2026/9/17

黃金新聞

收緊貨幣政策，金銀價格下跌

週三下午美國交易時段，現貨 黃金和 白銀價格走低。此前，聯準會宣布自2023年以來首次升息，並暗示可能需要進一步收緊貨幣政策以抑制通膨。截至發稿時，現貨黃金價格接近每盎司4,261.80美元，下跌0.72%；現貨白銀價格為每盎司62.82美元，下跌1.16%。
聯準會主席凱文沃什的記者會推高了殖利率和美元，北美股市收低。標普500指數下跌33.92點，跌幅0.4%，收在7551.81點；道瓊工業指數下跌631.21點，跌幅1.2%，收在51461.90點；那斯達克指數下跌3.15點，跌幅不到0.1%，收在25978.42點；羅素2000指數下跌11.47點，跌幅0.4%，收在2858.81點。在聯準會決議公佈前，歐洲股市收高，史托克歐洲600指數上漲0.46%，收在637.09點。倫敦富時100指數上漲0.28%至10688.47點，德國DAX指數上漲0.61%至25558.88點，法國CAC 40指數上漲0.62%至8140.59點，義大利富時MIB指數上漲0.80%至51969.12點。

在聯準會將聯邦基金利率目標區間調高25個基點至3.75%至4.00%後，市場對貴金屬的最新部位再次調降。更新後的預測顯示，18位聯準會官員中有16位預計年底前至少還會升息一次。沃什表示，通膨仍過高，市場認為此次升息並非僅是對油價上漲壓力的一次性回應。兩年期美國公債殖利率升至約4.734%，十年期公債殖利率回升至5.00%，美元指數攀升至100.25。週四公佈的初請失業金人數、費城聯邦儲備銀行製造業指數和新屋開工數據將成為檢驗經濟是否足以承受進一步緊縮政策的下一個關鍵指標。對黃金而言，市場傳遞的訊息是利率下行：市場預期升息已被消化，但點陣圖和沃什的言論仍然控制著實際收益率通道。
貴金屬回吐了聯準會紓困措施前的反彈。黃金回落至4,257.42美元的支撐區域附近，並仍低於最新技術分析圖中顯示的4,313.67美元阻力位。白銀跌破63.3172美元的關鍵點位，在未能守住64.3018美元阻力區域後，正測試62.1558美元的支撐位。尾盤走勢表明，在聯準會積極收緊貨幣政策的情況下，美元和收益率的敏感度仍然超過避險需求。多頭現在需要收益率迅速回落，否則阻力最小的路徑仍然是下探支撐位。

霍爾木茲海峽仍然是影響石油價格、通膨預期和防禦性需求的主要地緣政治通道，但周三的市場影響主要來自原油價格的部分回落，而非新一輪飆升。沙烏地阿拉伯透過阿曼提供更多原油供應後，油價下跌，緩解了人們對中東供應中斷的部分擔憂。同時，由於地區襲擊事件加劇，霍爾木茲海峽的船舶通行仍受限。布蘭特原油結算價下跌2.7%，至每桶105.83美元；WTI原油下跌3.2%，至每桶102.43美元。對於黃金而言，情況依然複雜：油價下跌緩解了部分短期通膨壓力，但原油價格高於每桶100美元以及海灣航運受限，使得聯準會仍需關注如何防止能源通膨蔓延至整個經濟。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走低，交易價格在每桶102.43美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶105.83美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率接近5.00%。美元指數走強。

美元新聞

聯準會升息預期也在考慮之中

週二，受原油價格高企的拖累，英鎊兌美元匯率跌至一個多月以來的最低水平，而本周英國央行和美聯儲將公佈利率決議。
英鎊下跌0.2%至1.347美元，徘徊在8月7日以來的最低水準附近。週二，美元兌大多數貨幣走強，因為市場預期聯準會本週晚些時候幾乎肯定會升息。

週二，受原油價格高企的拖累，英鎊兌美元匯率跌至一個多月以來的最低水平，而本周英國央行和美聯儲將公佈利率決議。
英鎊下跌0.2%至1.347美元，徘徊在8月7日以來的最低水準附近。週二，美元兌大多數貨幣走強，因為市場預期聯準會本週晚些時候幾乎肯定會升息。
本週，市場對聯準會升息的預期不斷升溫，支撐了美元走強。歐洲央行上周也提高了借貸成本。

根據倫敦證券交易所集團 (LSEG) 彙編的數據顯示，英國央行預計將在周四維持利率不變，但交易員們已充分預期央行將升息 25 個基點，並且年底前再次升息的可能性很高。
英國就業市場依然疲軟，薪資成長接近六年來的最低水平，職缺數量為 2021 年以來最少，招聘人數也在下降。
「勞動市場的疲軟一直是抑制市場對利率因持續的能源成本衝擊而上調預期的關鍵因素。但現在市場已經開始預期利率會大幅上漲，」阿伯丁經濟學家費利克斯·費瑟表示。
《每日電訊報》報道稱，英國央行本週將宣布停止出售受全球債務市場拋售影響的長期政府債券，這可能會為財政大臣約翰希利釋放一些現金。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.