黃金價格保持穩定，而白銀價格開始下跌
週四交易時段，黃金展現出顯著的韌性，從盤中低點4415美元反彈至4487美元收盤，上漲20.80美元。這次反彈凸顯了黃金在歷史高點附近保持穩定的能力，即便整體市場動態顯示未來存在更多不確定性。
然而，白銀期貨在整個交易時段面臨更大的壓力，下跌1.30美元，跌幅1.67%，收在每盎司76.89美元。在早盤交易中，白銀一度觸及每盎司73.52美元的低點，隨後小幅反彈直至收盤。兩種貴金屬表現的分化凸顯了投資者情緒的轉變以及各自市場中不同的基本面驅動因素。
由於彭博商品指數（BCOM）將於1月9日至15日進行年度再平衡，未來幾天這兩種貴金屬的價格波動可能會加劇。此次再平衡旨在透過根據前一年的流動性和生產數據調整成分股權重，確保該指數能夠準確反映當前全球大宗商品市場狀況。
從歷史經驗來看，BCOM指數的再平衡週期往往會引發交易活躍度的提升和暫時的價格波動，因為被動型基金和演算法交易者會調整部位以適應新的指數組成。市場參與者應做好準備，以應對可能擴大的買賣價差和更大的日內價格波動。任何與再平衡相關的價格波動幅度，都將取決於黃金和白銀在指數結構中的權重變化幅度。
市場參與者將密切關注週五公佈的美國非農就業數據，以從中尋找可能影響聯準會決策的進一步貨幣政策訊號。週三公佈的經濟數據顯示，美國11月份職缺降至14個月以來的最低水平，為770萬個，低於預期的780萬個。招募活動依然低迷，顯示勞動力需求疲軟，這可能為進一步放鬆貨幣政策提供基礎。
就業情勢疲軟為貴金屬投資者帶來了複雜的市場環境。雖然疲軟的就業數據通常會透過提升市場對利率下行的預期來支撐黃金價格，但鑑於聯準會目前的政策立場和持續的通膨擔憂，這種關係變得更加微妙。意外疲軟的非農業就業數據可能會重新激發對黃金的避險需求，而強於預期的數據則可能引發大宗商品市場的獲利回吐。
美元走勢平穩
週三，由於市場對本週即將公佈的幾項美國勞動力市場數據進行調整，美元兌日圓和歐元等主要貨幣保持穩定。
美國勞工部數據顯示，11月份美國職缺數量下降幅度超出預期，招募活動也放緩，顯示勞動力需求持續疲軟。
更全面、更受關注的非農就業報告將於週五公佈。
美元兌瑞士法郎小漲0.24%，至0.797；兌日圓小幅上漲0.08%，至156.75。
「目前美元的價格走勢更多的是戰術性的，因為如果沒有明確的政策更新，通常情況下美元的走勢將會出現回調，」Monex Canada 的高級選擇權交易員 Olivier Bellemare 表示。
“市場關注的焦點將集中在本週末公佈的就業數據上，原因是市場仍在尋找通膨跡象，將其作為判斷美元兌其他主要貨幣走勢方向的更可靠指標。”
週三油價下跌，此前美國總統川普的政府表示，已說服委內瑞拉將石油供應從北京轉移出去，中國譴責美國是霸凌者。
衡量美元兌包括日圓和歐元在內的一籃子貨幣的美元指數上漲0.07%，至98.68。
歐元在前一日下跌後小幅走低，原因是德國12月份通膨降幅超出預期，促使交易員略微減少了對2027年初升息的預期。
自去年夏天以來，市場一直預期政策利率在 2026 年之前保持穩定，同時預計隨著德國財政刺激措施帶來的通膨壓力不斷增加，歐洲央行將在 2027 年收緊政策。
歐元下跌0.04%，至1.1682美元，此前週二下跌0.28%。
此外，交易員們也關注到：中國週二禁止向日本出口可用於軍事用途的兩用物項，這是北京對日本首相高市早苗11月初關於台灣的言論的最新回應。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
