀行擔保、但由銀行或金融科技公司銷售的電子錢包，它將允許所有歐元區居民在線上和線下支付。

歐洲央行的數位現金計畫歷經六年籌備，自唐納德·川普重返白宮以來，這個問題變得更加緊迫。川普甚至對歐盟等老牌貿易夥伴加徵關稅，引發了人們的擔憂，即美國有朝一日可能會利用其對Visa 和 Mastercard 等支付網絡的支配地位。
在歐洲議會經濟委員會批准該規則草案之前，歐洲央行與各銀行進行了三年的爭論。銀行一直擔心存款外流和收入損失，並試圖限制該項目的範圍。
該法規草案稱：“引入數位歐元將,通過成為泛歐支付手段來減少對非歐洲供應商的過度依賴，並通過賦予歐盟公民在日常交易中選擇使用中央銀行貨幣進行支付的自由，將單一貨幣帶入數字時代。”
歐洲議會極右翼政治團體「主權國家歐洲」的西格伯特·弗蘭克·德羅澤表示，他的團體已投票反對該提案，這增加了議會全體會議需要再次投票的可能性。

如果全體會議上沒有反對意見，立法者應該在下個月開始與歐盟各國政府組成的歐洲理事會和歐盟委員會進行談判，目標是在年底前獲得最終批准。
歐洲央行計劃從明年下半年開始對數位歐元進行為期 12 個月的試點，然後在 2029 年全面推出。歐洲央行表示，期待議會通過最終立場。
在歐元區以外，中國一直在大規模試行數位人民幣，而印度和巴西等國也進行了相關試驗。英國則專注於研究，因為人們擔心隱私、金融穩定和對銀行業的影響，而美國總統川普則禁止聯準會發行數位貨幣。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”