黃金價格上漲；白銀價格因獲利回吐而下跌
受今日公佈的遠低於預期的美國通膨報告提振，金價抹去了隔夜跌幅，並觸及兩個月高點。白銀價格走低，但較早前的暴跌有所回升，這是由於近期白銀期貨交易員獲利回吐所致，此前白銀價格在周三創下歷史新高。 2月黃金期貨最新上漲28.20美元，至每盎司4,400美元。 3月白銀期貨下跌0.641美元，至每盎司66.25美元。
美國2025年12月消費者物價指數（CPI）較去年同期上漲2.7%，為7月以來最低水平，低於先前預測的3.1%漲幅，也低於9月公佈的3.0%漲幅。同時，剔除食品和能源價格後的核心通膨率年增2.6%，為2021年3月以來最低水平，低於先前預測的3.0%。由於美國政府停擺，美國勞工統計局（BLS）未收集2025年10月的資料。因此，10月份的資料缺失，11月份的月度資料也未發布。不過，BLS表示，9月至11月這兩個月CPI上漲了0.2%。今天的CPI報告完全符合美國貨幣政策鴿派的預期，他們希望聯準會進一步降息。這將利好貴金屬，但利空美元。
今日主要外部市場方面，美元指數小幅走低。原油價格走強，交易價格在每桶56.50美元左右。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前為4.116%，在公佈溫和的美國CPI數據後有所下降。
從技術層面來看，2月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上行目標是突破合約/歷史高點4,433.00美元的強勁阻力位。
受人工智慧擔憂影響，股市指數下跌
受美國科技股拖累，MSCI全球股票指數週三下跌；與此同時，由於市場對美聯儲降息的預期重燃，以及美國總統唐納德·特朗普在委內瑞拉問題上的最新舉措引發了避險需求，白銀價格創下歷史新高，黃金價格連續第七個交易日上漲。
在川普下令「封鎖」所有進出委內瑞拉的受制裁油輪後，油價走高。華盛頓透過打擊委內瑞拉的主要收入來源，加大了對尼古拉斯馬杜羅政府的壓力。
另一方面，預計將接受面試以接替聯準會主席鮑威爾的聯準會理事克里斯多福沃勒表示，鑑於就業市場疲軟的跡象，美國央行仍有降息空間。
在美國股市，受人工智慧泡沫擔憂加劇的影響，科技股拖累標普500指數走低。人工智慧晶片領先企業英偉達（NVDA.O）的股價也受到衝擊。開啟新分頁拖累股價的最大因素是Alphabet （GOOGL.O）的股價下跌，跌幅達3.8%。路透社通報稱，Alphabet的股價下跌了3.8%。開啟新分頁谷歌正努力削弱英偉達的軟體優勢。
儘管甲骨文公司宣布，支持資料中心專案的股權交易談判正在按計劃進行，且不涉及 Blue Owl Capital (OWL.N)，試圖以此安撫投資者，但該公司股價仍收跌 5.4%。開啟新分頁此前有報道稱，兩家公司之間的談判陷入僵局。
「目前看來，市場對這種單一的人工智慧基礎設施故事確實感到疲倦，而收入循環性問題、資本支出合理化以及並非所有參與者都能同時獲勝的事實，似乎正變得越來越被市場所接受，」巴恩森集團首席投資官大衛·巴恩森表示。
Baird Private Wealth Management 的投資策略師羅斯·梅菲爾德表示，「人們對人工智慧交易感到焦慮」。
華爾街的道瓊工業指數（.DJI）開啟新分頁標普500指數(.SPX)下跌228.29點，跌幅0.47%，收在47,885.97點。開啟新分頁下跌78.83點，跌幅1.16%，收在6721.43點，那斯達克指數（.IXIC）下跌78.83點。開啟新分頁下跌 418.14 點，跌幅 1.81%，至 22,693.32 點。
Gold remains on the path to $4,000 as the US dollar weakens
Gold prices surged to a one-month high above $3,400 an ounce Thursday, supported by persistent U.S. dollar weakness. Analysts at Bank of America expect the rally to continue, maintaining their forecast that the yellow metal will hit $4,000 an ounce by the first half of 2026.
In a report published last week, the bank said falling interest rates and a weaker dollar will underpin the metal’s gains.
“Potential rate cuts amid increasing inflation create fertile ground for dollar depreciation,” analysts wrote. “Rate cuts in an environment of continued elevated inflation would, in all likelihood, push the precious metal higher.”
Spot gold last traded at $3,417.10 an ounce, up 0.64% on the day. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index last traded at 97.81 points, down 0.32% on the day.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as soon as September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders have nearly fully priced in a 25-basis-point move, with further easing possible in October and December.
“Recent US data have shifted our view on rates to the downside,” BofA said, pointing to softening labor market trends. “Recent cooling employment data, a narrowing in the breadth of employment growth & other signs of labor market moderation may support a shift the Fed's risk assessment.”
The bank added that political pressure on the Fed, including criticism from President Donald Trump, could weigh further on the dollar.
“Risks to Fed independence are well recognized, but the market now needs to contemplate the implications of institutional erosion at statistical agencies as well,” analysts said.
BofA warned that higher inflation could temporarily lift the dollar as markets scale back easing bets. Economists expect Friday’s core PCE index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—to show a 2.8% annual gain, unchanged from June.
However, Bank of America expects that any rally in the U.S. dollar will be sold.
“Should inflation data continue to come in on the sticky side, leading the Fed to push back more assertively on easing expectations, the USD could experience another relief rally, though we would view such an event as short-lived,” the analysts said.
