2026/7/9

黃金新聞

黃金價格下跌

週三下午美股交易時段，現貨黃金和白銀價格大幅下跌，原因是美伊緊張局勢再度升級、原油價格大幅上漲以及美聯儲鷹派講話推高了美國國債收益率和美元匯率。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,074.70美元，下跌0.73%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司58.13美元，下跌2.85%。

黃金當日交易區間為每盎司4021.10美元至4134.90美元，價格高於4000美元區域，但遠低於先前反彈的4200美元區域。白銀當日交易區間為每盎司57.11美元至61.15美元，在未能守住60.00美元區域後，價格繼續反轉。
週四公佈的6月就業報告對金屬的利好已不如報告發布後立即顯現的積極態勢。 6月非農就業人數增加5.7萬人，失業率維持在4.2%不變。 4月和5月非農就業人數合計下調7.4萬人，最初支撐了金價，降低了市場對聯準會進一步收緊貨幣政策的迫切性。但隨著原油價格走高，以及聯準會會議紀要顯示官員們仍然關注持續的通膨，且市場對短期利率的預期轉向更長期的升息路徑，這種利好因素在周三逐漸消退。 10年期美國公債殖利率攀升至4.5812%，2年期公債殖利率升至4.2182%，美元指數（DXY）達到101.18，創下7月2日以來的最高水準。

霍爾木茲海峽的局勢最好被描述為在面臨持續攻擊風險的情況下仍保持開放通行，而非已確認的咽喉要道關閉。這次局勢升級源自於美國指責伊朗襲擊了霍爾木茲海峽的三艘商船，隨後在川普總統宣布停火「結束」後，美軍對伊朗發動了新一輪空襲。 WTI原油價格上漲6.45%至每桶74.93美元，布蘭特原油價格上漲6.18%至每桶78.73美元，進一步加強了地緣政治風險、能源通膨、殖利率和美元之間的關聯。對黃金而言，此次上漲並非純粹的避險需求；油價上漲和聯準會利率政策的影響佔據主導地位，而白銀則受到更大衝擊，因為工業風險和清算壓力導致金銀比價擴大。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格大幅上漲，交易價格在每桶74.93美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶78.73美元。美元指數走強，交易價格接近101.18。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.58%附近交易。

美元新聞

美國恢復對伊朗的攻擊後，美元升至一周高點

週三亞洲交易時段開盤，美元兌大多數主要貨幣維持在本週最高水平，原因是美國再次對伊朗發動襲擊，加劇了地緣政治緊張局勢，並推高了油價。
衡量美元兌一籃子六種貨幣強弱的美元指數報101.18，為7月2日以來的最高水準。

在美國週二對伊朗發動新一輪打擊並撤銷伊朗石油銷售許可證後，避險貨幣的需求激增。此前，三艘油輪在霍爾木茲海峽遭到攻擊。
西太平洋銀行分析師在研究報告中寫道，伊朗襲擊霍爾木茲海峽船隻後，人們對和平協議穩定性的擔憂再次浮現。他們寫道：“通膨前景成為關注焦點，全球收益率普遍走高。”
週三亞洲交易時段開始時，布蘭特原油上漲2.6%，至每桶76.12美元，延續了連續第二天的漲勢。

在新西蘭儲備銀行稍後將做出決定之前，紐西蘭元上漲 0.1%，至 0.5681 美元。市場普遍預期，紐西蘭儲備銀行將在稍後做出決定，將三年多來首次升息。
美元兌日圓上漲0.1%，至162.28日圓。日本央行理事淺田東一郎是6月央行升息決定中唯一持反對意見者，他週一告訴路透社，他必須看到需求驅動型通膨的跡象，才會支持進一步升息。
歐元兌美元下跌0.1%至1.1405美元，英鎊兌美元小幅下跌0.1%至1.3353美元，澳幣兌美元維持0.6926美元。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”