受伊朗核協議預期提振，黃金上漲，白銀下跌
週五收盤後，現貨黃金價格上漲，現貨白銀價格下跌。原油價格月月大幅下跌緩解了通膨壓力，而美元走強則令白銀承壓。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,539.30美元，上漲0.97%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司75.275美元，下跌0.51%。
4月個人所得基本持平，可支配個人所得下降0.1%，個人消費支出成長0.5%，儲蓄率降至2.6%。個人消費支出物價指數（PCE）較去年同期上漲3.8%，而5月芝加哥採購經理人指數（PMI）從49.2躍升至62.7，高於市場普遍預期的50.5。這些數據組合導致利率訊號不均衡：消費者支出仍然強勁，通膨率遠高於目標水平，區域製造業成長勢頭有所改善，而油價下跌和國債收益率保持穩定則緩解了金屬價格的短期壓力。
霍爾木茲海峽仍然是影響能源、通膨預期和貴金屬價格的主要地緣政治傳導通道，但週五的市場交易更多地圍繞著海峽重新開放的前景，而非局勢再次升級。由於交易員們正在消化美伊可能達成的協議，該協議可能將停火延長60天，並逐步恢復海峽航運，原油價格錄得2020年以來最大單月跌幅。 WTI原油結算價接近每桶87.36美元，布蘭特原油接近每桶92.05美元，兩大基準原油5月均大幅下跌。
對黃金而言，影響喜憂參半：油價下跌和通膨風險降低支撐了無收益資產的利率環境，但衝突風險的降低削弱了避險需求。在其他市場，最顯著的影響體現在原油價格下跌、美國股市收盤創紀錄、美國公債殖利率保持穩定以及美元走強。
美國股市收高，標普500指數上漲0.2%，收在7580.06點，連續第七個交易日上漲，連續第九週上漲。道瓊工業指數上漲0.7%，收在51032.46點；那斯達克指數上漲0.2%，收在26972.62點；羅素2000指數下跌0.6%，收在2919.34點。科技股領漲，戴爾科技財報發布後股價飆漲32.8%。布蘭特原油價格下跌1.7%，有助於緩解本月稍早抑制市場風險偏好的通膨衝擊。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走低，結算價約每桶87.36美元，布蘭特原油價格結算價接近每桶92.05美元。美元指數走強。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.4%附近交易。
美元企穩，市場等待有關伊朗戰爭和各國央行的訊號
美元週一在經歷了一周的下跌後保持穩定，市場正等待中東和平談判的結果以及各國央行升息時機的信號。
上週，由於市場寄望美國和伊朗達成協議，開放霍爾木茲海峽的石油運輸航道，美元指數小幅走低。
美國總統川普週五表示，他將很快就一項延長伊朗停火協議的提議做出決定。
本週稍後公佈的美國就業數據將成為焦點，因為聯準會官員暗示，如果戰爭加上劇本已高企的通貨膨脹，美國央行可能需要提高利率。
澳洲聯邦銀行外匯主管約瑟夫·卡普索表示：“美元將受到美伊戰爭進展和美國5月份非農就業報告的嚴重影響。”
他在一份報告中補充說：“一旦海峽重新開放，隨著時間的推移，油價將會下降，利率將再次對美元產生更大的影響。”
美元指數（美元兌包括日圓和歐元在內的一籃子貨幣）持平於99.00，此前一周該指數下跌了0.4%。歐元兌美元下跌0.08%，至1.165美元。
日圓兌美元下跌0.08%，至159.41日圓；英鎊兌美元下跌0.07%，至1.3449美元。
一項擬議的協議將把美伊停火延長 60 天，並允許恢復通過這條水道的交通。在正常情況下，這條水道是全球五分之一原油和液化天然氣運輸的通道。與此同時，談判人員正在努力解決一些有爭議的問題。
一位伊朗高級消息人士告訴路透社，雙方已接近達成協議，但尚未獲得批准。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
