2026/10/15

黃金新聞

黃金價格跌破4,100美元，白銀暴跌6%

週三美股尾盤交易中，黃金和 白銀價格大幅下跌，原因是高於預期的美國消費者通膨數據推高了美國國債收益率，美元走強，並加劇了市場對美聯儲進一步收緊貨幣政策的預期。由於貴金屬拋售加劇，白銀跌幅尤為嚴重。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4098.80美元，下跌61.30美元，跌幅1.47%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司55.410美元，下跌3.640美元，跌幅6.16%。
受通膨報告引發科技股和其他對利率敏感的股票拋售，北美股市大幅收跌。標普500指數下跌86.51點，跌幅1.1%，收在7718.94點，創下7月以來最大單日表現。道瓊工業指數下跌48.62點，跌幅0.1%，收在51621.48點。那斯達克指數下跌511.51點，跌幅1.9%，收在26692.87點。羅素2000指數下跌53.84點，跌幅1.9%，收在2729.53點。

歐洲股市收盤普遍上漲，表現優於華爾街，強勁的企業獲利抵消了美國通膨意外帶來的不利影響。斯托克歐洲600指數上漲0.43%，收在637.75點，醫療保健類股上漲2.3%，半導體設備需求走強，支撐了歐洲股市的整體趨勢。德國DAX指數上漲0.2%，收在25,298.61點；法國CAC 40指數上漲0.6%，收在7873.11點；英國富時100指數上漲0.7%，收在10,724.86點。義大利富時MIB指數逆勢下跌0.61%，收在49,753.84點。
9月消費者物價指數（CPI）較上月上漲0.6%，較去年同期上漲3.7%，高於市場普遍預期的3.6%，此後市場部位發生了顯著變化。核心通膨率季增0.3%，年增2.6%，同樣超出預期。汽油價格飆漲9.1%，佔當月整體漲幅的一半以上。市場預期聯準會10月升息的可能性從數據公佈前的約20%升至近40%，同時市場繼續預期年底前貨幣政策將進一步收緊。 10年期美國公債殖利率一度升至5.3%附近，隨後回落至5.27%區域，美元走強。週三發布的聯準會褐皮書加劇了市場對通膨的擔憂，數據顯示四個地區的物價上漲速度加快，燃油相關成本普遍承壓，而就業淨變化甚微。
接下來的考驗是週四公佈的9月份生產者物價指數（PPI）、零售銷售和每周初請失業金人數，以及週五公佈的進出口價格和工業生產數據。生產者物價走軟和支出疲軟可能會抑制殖利率的上漲，穩定金價；通膨數據若再次超出預期，就會加劇市場收緊的趨勢。

霍爾木茲海峽和美伊局勢仍然是能源市場不確定性的主要來源。週三，伊朗支持的胡塞武裝襲擊了沙烏地阿美公司位於達蘭的一座行政大樓，引發火災，但據報道沒有人員傷亡或對石油生產造成直接影響，油價因此上漲。霍爾木茲海峽附近發生的針對商船的襲擊事件，使油輪安全和海灣地區出口可靠性成為關注焦點，而美伊衝突遲遲未能得到持久解決，也推高了供應風險溢價。布蘭特原油價格上漲至每桶106.06美元，WTI原油價格上漲至每桶95.09美元。
短期內，通膨向貴金屬的傳導效應依然不利：地緣政治不確定性支撐了投資者對黃金的避險需求，但原油價格高企推高了通膨預期，並強化了升息的必要性。此外，白銀還面臨能源和融資成本持續高企抑制工業活動的額外風險。

美元新聞

華爾街和加密貨幣公司帶來審查

民主黨在國會兩院之一或兩院取得勝利，並不會阻止唐納德·特朗普總統的政府向華爾街銀行、預測市場和加密貨幣公司提供監管優惠，但會賦予民主黨強大的工具來調查這些行業及其監管機構。
民調顯示，民主黨有望贏得眾議院，並在參議院的競選中佔優勢。如果民主黨在參眾兩院中獲勝，它將獲得傳喚權、更大的調查人員隊伍，以及傳喚機構負責人和企業首席執行官作證的權力，這將給被調查者帶來麻煩和潛在的法律糾紛。

「本屆政府執政頭兩年發生的一切都應接受調查，」貝克·霍斯特勒律師事務所合夥人、眾議院金融服務委員會前首席法律顧問凱文·埃德加表示。
該政府的金融政策議程包括放鬆其認為過於繁瑣、阻礙經濟成長的規則和監管，同時促進其認為能夠提振經濟的創新，包括加密貨幣和預測市場。
根據路透社報道，民主黨人已準備對川普及其家人與加密貨幣和預測市場行業的關聯展開調查。他們認為此類交易有利益衝突。民主黨也一直推動加強對預測市場的監管，他們認為這些市場可能為不當行為開闢新的途徑，並允許政府內部人員洩露機密信息，從而損害國家安全。

預測市場方面表示，他們會嚴密防範不當行為。政府則表示，支持加密貨幣和預測市場創新將有助於留住美國的就業機會和資本。
9 月 30 日，眾議院監督委員會民主黨成員羅·卡納在接受路透社電話採訪時被問及此類潛在調查，他表示：“我絕對認為我們需要調查這些金融交易、這些加密貨幣交易，看看我們的國家安全是否受到了損害。”

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.