隨著殖利率和美元走強，黃金4,500美元是關鍵支撐位
本周初金價表現出一定的上漲勢頭，但隨著時間的推移，金價持續走低，每一次上漲都受到通膨數據走高、收益率上升和美元走強的製約，而地緣政治風險提供的支撐也十分有限。
現貨黃金本週開盤價為每盎司 4,687.50 美元，但隨著交易員將注意力從避險需求轉向持續的通膨、不斷上升的國債收益率和走強的美元，市場迅速走低。
隔夜金價一度跌至每盎司4,650美元的低點後，在北美交易時段伊始便強勁反彈，並在周一晚間8點前觸及週內高點，突破每盎司4768美元。然而，金屬市場的樂觀情緒曇花一現，金價在接下來的幾個交易日苦苦掙扎，難以守住每盎司4,700美元的關口。
週二，美國4月CPI上漲0.6%，年增3.8%，市場對聯準會寬鬆政策的預期降低，現貨黃金價格因此跌至每盎司4,700美元附近，這是金價首次出現重大波動。
週三，由於4月生產者物價指數上漲1.4%，拋售壓力加劇，金價跌至接近每盎司4,680美元的盤中低點，交易員將PPI數據視為通膨壓力擴大的另一個跡象。
週四，隨著零售銷售額成長0.5%，失業救濟申請人數增至21.1萬人，黃金價格試圖穩定，但由於美元持續連續四天上漲，市場關注川普與習近平會晤以尋求新的地緣政治方向，這種緩解作用有限。
週五，現貨黃金價格大幅下跌，跌破每盎司4,600美元，債券殖利率飆升，10年期美國公債殖利率升至4.54%，美元進一步走強。這次拋售潮正值中東局勢持續緊張、原油價格維持在每桶100美元上方之際，交易員們關注伊朗戰爭帶來的通膨影響以及聯準會可能長期維持高利率的風險。現貨黃金在北美開盤時觸及週內低點每盎司4,511美元，週末前交易價格接近每盎司4,543美元。
亞洲股市下跌，油價上漲對債券市場帶來壓力
週一，亞洲股市下跌，海灣地區新的無人機襲擊推高了油價和債券收益率，而人工智慧熱潮將在本週受到科技巨頭英偉達財報的考驗。
無人機襲擊導致阿聯酋一座核電廠起火，與此同時，沙烏地阿拉伯報告攔截了三架無人機，美國總統川普警告伊朗必須「迅速」採取行動達成協議。
同時，至關重要的霍爾木茲海峽仍然對除少量船隻外的所有船隻關閉，德黑蘭正試圖正式控制這條曾經承載著全球 20% 石油貿易的水道。
「油井關閉正在迅速消耗全球石油庫存，」凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的分析師警告。 “到6月底，庫存可能達到臨界水平，這將使布蘭特原油價格達到每桶130-140美元，甚至更高。”
「如果海峽關閉到年底，油價在2027年保持在每桶150美元左右，這將推高英國和歐元區的通膨率至接近10%，使利率回升至近期高位，並導致全球經濟衰退。”
布蘭特原油價格上漲 1.2%，至每桶 110.63 美元，美國原油價格上漲 1.0%，至每桶 106.42 美元。
七國集團財長週一在巴黎齊聚一堂，討論霍爾木茲海峽和關鍵原材料供應問題，儘管地緣政治分歧有可能考驗該集團的凝聚力。
由於擔心能源成本將居高不下並持續推高通膨，全球債券市場週五遭受重創。
美國 10 年期公債殖利率升至 4.584%，上週上漲了 23 個基點；30 年期公債殖利率在上週上漲 18 個基點後，達到 5.109%。
投資人反過來擔心全球各國央行將不得不收緊貨幣政策以阻止通膨螺旋式上升，而聯準會今年升息的可能性目前被認為有五成。
聯準會上次會議紀錄將於週三公佈，紀要將顯示委員會面臨多大的壓力，要求轉向中性立場，放棄寬鬆傾向。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
