投資人風險偏好情緒高漲，金價仍回落
黃金期貨價格連續第二週下跌，8 月合約下跌 56.20 美元（-1.68%），截至美國東部時間下午 3:35，報收於 3,285.10 美元。本週跌幅更為劇烈，五天期間期貨價格下跌近 3%（-2.92%），跌幅達 98.90 美元。
儘管傳統上利好黃金的因素匯聚一堂，但金價仍出現下跌。這種脫節表明市場動態發生了根本性轉變，黃金未能對支撐性條件做出反應，表明地緣政治風險溢價的蒸發速度可能比預期更快——尤其是在以色列與伊朗達成停火協議之後。
美國經濟分析局（Bureau of Economic Analysis，簡稱BEA）週五公佈的經濟數據顯示，5月份個人消費支出（PCE）指數（美聯儲（Federal Reserve）首選的通膨指標）年增2.3%，高於4月的2.1%，與FactSet的普遍預期一致。更令人擔憂的是，剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格的核心PCE指數從2.5%躍升至2.7%，超過了2.6%的普遍預期。
儘管通膨率上升，債券市場和利率期貨的反應卻有限。目前的市場定價反映出，7月聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)降息的可能性僅為20%，而9月這一機率將升至75%。一些交易員甚至在兩次會議上都進行了降息的佈局，儘管通膨數據不容樂觀，但仍維持著貨幣寬鬆的預期。
或許最能說明問題的是，黃金未能利用近期美元疲軟的利多。洲際交易所（ICE）美元指數本週下跌1.32%，為以美元計價的商品提供了強勁的利多。美元疲軟和降息預期——歷史上黃金最可靠的兩大驅動因素——的結合，最終證明不足以支撐金價。
這表明，隨著投資者轉向成長資產，傳統的避險需求正在讓位給風險偏好情緒。從股市表現來看，這種轉變特別明顯，那斯達克指數和標準普爾500指數均創下歷史新高。
川普重燃貿易擔憂，美元上漲
美國總統唐納德·川普表示，美國將結束與加拿大的貿易談判，並表示將考慮再次轟炸伊朗，這削弱了風險偏好並導致股市下跌，美元兌歐元週五收復了早些時候的跌幅。
ForexLive 首席貨幣分析師 Adam Button 表示：“綜合起來，這兩個訊息凸顯了川普的反复無常，以及市場上建立的任何假設都可能立即被推翻。”
「人們本能地想買美元，但一旦硝煙散去，這種想法很可能會再次出現。貿易戰全年都在拖累美元，」巴頓說。
美國財政部長貝森特週五稍早表示，川普政府與其他國家的各項貿易協定可能在 9 月 1 日勞動節假期前完成。
然而，在川普表示美國將立即終止與加拿大的貿易談判，以回應加拿大對科技公司徵收數位服務稅後，加幣當日延續跌勢。加幣兌美元最新下跌0.5%，至1美元兌1.37加幣。
川普也嚴厲批評了伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊，放棄了解除對伊朗制裁的計劃，並表示如果伊朗鈾濃縮活動達到令人擔憂的水平，他將考慮再次轟炸伊朗。
由於一些美國數據顯示經濟正在走弱，交易員們押注聯準會將比先前預期更多、更早降息，美元兌歐元週五稍早跌至三年半低點。
週五發布的報告顯示，美國 5 月消費者支出意外下降，原因是關稅上調前搶購汽車等商品的提振作用消退，而月度通膨率漲幅仍保持溫和。
週四發布的每週就業報告顯示，持續申請失業救濟人數升至2021年11月以來的最高水平，而第一季國內生產毛額數據反映出消費者支出大幅下降。
芝加哥 DRW Trading 策略師 Lou Brien 表示：“過去幾天我們得到的一些數據並不是特別好。”
聯準會主席鮑威爾本週在美國國會發表的證詞被解讀為鴿派，因為他指出，如果今年夏天通膨沒有像他預期的那樣上升，聯準會就有可能降息。
有報導稱，美國總統唐納德·川普也可能在未來幾個月任命鮑威爾的繼任者，這加劇了美元的疲軟。
Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index
Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”
Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.
Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”
