金價飆升反映美元疲軟和貿易緊張局勢
受多種宏觀經濟因素共同推動貴金屬需求上漲的影響，黃金市場經歷了一個多月以來的最強表現。近月黃金期貨合約收盤上漲1.5%，至每金衡盎司3,401.90美元，現貨價格飆升至3,390美元上方，達到自6月中旬以來的最高水準。
黃金上漲的主要催化劑是美元大幅走弱，主要貨幣對均大幅下跌。洲際交易所（ICE）美元指數下跌0.62點至97.86，為以美元計價的大宗商品提供了基本面支撐。美元走弱的同時，美國公債殖利率也普遍回落，兩年期美國公債殖利率下跌2.6個基點至3.854%，基準10年期美國公債殖利率下跌5.7個基點至4.366%。
美元疲軟和收益率下降的雙重因素為黃金創造了理想的市場環境，當有息替代品的吸引力下降時，黃金受益於機會成本的降低。隨著美國與其主要貿易夥伴之間貿易緊張局勢的升級加劇了市場不確定性，避險需求進一步放大了黃金的走勢。
美國商務部長霍華德·盧特尼克（Howard Lutnick）最近的聲明為正在進行的貿易談判增添了緊迫感。盧特尼克對與歐盟達成協議表示樂觀，但他強調，8月1日的關稅截止日期對談判而言是一個「硬性截止日期」。他重申，美國政府將在整個談判過程中維持10%的基準關稅，這凸顯了美國政府對其貿易政策框架的承諾。
此前，川普總統已於本月初正式通知主要貿易夥伴，詳細說明了在談判不成功的情況下將生效的具體關稅稅率。鑑於達成互惠互利貿易協定的前景似乎日益不確定，歐盟已準備好針對美國潛在關稅的反制措施。
貨幣政策預期持續演變，加劇了市場的不確定性。交易員目前預計聯準會9月降息的可能性約為60%，這反映出人們對央行領導層可能發生變化以及更廣泛的機構改革的猜測日益增多。利率預期的鴿派轉變導緻美元走弱和美國公債殖利率下降，這兩者都是支撐金價的因素。
美元走勢猶豫不決
美元在本周初短暫下跌之後，週二在窄幅區間內交易，因為投資者在 8 月 1 日與美國達成協議的最後期限之前關注貿易談判是否取得進展，否則將面臨高額關稅。
受週末日本參議院選舉結果不比已經反映在價格中的更差的影響，日元基本上守住了前一交易日的漲幅，目前的焦點轉向了東京能多快與華盛頓達成貿易協議，以及首相石破茂的未來。
日圓兌美元匯率在周一受大選結果影響上漲 1% 後，亞洲早盤小幅下跌至 147.65。
石破茂及其執政聯盟遭遇的慘敗也並未引起日本股市的太大反應，因為日本股市上一交易日剛結束假期。
三菱日聯金融集團高級貨幣分析師李·哈德曼表示，“執政聯盟沒有失去更多席位，而且石破茂首相計劃繼續掌權，這給日元帶來了初步緩解，但這種緩解可能不會持續太久。”
日本政治不確定性的加劇可能會使與美國及時達成貿易協議變得複雜，從而對日本經濟和日圓造成下行風險。
距離 8 月 1 日關稅截止日期僅剩一周多一點的時間，美國財政部長斯科特·貝森特 (Scott Bessent) 週一表示，政府更關心貿易協定的質量，而不是其時機。
當被問及是否可以延長與華盛頓進行富有成效談判的國家的最後期限時，貝森特表示，唐納德·川普總統將做出決定。
全球關稅最終狀態的不確定性一直是外匯市場的一大隱患，即使華爾街股市創下新高，貨幣交易仍大部分處於窄幅區間。
麥格理集團全球外匯和利率策略師蒂埃里·維茲曼 (Thierry Wizman) 表示：“只要美國政府仍然願意談判，8 月 1 日發生的任何事情都不一定是永久性的，正如川普兩週前的信中所表明的那樣。”
美元在前一交易日下跌，部分原因是日圓上漲以及美國公債殖利率下降，最後維持穩定，英鎊兌美元匯率下跌 0.03%，至 1.3488 美元。
歐元下跌 0.12% 至 1.1684 美元，市場也關注本週稍後歐洲央行的利率決定，預計政策制定者將維持利率不變。
Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index
Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”
Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.
Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”
