2026/10/16

黃金新聞

黃金價格逼近4,170美元，白銀上漲3%

週四美股尾盤交易中，黃金和 白銀價格大幅上漲，美國國債收益率下降、美元走軟以及避險需求回升，推動貴金屬從週三受通膨影響的拋售潮中反彈。儘管美國生產者通膨報告強於預期，但未能扭轉政府公債的漲勢，市場擔憂負債累累的人工智慧公司將資金投入國債。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,168.70美元，上漲64.20美元，漲幅1.56%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司57.310美元，上漲1.800美元，漲幅3.24%。
北美股市在早盤大幅下跌後收高，美國公債殖利率下降以及科技板塊以外的板塊走強抵消了市場對人工智慧基礎設施支出持續存在的擔憂。標普500指數上漲0.3%，收復了早盤約0.6%的跌幅。道瓊工業指數上漲1.1%，醫療保健、零售和其他防禦型股票支撐了該指數。那斯達克指數收漲0.1%，扭轉了盤中約1.4%的跌幅。科技股波動依然較大，但隨著交易的進行，整體市場參與度有所提高。

歐洲股市也普遍收高，強勁的獲利表現和防禦型板塊的需求推動該地區股市跑贏亞洲科技股為主的市場。斯托克歐洲600指數上漲約0.3%，收在639.85點。英國富時100指數上漲1.08%，收在10,840.35點；德國DAX指數上漲0.33%，收在25,382.62點；法國CAC 40指數上漲0.78%，收在7,934.70點。義大利富時MIB指數逆勢下跌0.72%，收在49,397.55點。歐洲醫療保健和電信部門表現突出，而科技股和銀行股則面臨拋售壓力。
市場情緒依然在通膨加速和對經濟及金融市場韌性的擔憂之間搖擺不定。9月生產者物價指數（PPI）較上季上漲1.3%，較去年同期上漲6.3%，創下自2022年3月以來的最大月漲幅。最終能源需求價格飆漲10.8%，其中汽油價格上漲20.3%。此前，週三公佈的消費者物價指數（CPI）較上月上漲0.6%，較去年同期上漲3.7%，均高於預期。 9月零售銷售額成長0.8%，顯示消費者需求依然強勁，而首次申請失業救濟人數小幅上升至19.9萬人。
儘管通膨數據出乎意料，但交易員仍然認為聯準會10月升息的可能性低於暫停升息。期貨價格顯示，10月27日至28日會議升息的機率約為29%至34%，而市場對12月份進一步收緊貨幣政策的預期依然較高。由於人工智慧相關信貸和股票市場的疲軟推高了對政府公債的需求，10年期美國公債殖利率下跌約10個基點至5.09%，創下自2025年8月以來的最大單日跌幅。美元指數也出現回落，緩解了對無收益金屬的壓力。接下來的政策考驗將是周五公佈的進出口價格、工業生產數據以及聯準會主席凱文沃什在曼谷舉行的國際貨幣基金組織會議上的演講。短期內，較低的收益率支撐著黃金價格，但持續的通膨仍使美元走強和實際收益率上升的風險籠罩市場。

儘管區域原油出口已從早期的中斷中復甦，但霍爾木茲海峽和美伊局勢仍然是能源市場不確定性的重要來源。油輪襲擊和海峽週邊更廣泛的安全威脅持續阻礙商業航運，而華盛頓正在考慮放鬆對某些運油船的製裁，以提高油輪可用性並降低運輸成本。波斯灣地區的原油出口已大幅恢復，但仍容易受到再次中斷的影響。布蘭特原油價格小幅下跌至每桶105.92美元，而美國WTI原油價格則大幅上漲至每桶96.50美元，主要得益於國內庫存降幅超出預期以及颶風造成的生產中斷。油價的分化凸顯了市場供需雙方的博弈壓力。
對黃金而言，懸而未決的美伊衝突持續支撐著防禦性需求，而高企的能源價格仍構成通膨風險，最終可能再次推高殖利率。白銀的反彈反映了貴金屬整體的復甦，儘管工業需求的擔憂仍然構成限制因素。

美元新聞

華爾街和加密貨幣公司帶來審查

民主黨在國會兩院之一或兩院取得勝利，並不會阻止唐納德·特朗普總統的政府向華爾街銀行、預測市場和加密貨幣公司提供監管優惠，但會賦予民主黨強大的工具來調查這些行業及其監管機構。
民調顯示，民主黨有望贏得眾議院，並在參議院的競選中佔優勢。如果民主黨在參眾兩院中獲勝，它將獲得傳喚權、更大的調查人員隊伍，以及傳喚機構負責人和企業首席執行官作證的權力，這將給被調查者帶來麻煩和潛在的法律糾紛。

「本屆政府執政頭兩年發生的一切都應接受調查，」貝克·霍斯特勒律師事務所合夥人、眾議院金融服務委員會前首席法律顧問凱文·埃德加表示。
該政府的金融政策議程包括放鬆其認為過於繁瑣、阻礙經濟成長的規則和監管，同時促進其認為能夠提振經濟的創新，包括加密貨幣和預測市場。
根據路透社報道，民主黨人已準備對川普及其家人與加密貨幣和預測市場行業的關聯展開調查。他們認為此類交易有利益衝突。民主黨也一直推動加強對預測市場的監管，他們認為這些市場可能為不當行為開闢新的途徑，並允許政府內部人員洩露機密信息，從而損害國家安全。

預測市場方面表示，他們會嚴密防範不當行為。政府則表示，支持加密貨幣和預測市場創新將有助於留住美國的就業機會和資本。
9 月 30 日，眾議院監督委員會民主黨成員羅·卡納在接受路透社電話採訪時被問及此類潛在調查，他表示：“我絕對認為我們需要調查這些金融交易、這些加密貨幣交易，看看我們的國家安全是否受到了損害。”

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.