黃金和白銀等風險資產走強
週四下午美國交易時段，現貨黃金和白銀價格走高，原油價格走軟、美國國債收益率下降以及美元走軟支撐了貴金屬價格，市場正密切關注週五即將公佈的5月就業報告。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,477.70美元，上漲0.97%；現貨白銀交易價格為每盎司73.955美元，當日上漲1.66%。
截至5月30日當週，美國首次申請失業救濟人數增加1.3萬人，達22.5萬人；而截至5月23日當週，持續申請失業救濟人數減少8,000人，降至177.7萬人。這些數據進一步表明勞動力市場正在小幅放鬆，但不足以在周五公佈非農業數據之前平息聯準會的爭論。
霍爾木茲海峽仍然是影響黃金、石油、利率和股票風險的主要地緣政治通道。儘管布蘭特原油期貨價格持續低於每桶100美元，但由於通行受阻，原油風險溢價仍居高不下。目前美伊關係被視為一種可控的混亂局面，而非全面的供應衝擊：由於交易員押注美伊可能達成協議，油價回落；隨著通膨壓力降低，美國國債殖利率走低；除人工智慧相關科技股以外的股票受到追捧；黃金受益於降息管道，而非直接的避險需求。
美國股指期貨開盤前的拆股最終在收盤時演變為輪動交易。道瓊工業指數上漲874.86點，漲幅1.7%，收在創紀錄的51,561.93點；標普500指數上漲30.63點，漲幅0.4%，收在7,584.31點；那斯達克指數下跌30.63點，漲幅0.4%，收在7,584.31點；納斯達克綜合指數下跌23.02點，跌幅0.1%，跌幅60.96.羅素2000指數上漲41.81點，漲幅1.4%，收在2,935.33點，較低的借貸成本提振了小型公司的股價。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所原油價格走低，交易價格在每桶93.02美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶95.22美元。美元指數走軟。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.5%附近交易。
美元受海灣地區局勢動盪提振
週五，日圓試探160關口，引發日本官員的反對；與此同時，由於海灣地區的緊張局勢加劇了避險資金流入，美元有望實現週線上漲。
日圓兌美元匯率在早盤交易中一度跌至關鍵的160關口，儘管當局已發出口頭警告，但日圓仍連續第三個交易日觸及該水準。市場普遍認為，160關口是官方可能介入的分水嶺。
日本財務大臣片山五月週五表示，日本隨時準備對外匯市場做出適當反應，並保留對過度波動採取「果斷行動」的權利。
日圓目前已連續第四週下跌，這是自2月以來未曾出現的連跌，基本上抹去了過去一個月因幹預而獲得的漲幅，而乾預成本高達730億美元。
IG 市場分析師 Tony Sycamore 寫道：“關鍵問題仍然是，官員們是否願意繼續與巨大的宏觀逆風作鬥爭”，這些逆風包括能源價格高企、強勁的美國經濟數據和更高的收益率。
他表示，4 月下旬的干預措施只產生了短暫的影響，美元需要持續走弱於 155 以下才能對當前的上漲趨勢造成任何實質的損害。
日本政府週五公佈的數據顯示， 4月日本實質薪資年增1.9%，連續第四個月上漲。日本央行將於6月15日至16日進行下一次利率評估，該行認為薪資和物價的持續上漲是進一步升息的必要條件。
路透社引述消息人士的話稱，除非中東衝突急劇升級擾亂市場，否則日本央行預計將提高利率，因為能源衝擊導致燃料成本上漲，加劇了經濟中不斷增加的價格壓力。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
