聯準會重新定價策略壓倒避險需求，黃金和白銀走弱
週一北美現貨市場收盤後，現貨黃金和白銀價格走低。油價上漲和美國公債殖利率走強，令交易員們更關注聯準會收緊貨幣政策的風險，而非美伊緊張局勢再度升級帶來的避險需求。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,015.60美元，下跌1.79%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司5,8180美元，下跌1.48%。
隨著中東局勢的直接衝擊逐漸消退，美國股市出現反彈。那斯達克指數上漲2.1%，道瓊指數收在52,000點上方，創下歷史新高。市場風險偏好受到以下因素的支持：美伊談判將重啟，霍爾木茲海峽的通行能力即便低於正常水平，也將持續維持。貴金屬價格並未跟隨股市上漲，黃金和白銀更多地被視為對利率敏感的資產，而非純粹的地緣政治對沖工具。
聯準會會議後的反應仍然是主要的部位約束。 6月17日，聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）以12比0的投票結果維持了3.50%至3.75%的目標區間不變，但6月份的預測將2026年聯邦基金利率的中位數從3月份的3.4%上調至3.8%，並將2026年個人消費支出（PCE）通膨預期上調至3.3%。週一的價格走勢延續了這項重新定價：10年期美國公債殖利率升至4.377%，2年期公債殖利率維持在4.10%以上，油價反彈也使得通膨風險對沖工具持續在利率市場流通。最終，黃金的避險需求依然存在，但其重要性不如聯準會的走勢。
霍爾木茲海峽目前的狀況最好被描述為通行受阻，而非完全關閉。在周四發生貨船遇襲事件和週六發生油輪事故後，週日通行量降至22艘次，這是自美伊簽署初步協議結束敵對行動以來最低的一天。美伊雙方同意於週日停止交火併恢復和平談判，但對於船東、租船人和船員而言，這條水道的通行仍然十分困難。市場對此反應不一：WTI原油結算價上漲2.2%，至每桶70.75美元；布蘭特原油上漲1.6%，至每桶73.15美元；而黃金價格下跌，因為油價波動加劇了通膨和聯準會升息的風險，而非促使避險資產佔據主導地位。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走高，結算價在每桶70.75美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶73.15美元。美元指數小幅走低。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.4%附近交易。
全球經濟仍牢牢地以美元為中心
國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟學家週五表示，美國總統唐納德·川普對大多數國家單方面加徵關稅後，全球貿易流動和關係正在發生變化，但美元仍然是國際貿易、銀行業和央行儲備的錨定因素。
即將離開國際貨幣基金組織並於下週重返教壇的皮埃爾-奧利維耶·古林沙在接受路透社採訪時表示，過去幾年黃金價格的急劇上漲主要是由黃金交易所交易基金的興起推動的，這些基金允許投資者購買黃金而無需持有實物黃金。
穩定幣發行方也持有黃金作為資產，這推高了需求和價格，但即使是中央銀行也沒有積極購買黃金。
「我們幾乎沒有看到任何跡象表明我們正在擺脫以美元為中心的世界。我們仍然牢牢地處於以美元為中心的世界之中，」他說。 「這並不意味著這種情況將來不會改變，但實際上，過去十年我們所看到的進展非常非常緩慢。”
週五，由於美元走軟，且前一日公佈的美國通膨數據顯示價格壓力可能已達峰值，市場對美國升息的預期略有緩解，黃金價格小幅走高。儘管如此，黃金價格仍有望連續第四周下跌。
現貨黃金在午後交易時段上漲約1.4%，至每盎司4,083美元。
週四聯準會公佈其首選的通膨指標後，美元從近期高點回落。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
