數據顯示美國經濟疲軟，金銀收復隔夜跌幅
週二美國午盤交易時段，黃金價格小幅上漲，白銀價格基本持穩。先前公佈的一系列經濟數據顯示，美國經濟既沒有過熱，也沒有過熱降溫。隔夜及美國經濟數據公佈前，金銀價格均走弱。數據公佈後，兩種金屬收復失地，小幅上漲。 2月黃金期貨最新上漲15.80美元，至每盎司4,350.70美元。 3月白銀期貨上漲0.056美元，至每盎司63.67美元。
美國11月非農業就業人數增加6.4萬人，此前10月則減少10.5萬人，加劇了近幾個月來美國勞動市場的波動。整體失業率升至4.6%，高於市場預期的4.5%，由於許多失業的美國人難以找到新工作，失業率持續攀升。週二公佈的另一份報告顯示，10月份美國零售銷售額幾乎沒有變化，汽車經銷商銷售額的下降和汽油收入的疲軟抵消了其他類別支出的成長。標普全球的數據顯示，12月份美國商業活動擴張速度為六個月來最慢，而衡量投入價格的指標則飆升至三年多來的最高水準。
今日主要外部市場方面，美元指數小幅走低。原油價格大幅下跌，觸及八個月低點，目前交易價格約每桶55.25美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前為4.16%。
從技術層面來看，2月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上行目標是突破合約/歷史高點4,433.00美元的強勁阻力位。
美國就業數據優於預期，美元兌主要貨幣走軟
週二，美元兌主要貨幣走軟，此前公佈的延遲經濟數據顯示就業成長強於預期，這表明聯準會在短期內可能對繼續降息持謹慎態度。
美國11月新增就業6.4萬個，超過路透社調查的經濟學家先前的預期。此前，根據美國勞工部的數據，10月美國經濟減少了10.5萬個就業機會。
由於美國聯邦政府停擺43天，就業報告延後發布。
數據公佈後，美元兌主要貨幣走軟。截至發稿時，美元兌瑞士法郎下跌0.18%，至0.79475。
「數據喜憂參半，招聘方面出現了一些好跡象，略好於預期，但好得並不大，」紐約銀行美洲外匯和宏觀策略師約翰·維利斯表示。
「我認為不利的一面是失業率從 4.4% 上升到 4.6%，這可能會在 1 月引起聯準會的關注，」韋斯利說。
根據芝加哥商品交易所集團的 FedWatch 工具顯示，聯邦基金期貨市場隱含的聯準會在 1 月 28 日的下次會議上維持利率不變的機率為 75.6%，高於一週前的近 70%。
「新增就業人數大多集中在醫療保健等非週期性行業，這表明週期性經濟活動並沒有大幅復甦。總體數據還算不錯，但具體數據並不理想。因此，市場將其視為一次碰運氣，或者說勉強持平，」維利斯補充道。
美元指數（衡量美元兌包括日圓和歐元在內的一籃子貨幣的匯率）下跌0.11%，至98.15。該指數可望連續第二個交易日下跌。
TS Lombard 分析師 Dario Perkins 在一份投資者報告中寫道：“這份報告並沒有真正改變現狀，尤其是考慮到美國勞工統計局 (BLS) 發出警告，稱最新數據點的可靠性甚至低於往常。”
「央行仍然認為貨幣政策略微緊縮，這使其在未來幾個月——甚至可能在一月——可以選擇再次降息。但目前的情況似乎並不特別緊急，」珀金斯補充道。
Gold remains on the path to $4,000 as the US dollar weakens
Gold prices surged to a one-month high above $3,400 an ounce Thursday, supported by persistent U.S. dollar weakness. Analysts at Bank of America expect the rally to continue, maintaining their forecast that the yellow metal will hit $4,000 an ounce by the first half of 2026.
In a report published last week, the bank said falling interest rates and a weaker dollar will underpin the metal’s gains.
“Potential rate cuts amid increasing inflation create fertile ground for dollar depreciation,” analysts wrote. “Rate cuts in an environment of continued elevated inflation would, in all likelihood, push the precious metal higher.”
Spot gold last traded at $3,417.10 an ounce, up 0.64% on the day. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index last traded at 97.81 points, down 0.32% on the day.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as soon as September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders have nearly fully priced in a 25-basis-point move, with further easing possible in October and December.
“Recent US data have shifted our view on rates to the downside,” BofA said, pointing to softening labor market trends. “Recent cooling employment data, a narrowing in the breadth of employment growth & other signs of labor market moderation may support a shift the Fed's risk assessment.”
The bank added that political pressure on the Fed, including criticism from President Donald Trump, could weigh further on the dollar.
“Risks to Fed independence are well recognized, but the market now needs to contemplate the implications of institutional erosion at statistical agencies as well,” analysts said.
BofA warned that higher inflation could temporarily lift the dollar as markets scale back easing bets. Economists expect Friday’s core PCE index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—to show a 2.8% annual gain, unchanged from June.
However, Bank of America expects that any rally in the U.S. dollar will be sold.
“Should inflation data continue to come in on the sticky side, leading the Fed to push back more assertively on easing expectations, the USD could experience another relief rally, though we would view such an event as short-lived,” the analysts said.
