2026/10/13

黃金新聞

12月升息風險，金銀價格走軟

週一收盤後，現貨黃金和白銀價格走低，美元走強、油價再度走強以及美國國債收益率風險上升抵消了與霍爾木茲海峽局勢和美伊衝突相關的避險需求。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,168.90美元，下跌0.59%；現貨白銀交易價格為每盎司60.120美元，下跌0.96%。
最新的價格走勢與其說是聯準會10月的短期行動，不如說是本周公布的通膨數據是否會重啟12月的緊縮政策。此前，市場預期10月升息的可能性約為17%，12月份至少升息一次的可能性約為87.7%。這是因為近期美國經濟數據疲軟降低了短期升息的風險，但油價上漲引發的通膨擔憂仍維持著年底政策風險。 9月的CPI數據將於週三公佈，PPI和零售銷售數據將於週四公佈。

這種局面使得黃金價格容易受到美元和實際收益率的影響，儘管ETF需求和央行購買仍在市場下方提供支撐。
霍爾木茲海峽仍是能源和金屬市場的核心地緣政治風險溢價來源。伊朗安全部長穆赫辛·雷扎伊表示，美國對德黑蘭提出的七項重新開放該水道條件的最新回應不足，在這些條件得到滿足之前，雙方不會進行談判。目前的市場影響顯而易見：布蘭特原油結算價上漲1.8%，至每桶106.65美元；WTI原油上漲2.1%，至每桶93.74美元；而黃金未能守住早盤一周高位，原因是能源價格上漲加劇了通膨和聯準會風險的擔憂。

北美股市收盤漲跌互現。標普500指數下跌4.30點，跌幅0.1%，收在7807.24點；道瓊工業指數上漲195.60點，漲幅0.4%，收在51850.55點；那斯達克指數下跌120.27點，跌幅0.4%，收在27245.90點；羅素2000指數下跌12.50點，跌幅0.4%，收在2794.48點。歐洲股市方面，史托克歐洲600指數上漲0.65%至635.65點，德國DAX指數上漲0.76%至25277.68點，法國CAC 40指數上漲0.38%至7832.88點，英國富時100指數上漲0.99%至10656.289%，義大利富時100指數上漲0.99%至10656.2830.2830.28%指數。西班牙IBEX 35指數領漲該地區，上漲1.33%。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走高，交易價格在每桶93.74美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶106.65美元。美元指數走強。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在周一現金債休市前報5.24%，目前仍遠高於5%，繼續對無收益資產構成壓力。

美元新聞

油價下跌導緻美元走軟

由於油價下跌導緻美元走軟，英鎊週五上漲。預計本週英鎊兌美元匯率變動不大，但兌歐元匯率走強。
過去兩週，受能源價格上漲推動，全球債券殖利率大幅上升，導致外匯市場動盪不安。

由於法國國債殖利率飆升，歐元遭受重創，而對該國預算赤字的擔憂加劇了這一局面；與此同時，對避險資產的尋求推高了美元。
然而，油價下跌幫助全球債券殖利率脫離了數十年來的高位，並緩解了貨幣壓力，美元走低。
英鎊兌美元匯率最新上漲0.1%，報1.324美元。週四，由於美元走強，英鎊兌美元匯率跌至1.3184美元，接近6月下旬以來的最低水準。
英鎊兌歐元匯率變化不大，歐元兌英鎊匯率為 84.74 便士。
英鎊兌歐元預計將連續第二週上漲，此前英鎊上周大幅反彈，並在周三觸及 2025 年 6 月以來的最高點，即每歐元 84.49 便士。

美國總統川普表示，美國不會在下個月的美國大選前攻擊伊朗，並稱已與德黑蘭就戰爭問題進行了富有成效的會談。受此消息影響，布蘭特原油價格下跌1%，至每桶103.30美元。
投資銀行荷蘭國際集團表示，由於能源價格支撐了聯準會進一步升息的理由，美元可能會保持強勢，其他貨幣將面臨壓力。
ING 貨幣策略師 Francesco Pesole 表示：“我們沒有看到美元出現更廣泛調整的跡象。”
“儘管墨西哥灣石油供應有所改善，但石油市場仍不願將地緣政治溢價計入價格，正是這種溢價使得油價一直保持在每桶100美元以上。”

Market Commentary

Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally

Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.

The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.