黃金價格暴跌後，華爾街空頭雲集
由於持續的中東不確定性僅提供有限的避險支撐，加之美國強勁的勞動力數據、不斷上升的國債收益率以及美聯儲再次加息的擔憂，黃金價格在周五大幅下跌，經歷了又一個動蕩的一周。
現貨黃金本週開盤於週日晚間報每盎司4539.42美元，受伊朗局勢和霍爾木茲海峽局勢新不確定性的影響，金價一度短暫走高。但隨後有通報德黑蘭方面退出談判，推高了油價、美國公債殖利率和美元匯率，金價漲勢迅速放緩。週一，金價一度觸及每盎司4,545.55美元的周內高點，之後賣方佔據主導地位。
週二，受以色列與真主黨部分停火協議帶來的謹慎樂觀情緒提振，金價試圖企穩，但4月份JOLTS數據顯示職位空缺激增至760萬個，強化了美聯儲無理由放鬆貨幣政策的預期，金價反彈勢頭隨即跌破4550美元。週三，ADP就業數據顯示勞動市場狀況穩定，推高了對政策敏感的收益率，令金價承壓，走低。
週四，由於市場對地區局勢緩和以及霍爾木茲海峽重新開放的希望重燃，美國國債殖利率和美元走軟，金價一度獲得一些緩解。但週五公佈的強於預期的5月就業報告逆轉了這一趨勢，美國5月非農就業人數增加17.2萬人，升息擔憂再次升溫。受非農業數據影響，金價大幅下跌，並在周五下午觸及每盎司4311.93美元的周內低點，拋售加劇，直至收盤前僅小幅反彈。
美元攀升至兩個月高位
週一，美元徘徊在兩個月高位附近，此前一份強勁的美國就業報告促使交易員加大對美聯儲今年加息的押注，而日元則進一步在幹預區內徘徊。
由於澳洲市場因假期休市，早盤貨幣走勢較為平淡，但美元維持了先前公佈的強勁漲幅，該報告顯示上月非農就業人數增加了17.2萬人，遠超預期。
歐元兌美元匯率跌至兩個月低點 1.1507 美元，而英鎊兌美元匯率則跌至三週低點 1.33165 美元。
澳元和紐西蘭元也分別跌至兩個月來的最低點，分別為 0.7016 美元和 0.5779 美元。
「美國公佈的非農就業報告,描繪了一幅儘管能源價格持續受到衝擊，但美國勞動力市場仍在走強的景象，」凱投宏觀首席市場經濟學家喬納斯·戈爾特曼表示。
「上述因素使得聯準會今年稍後收緊貨幣政策的可能性越來越大,我們現在預計，為應對能源供應衝擊和美國勞動力市場的重新加速增長，聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）將在今年晚些時候兩次加息，每次加息25個基點。”
在就業報告發布之前，交易員們一直在逐步增加對聯準會今年升息的押注，因為與伊朗戰爭相關的全球能源危機有可能加劇通貨膨脹。
根據新聞媒體 Axios 報道，美國總統唐納德·川普週日表示，他將告訴以色列總理本雅明·內塔尼亞胡不要進行報復性打擊。此前，伊朗向以色列目標發射了一連串飛彈，以報復伊朗對貝魯特郊區的攻擊。
根據芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 的 FedWatch 工具顯示，市場目前預期聯準會在 12 月升息的可能性超過 70%，較一週前的 45% 機率大幅上升。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
