2026/8/12

黃金新聞

金價維持在近兩個月高點

週二下午美國交易時段，黃金和 白銀價格小幅上漲，受霍爾木茲海峽對峙局勢引發的避險需求抵消了美元走強和利率仍居高不下的影響。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,412.50美元，當日上漲0.56%；現貨白銀交易價格為每盎司65.680美元，上漲0.13%。

最新的市場部位仍是周三CPI報告和周四生產者價格數據公佈前的兩極化交易。上週疲軟的就業數據支撐了對利率敏感的黃金價格，但原油價格反彈以及通膨路徑依然高企，使得市場對聯準會9月會議的預期再次變得難以預測。 10年期美國公債殖利率接近4.7%，美元走強，避險資金流入支撐了黃金價格，但限制了其突破盤中高點的潛力。
北美股市在上週創下歷史新高後，本週收盤走軟。標普500指數下跌0.3%，收在7728.20點；道瓊工業指數下跌0.3%，收在53791.85點；那斯達克綜合指數下跌0.6%，收在26445.45點；羅素2000指數上漲0.3%，收在2627.12點。歐洲方面，史托克600指數上漲0.05%，收在661點；德國DAX指數上漲0.17%；義大利富時MIB指數上漲0.13%；英國富時100指數下跌0.16%；法國CAC 40指數下跌0.13%。

霍爾木茲海峽仍然是金屬和能源市場的主要地緣政治風險溢價來源。伊朗新任命的最高國家安全委員會秘書表示，除非華盛頓接受德黑蘭的條件，否則水道將繼續關閉。同時，美國總統川普又提出了新的要求，要求伊朗賠償。巴基斯坦曾經一度燃起人們對達成協議的希望，但週二的價格走勢表明，市場尚未準備好為近期重新開放海峽定價。布蘭特原油結算價為每桶88.91美元，上漲1.4%；WTI原油結算價為每桶83.20美元，上漲1.3%。這些因素維持了市場的通膨風險，並對黃金價格的支撐作用大於白銀價格。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走高，交易價格在每桶83.20美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶88.91美元。美元指數走強。 （Kitco全球指數顯示了今日黃金價格波動中美元相對於黃金市場本身的影響程度。）基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.7%附近交易。

美元新聞

美元走弱，市場等待美國通膨數據以尋找聯準會的指引

週三亞洲交易時段開盤，美元橫盤整理，並未受到中東重要水道航運再次遭受襲擊的影響，外匯市場正等待當天晚些時候公佈的全球通膨數據。
日圓兌美元匯率持平於 159.275 日圓，儘管美國和日本當局最近聯合幹預以提振日圓，但日圓仍徘徊在本月最低水準附近；歐元兌美元匯率保持穩定，為 1.1542 美元。

英鎊兌美元匯率也維持不變，報1.3508美元。澳幣兌紐西蘭元匯率和紐元匯率分別持平於0.7064美元和0.5879美元。
交易員們也關注紐西蘭總理克里斯托弗·盧克森週三在惠靈頓與國家黨議員舉行的會議 ，此時距離大選僅剩幾個月，外界對他能否繼續擔任總理的猜測也越來越多。
本週市場的主要關注點是將於週三晚些時候公佈的美國通膨數據，以尋找聯準會利率走向的線索。上週低於預期的就業報告以及聯準會主席凱文沃什上個月的新聞發布會，都未能消除人們的疑慮。

荷蘭國際集團(ING)分析師寫道：“假設油價保持穩定且霍爾木茲海峽重新開放，那麼隨著2026年剩餘時間的推進，通膨有望放緩。事實上，市場已經預期通膨將溫和著陸。”
週三亞洲油價恢復交易後，油價小漲，布蘭特原油上漲0.6%，至每桶89.40美元。此前，伊朗支持的胡塞武裝襲擊了曼德海峽的一艘貨船，而美國軍方則襲擊了巴基斯坦附近試圖突破其對霍爾木茲海峽封鎖的一艘貨櫃船。
芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行行長奧斯坦·古爾斯比周二表示，央行更擔心的是過高的通膨，而不是勞動力市場的疲軟，儘管目前尚不清楚他的這一立場是否與上個月支持升息的少數政策制定者的立場一致。

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.