華爾街對黃金的漲跌分化
在聯準會上週以超出預期的 50 個基點降息拉開了寬鬆週期後，貴金屬投資者本週接手了這一行動，創下了黃金的歷史新高。
週日晚間，現貨黃金本週開盤價為 2,620.93 美元，隨後於凌晨觸及近期三重頂至 2,630 美元/盎司。北美交易員本週伊始，金價回到 2,620 美元附近，到上午晚些時候，他們迅速將金價推至每盎司 2,634 美元。隨後輪到亞洲推動價格走勢，他們將現貨黃金隔夜推升至每盎司 2,638 美元的高點。
週三上午出現了本週最強勁的走勢，現貨黃金從東部時間上午 7:30 的 2,625 美元一路上漲至北美市場收盤前半小時每盎司 2,663 美元的歷史新高。截至晚上 9:00，現貨黃金交易價格為每盎司 2,670 美元，此後黃金價格穩定在 2,652 美元至 2,666 美元之間。
週四上午，黃金現貨市場在東部時間上午 8:00 之前交投於每盎司 2,685 美元上方，標誌著本週黃金的高點。此後，現貨黃金在2,660 美元的低點和2,677 美元的高點之間波動，直到週五上午股市開盤，一小時前8 月份核心PCE 數據低於預期，交易員將金價大幅推低至2,650 美元/盎司下方。
東部時間下午 2:00 後不久，現貨黃金跌至 2,645 美元低位，隨後在整個交易時段回升至每盎司 2,650 美元左右。
最新的Kitco News每週黃金調查顯示，行業專家在短期內進一步上漲和價格下跌之間保持平衡，而散戶投資者仍持積極態度，但對下週黃金的潛在漲幅更加克制。
Barchart.com 的高級市場分析師 Damrin Newsom 表示：“上漲。” 「將牛頓第一運動定律應用於市場：趨勢市場將保持這種趨勢，直到受到外部力量的影響。這種外部力量通常是投資者活動，鑑於全球混亂的可能性在下個月只會增加，投資者不太可能改變對黃金作為避險市場的看法。
盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank)大宗商品策略主管奧勒·漢森(Ole Hansen)表示：「我認為價格會走低，因為我相信漲勢是由FOMO情緒和利用衍生品追逐動能的交易商所引發的。 “短期內，在投資者適應這些新的更高的價格水平之前，實物需求可能會枯竭。”
漢森補充道：“反彈可能停滯的另一個原因可能是在中國，富裕的中產階級一直在以股市承壓和房地產價格下跌為代價購買黃金。” 「然而，刺激政策公佈後，恆生指數本週上漲了13%，而滬深300指數則上漲了接近17%。這些舉措是否會對消費者信心和房地產市場產生積極影響，從而導致人們不再關注黃金作為避險投資，還有待觀察。
「沒有變化，」阿德里安·戴資產管理公司總裁阿德里安·戴說。 “強勁上漲的暫停早該出現，而且可能會在美聯儲首次降息已經成為過去之後出現。”
隨著數據提振消退，美元下跌
在健康的美國經濟數據的提振消退後，週四美元在震盪交易中走軟，而瑞士央行降息25個基點後瑞士法郎上漲。
數據顯示美國每週申請失業救濟人數下降4,000 人，至四個月低點 218,000 人，低於路透社調查的經濟學家預測的 22.5 萬人，美元開始收窄跌幅。
其他報告顯示，第二季企業利潤成長速度比最初預期的更為強勁，而國內生產毛額成長未經修正的 3%。
儘管第三季企業設備支出似乎有所下降，但美國主要製造資本貨物的新訂單指標在 8 月意外上升。
FXStreet 高級分析師 Joseph Trevisani 表示：「聯準會降息與經濟成長基本上在 3% 或以上之間再次出現分歧，因此市場不太清楚如何看待這一情況。」
「那我們為什麼要降息呢？那麼，我們會失去什麼？這不會讓經濟變得更糟，它可能會讓經濟變得更好，而中性利率就在這以南的某個地方，所以讓我們轉身進入那個領域方向。
衡量美元兌日圓和歐元等一籃子貨幣的美元指數下跌0.42%，至100.52，繼當天稍早升至100.95後，預計在七個交易日中第六次下跌。歐元兌美元上漲0.41%至1.1178美元。
聯準會最近表示將重點從通膨轉向維持勞動市場健康，但上週降息幅度超出平常 50 個基點。
根據芝加哥商品交易所集團的FedWatch 工具，市場完全消化了聯準會 11 月 6 日至 7 日會議上至少降息 25 個基點的預期，再次大幅降息半個百分點的可能性為 51.3%，開啟新分頁。
瑞士央行降息25個基點，呼應聯準會和歐洲央行(ECB)的舉措，並為隨著通膨進一步降息留出空間，美元兌瑞郎下跌0.55%至0.846
高盛分析師表示，瑞士央行降息的原因是瑞郎走強和其他因素推動通膨壓力下降，鑑於其鴿派指導和新的通膨預測，他們預計央行12月會議將進一步降息25個基點。
Gold price could hit $2,700 by mid-2025, silver will outperform gold
Gold has been one of the best-performing assets of 2024, climbing to new record highs on multiple occasions amid a backdrop of deteriorating economic conditions and non-stop debt printing, and according to one bank, the rally is expected to continue with the prospect of lower interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions.
“Gold reached an all-time high of USD 2,607/oz earlier this month, rising more than 25% year to date,” noted analysts at UBS. “It's not just the expectations of lower yields at play, with further support from macro and geopolitical uncertainties, and the continuing trend of USD diversification by central banks.”
They said that geopolitical tensions are likely to “extend well beyond the fourth quarter, with the next US government (and its policies) uncertain” while also highlighting that “significant unresolved conflicts centered in both Ukraine and Gaza possessing no obvious catalyst to end.”
“We expect gold to remain a favored market hedge for both geopolitical and rate risks,” they said. “Historically, the metal has outperformed equities during periods of elevated volatility, which again proved to be the case in recent months despite a less dovish market consensus on the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts ahead.”
The analysts said that, in their view, “This rally could go further,” giving a price target of $2,700/oz by mid-2025.
“Alongside the near-term risk drivers, we anticipate greater gold ETF demand to gather pace in the coming months,” they said. “According to the official gold ETF data published by the World Gold Council, physically-backed gold ETFs rose in August to mark the fourth consecutive month of inflows. Total holdings have rebounded to nearly 3,182 metric tons, the highest since the start of the year, narrowing the year-to-date loss to 44 metric tons.”
“We recommend that a diversified USD-denominated portfolio should include a 5% allocation to gold as a broad portfolio hedge,” the analysts said.
While gold has served its role as a store of value, silver has lagged the yellow metal, they noted.
“The well-followed gold-silver ratio signaling the pair’s relative value rose back above 85x after hitting lows of around 73x in late May,” they highlighted. “Weakness across base metals and wider commodities likely acted as a drag, while China solar exports and domestic installations also showed signs of weakness recently.”
“Despite this, we maintain our view that silver is set to benefit from a rising gold price environment, which is aligned with Fed policy easing,” they said. “Our expectation that the silver market will remain in deficit over the coming years implies continuous declines in above-ground inventories, which should help fundamentally underpin prices as well as act as a tailwind for investor interest.”
“We see silver outperforming gold over 12 months, with the potential for its ratio to test the long-term average of just below 70x,” the analysts said.
As far as the platinum group of metals, they noted that “Prospects of greater rate cuts by the Fed have given the platinum group metal (PGM) prices a bit of a lift as of late,” before noting that “PGM prices have been lacking a clear directional trade this year.”
“While market surplus considerations should remain a burden for palladium prices, platinum’s apparent market deficit suggest that prices are likely to move higher,” they said. “Production cost aspects also favor higher prices, especially platinum, with PGM production basket prices trading more than 20% into the cost curve for South African miners. Headwinds come from a softer vehicle market and weaker industrial application demand.”
“In summary, the PGMs lend themselves for volatility selling strategies,” they concluded.
In the near term, TradingView analyst Xanrox said that gold could climb above $2,800 as the yellow metal “has started its historical uptrend.”
