黃金走強，白銀走低
週四美國午盤交易中，黃金價格小幅上漲，白銀價格下跌。黃金在看漲圖表的推動下，出現了一些溫和的技術性買盤。白銀方面，短期期貨交易者出現了一些正常的獲利回吐，這是現有上漲趨勢中的正常回調。 2月黃金期貨合約最新上漲7.90美元，至每盎司4,240美元。 3月白銀期貨合約下跌1.16美元，至每盎司57.45美元。
今日公佈的每週初請失業金報告顯示，上周美國首次申請失業救濟人數降至三年多來的最低水平，顯示儘管近期裁員潮湧現，但雇主們仍基本留住了員工。該報告對貴金屬市場略顯不利，但並未影響聯準會的貨幣政策走向。市場普遍預期聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）下週將降息0.25個百分點。
從技術層面來看，2月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上行目標是突破合約/歷史高點4,433.00美元的強勁阻力位。
歐元觸及近七周高位，美元普遍走低
週三，歐元兌美元匯率觸及近七周高位，受歐元區商業活動擴張數據的提振，而弱於預期的美國就業數據以及市場對美國進一步降息的預期則對美元構成壓力。
11月份，歐元區商業活動以兩年半以來最快的速度擴張，強勁的服務業彌補了製造業的疲軟。
「歐洲的利多數據一直在緩慢上升，我認為市場已經開始關注這一點，」渣打銀行紐約分行全球G10外匯研究和北美宏觀策略主管史蒂夫·英格蘭德表示。
英格蘭德表示，週三其他幾種歐洲貨幣也走強，可能顯示市場對俄烏戰爭結束持樂觀態度。 “烏克蘭和平的到來將使所有這些貨幣受益。”
克里姆林宮週三表示，俄羅斯總統普丁接受了美國旨在結束烏克蘭戰爭的一些提議，拒絕了另一些提議，但俄羅斯準備與美國談判代表多次會面，直到達成協議為止。
歐元兌美元最新上漲0.43%，至1.1673美元，最高觸及1.1677美元，為10月17日以來的最高水準。瑞典克朗兌美元上漲0.76%，至9.371。美元兌挪威克朗下跌0.6%，至10.061。
紐約 Bannockburn Global Forex 首席市場策略師 Marc Chandler 表示，技術因素也可能推高歐元，打壓美元。
「自9月17日以來，美元走強，其他貨幣走弱，但這看起來主要是修正性的，我想知道我們是否已經開始了下一輪上漲，以重新挑戰今年早些時候（歐元）創下的高點，」他說。
9月17日，歐元兌美元匯率達到四年來的最高點1.1918美元。
美元指數下跌0.45%，報98.85，最低跌至98.82，為10月29日以來的最低水準。
ADP就業報告顯示，美國11月私部門就業人數意外下降，美元應聲下跌。上月私部門就業人數減少了3.2萬人。路透社調查的經濟學家先前預測，私部門就業人數將增加1萬人。
近日，由於市場猜測白宮經濟顧問凱文·哈塞特將在傑羅姆·鮑威爾5月任期結束後接任聯準會主席，並推動進一步降息，美元走弱。
Gold remains on the path to $4,000 as the US dollar weakens
Gold prices surged to a one-month high above $3,400 an ounce Thursday, supported by persistent U.S. dollar weakness. Analysts at Bank of America expect the rally to continue, maintaining their forecast that the yellow metal will hit $4,000 an ounce by the first half of 2026.
In a report published last week, the bank said falling interest rates and a weaker dollar will underpin the metal’s gains.
“Potential rate cuts amid increasing inflation create fertile ground for dollar depreciation,” analysts wrote. “Rate cuts in an environment of continued elevated inflation would, in all likelihood, push the precious metal higher.”
Spot gold last traded at $3,417.10 an ounce, up 0.64% on the day. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index last traded at 97.81 points, down 0.32% on the day.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as soon as September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders have nearly fully priced in a 25-basis-point move, with further easing possible in October and December.
“Recent US data have shifted our view on rates to the downside,” BofA said, pointing to softening labor market trends. “Recent cooling employment data, a narrowing in the breadth of employment growth & other signs of labor market moderation may support a shift the Fed's risk assessment.”
The bank added that political pressure on the Fed, including criticism from President Donald Trump, could weigh further on the dollar.
“Risks to Fed independence are well recognized, but the market now needs to contemplate the implications of institutional erosion at statistical agencies as well,” analysts said.
BofA warned that higher inflation could temporarily lift the dollar as markets scale back easing bets. Economists expect Friday’s core PCE index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—to show a 2.8% annual gain, unchanged from June.
However, Bank of America expects that any rally in the U.S. dollar will be sold.
“Should inflation data continue to come in on the sticky side, leading the Fed to push back more assertively on easing expectations, the USD could experience another relief rally, though we would view such an event as short-lived,” the analysts said.
