“黃金是一種高貝塔係數資產”
黃金曾經是抵禦市場回調的良好對沖工具，但現在情況已不再如此。布魯金斯學會高級研究員、國際金融協會前首席經濟學家、高盛首席外匯策略師 Robin Brooks 表示，黃金現在屬於高貝塔資產，實際上會放大而不是緩解市場拋售。
布魯克斯在一份新的分析報告中指出，黃金市場正在發生一些不好的事情。
他寫道：「黃金歷來被視為避險資產，這意味著當其他資產暴跌時，黃金是躲避風險的好去處。但在過去六週的動盪中，情況並非如此。黃金下跌了10%，遠超標普500指數不到1%的跌幅。如果在市場拋售幅度時，你的反賣幅度超過標普500指數不到1%的跌幅。如果在市場拋開時，你的反賣
“黃金的表現就像一種高貝塔係數資產，會加劇拋售。”
布魯克斯概述了試圖解釋黃金價格走勢的各種理論。 「第一種理論認為，新興市場國家的央行在最近的衝擊期間拋售了黃金儲備，但這實際上只適用於土耳其。土耳其的黃金儲備減少了128噸，以調動外匯儲備來捍衛里拉，」他說。 「土耳其在這方面是個例外。它堅持將里拉與美元掛鉤，迫使其央行在遭遇嚴重衝擊時拋售外匯儲備，而大多數其他新興市場國家早已放棄了這種做法，而且這樣做是有充分理由的。”
「第二點是，過去一年黃金價格的大幅上漲——也就是所謂的『貶值交易』——吸引了大量新買家，而這些買家往往更加膽怯，一旦遭遇衝擊就容易拋售，」他表示。 「這無疑可以解釋為什麼近幾週黃金的交易表現類似於高貝塔係數資產。如果情況確實如此——我認為確實如此——那麼‘貶值交易’的擁躉遲早會被淘汰，黃金也將回歸其作為避險資產的本質。”
美元走勢穩定
美元走勢基本上穩定，投資者權衡了美國封鎖霍爾木茲海峽伊朗船隻帶來的供應風險，以及華盛頓和德黑蘭之間繼續對話可能取得突破的前景。
美元指數（衡量美元兌包括日圓和歐元在內的一籃子貨幣的匯率）上漲 0.04% 至 98.38，歐元兌美元上漲 0.03% 至 1.1761 美元。
日圓兌美元上漲0.08%，至1美元兌159.3日圓。英鎊兌美元上漲0.03%，至1美元兌1.3508美元。
三菱日聯銀行分析師川上輝正（Terumasa Kawakami）在一份報告中表示：“人們預期談判將繼續進行，這有助於遏制金融市場情緒的惡化。”
美國總統川普表示，美軍週一開始封鎖離開伊朗港口的船隻，而德黑蘭則威脅稱，在周末於巴基斯坦舉行的結束戰爭的會談破裂後，將對海灣鄰國的港口進行報復。
路透社報道稱，儘管週末在伊斯蘭堡舉行的會晤氣氛緊張，但華盛頓和德黑蘭之間的談判仍在繼續。川普週一表示，伊朗已與美方聯繫並希望達成協議；美國副總統萬斯在接受採訪時表示，美國期待伊朗在開放霍爾木茲海峽方面取得進展。
澳洲聯邦銀行貨幣策略師卡羅爾·孔在一份報告中表示，封鎖將考驗上週達成的脆弱停火協議的持久性，如果停火協議破裂，美元可能會再次走強。
美國原油期貨在亞洲早盤交易下跌超過2美元，至每桶96.99美元。
同時，日本央行本月升息的可能性（一度被認為很大）已經降低，因為結束伊朗戰爭的希望逐漸破滅，導致市場波動，經濟前景不明朗。
根據東京經濟新聞的數據，週一的利率互換顯示，日本央行本月升息的可能性為40%，低於上週五的57%。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
