2025/5/23

黃金新聞

黃金面臨溫和的獲利回吐壓力

週四美國午盤交易中，金價小幅走低，白銀價格溫和下跌。今天短期期貨交易商出現了一些獲利回吐的壓力，但由於全球債券市場變得有些不穩定，避險金屬呈現出看漲的潛在基調。 6 月黃金價格下跌 12.20 美元，至 3,301.30 美元。 7 月白銀價格最新下跌 0.436 美元，至 33.21 美元。

由於週三中午拍賣的美國 20 年期公債並未受到投資者的歡迎，本週稍後市場變得緊張不安。這對市場來說是一件大事。 《巴倫周刊》今天表示：「債券市場比股票市場更古老、更明智，它通常不會有好運。但一旦它有好運，就要小心了。」美國30年期公債殖利率突破5%，達到2023年10月以來的最高水平。在周三美國公債拍賣走勢動盪之後，日本公債殖利率大幅上漲，30年期日債殖利率升至3.1872%的歷史高點。週三美國債券拍賣後，全球債券市場也受到震動。
美國國債市場也不喜歡川普政府新的稅收和支出法案在國會獲得通過。國會預算辦公室表示，該法案將使美國2026年至2034年間的預算赤字增加3.8兆美元。

今日關鍵的外部市場表現為美元指數走強。紐約商品交易所原油期貨價格下跌，交易價格約為每桶 61.00 美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前約4.5%。
從技術面來看，六月黃金期貨多頭擁有整體近期技術優勢。 多頭的下一個上行目標價是收盤價高於 3,400.00 美元的堅固阻力位。

美元新聞

美元因預算法案擔憂和20年債券拍賣疲軟而下跌

美元兌多種貨幣週三下跌，因為對川普政府減稅和支出法案的擔憂，以及 20 年期美國國債銷售疲軟，強化了投資者正在迴避美國資產的觀點。
共和黨內部對於稅收立法的細節仍然存在分歧。美國總統川普週二會見了眾議院共和黨人，但未能說服黨內反對者支持他的全面稅收法案。眾議院議長麥克約翰遜表示，共和黨強硬派繼續認為該法案沒有充分削減開支。

與此同時，在 160 億美元 20 年期債券銷售疲軟之後，美元兌歐元和日圓等主要貨幣繼續下跌。該債券的定價達到創紀錄的5.047%，高於投標截止日期的預期利率，表明投資者要求溢價來購買該債券。
拍賣結束後，美國20年期公債殖利率達到2023年11月以來的最高水準5.127%。美元兌歐元和日圓因此擴大跌幅。
舊金山 Action Economics 全球固定收益分析董事總經理 Kim Rupert 表示：“令人失望的拍賣結果……符合對美國資產需求減弱以及財政擔憂下‘拋售美國資產’交易的說法。”
“眾議院審議的稅收法案進一步加劇了人們的緊張情緒。”

下午交易中，歐元兌美元上漲 0.4%，至 1.1334 美元，此前曾攀升至兩週高點。
無黨派分析師稱，川普的稅收法案將使美國債務增加 3 兆至 5 兆美元。
交易員們也擔心，美國官員可能會在加拿大舉行的七國集團財長會議期間，將美元貶值作為獨立貿易協議的一部分。
近幾個月來，川普發起的全球關稅戰導致貨幣大幅波動，但本週，儘管在沒有新協議的情況下，美國對貿易夥伴的 90 天關稅暫緩期即將結束，但事態發展已大幅放緩。

Market Commentary

Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index

Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”

Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.

Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”