2026/11/9

黃金新聞

民主黨在中期選舉中大獲全勝，提振了黃金價格

民主黨在美國中期選舉中取得壓倒性勝利，為黃金市場帶來了一定的積極勢頭，但近期的價格走勢表明，政治發展仍是次要因素，美聯儲的貨幣政策繼續主導著投資者的情緒。
儘管金價在選舉後大幅上漲，但投資者在周末前再次關注每盎司4000美元的關鍵支撐位。
金價在選舉日後從每盎司3900美元左右飆升至4145美元的高位，這波上漲似乎是由債券收益率下降、美元走軟以及上周大幅拋售後空頭回補所推動的。

然而，強於預期的美國就業數據強化了市場預期，即聯準會將繼續保持緊縮政策傾向，以應對持續的通膨。
最新的經濟數據凸顯了黃金面臨的挑戰，因為更高的利率和債券殖利率增加了持有這種無收益貴金屬的機會成本。
儘管美國貨幣政策在短期內仍是影響黃金價格的主要因素，但這對長期投資者而言可能不是壞事。正如我們近幾週所指出的，許多分析師仍然將金價下跌視為戰術性買入機會，尤其是在支撐黃金的基本面因素基本上保持不變的情況下。

過去幾個月來，推動黃金價格上漲的關鍵因素是美元貶值交易的演變，因為不可持續的債務成長已超過40兆美元。
民主黨掌控國會可能會帶來一些有趣的政治動態，尤其是在議員們於1月獲得對聯邦支出更大的控制權之後。
儘管政治僵局可能會限制川普總統推行其財政議程的能力，但民主黨控制的國會能否顯著改善美國日益惡化的財政狀況仍存疑。
兩黨政客都表現出對真正控制支出缺乏興趣。優先事項可能會發生變化，但政府債務不斷攀升和持續赤字等根本性挑戰不太可能消失。

美元新聞

美元維持非農就業數據帶來的成長

週一，美元兌歐元匯率接近1年半高位，兌澳元匯率接近7個月高點。此前，由於強勁的美國就業數據推高了市場對升息的預期，美元在上週五創下近6個月來的最大漲幅。
紐西蘭貨幣在周末大選結果難分伯仲、政府實力受損後，從七個月來的低點反彈。不過，由於計票仍在進行中，該國仍需等到本月底才能知道誰會執政。

衡量美元兌包括歐元在內的六種主要貨幣匯率的美元指數週一早盤穩定在102.20，此前該指數在上週五上漲了約0.7%，當時數據顯示10月份就業成長加速，失業率下降。
歐元兌美元小幅上漲 0.1%，至 1.11485 美元。此前，歐元兌美元週五下跌 0.7%，並觸及 1.1132 美元的低點，距離一周前的低點 1.1105 美元不遠，這是自 2025 年 5 月以來的最低水平。
澳元上漲0.3%至0.6875美元，此前週五澳元下跌超過1%，至3月31日以來的最低點0.6855美元。

美元兌日圓下跌0.2%，至158.185日圓，此前週五美元兌日圓上漲了0.6%。
日本央行行長上田一夫週五表示，央行預計核心通膨率將維持在 2% 的目標附近，但也承認存在「一些上行風險」。
根據芝加哥商品交易所集團的 FedWatch 工具顯示，期貨市場暗示聯準會在 12 月 9 日昇息的機率約為 79%，而一週前這一機率為 71%。
由於投資人擔心人工智慧投資、獲利能力和監管前景，尤其是在本月初民主黨橫掃美國中期選舉之後，全球科技股遭遇重挫，市場對聯準會下個月收緊貨幣政策的預期有所減弱。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.