2026/3/3

黃金新聞

隨著美元指數上漲，黃金，白銀價格下跌

黃金價格上漲，但較隔夜高點回落約100美元；白銀價格回吐隔夜漲幅，大幅下跌。美元指數今日強勁反彈，觸及五周高位，對貴金屬帶來下行壓力。短期期貨交易者的獲利回吐以及疲軟的多頭平倉是今日市場的主要因素。此外，隔夜及今日早盤市場普遍存在的避險情緒似乎在今日午盤前後有所緩解。 4月黃金期貨最新上漲65美元，報每盎司5,311.50美元。 3月白銀期貨下跌4.877美元，每盎司87.645美元。

週一，由於中東戰亂導致油價飆升，加劇了通膨擔憂，貨幣市場減少了對美國、英國和歐元區降息的押注。彭博社通報：「根據與政策會議日期掛鉤的互換交易，聯準會在2026年三次降息的可能性已從上週的近50%降至20%。交易員不再預期英國央行今年會降息三次，並將3月份降息的可能性從80%以上下調至60%。他們將歐洲央行今年降息的可能性減半，目前僅降基數，目前僅降低報告還指出：“美國、英國和德國的兩年期國債收益率——這些收益率對貨幣政策的變化最為敏感——的漲幅超過了長期國債收益率。這反映出通脹指標的急劇上升。”

今日其他主要外部市場原油價格穩定上漲，但較隔夜高點大幅回落，隔夜觸及八個月高點，目前交易價格約為每桶70.50美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前約4.00%。

美元新聞

美元重奪避險資產地位，伊朗攻擊事件引發緊張局勢

美國對伊朗發動攻擊後美元大幅上漲，這讓投資人確信美元仍然是全球避險貨幣，隨著中東地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，美元正在重新扮演其傳統的危機時代角色。
在人們對美元在市場承壓時期的本能吸引力日益產生懷疑之後，避險需求再次出現。這種懷疑情緒源自於去年關稅引發的全球市場拋售潮，當時美元未能反彈。

週一，美元全面走強，美元指數上漲近1%，創七個月來最佳單日表現。
「從美元的角度來看，我認為今天是一個典型的避險日，」加拿大豐業銀行外匯策略師埃里克·西奧雷特表示。
「我認為『解放日』顯然與我們以往的歷史事件有所不同，」他說道，指的是美國於 2025 年 4 月 2 日宣布全面加徵關稅，引發了全球市場（包括美元）的急劇拋售。
這對美元來說無疑是個好消息，因為近幾個月來，美元作為避險資產的長期地位受到了歐元、日圓以及黃金的挑戰。

分析師認為，美國市場的深度和穩健性對美元有利。
「如果你想降低風險，尤其是縮小風險規模，美國國債市場是唯一能夠處理此類資金流動的市場，」西奧雷特說。危機期間，全球投資者湧入美國國債市場，這將推高對美元的需求。
丹佛美世顧問公司首席投資長唐卡爾卡尼表示，由於缺乏美元的替代貨幣，投資人在市場波動加劇時很難置身事外。
「所以，美元繼續作為避險資產發揮作用，我可能並不感到驚訝，」卡爾卡尼說。

Market Commentary

Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher

While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.

Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”

Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”