黃金價格突破4,690美元，油價暴跌
週三北美交易時段尾盤，現貨黃金價格大幅上漲，現貨白銀價格也強勁走強。受弱於預期的美國勞動市場數據、疲軟的油價以及地緣政治不確定性再度升溫的影響，市場對貴金屬的避險需求得到支撐。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,694.05美元，上漲2.77%；現貨白銀交易價格為每盎司77.350美元，當日上漲約6.23% 。
美國經濟數據對金價構成支撐。 ADP數據顯示， 4月私部門就業人數增加10.9萬人，低於市場普遍預期的11.8萬人，但高於3月修正後的6.1萬人。這項數據強化了市場對勞動市場成長動能在周五非農就業報告公佈前降溫的預期。週一強勁的工廠訂單數據以及週二喜憂參半的ISM服務業和JOLTS報告，促使交易員重新調整對聯準會利率路徑的預期。
政策敏感型市場在美股交易時段走強。 ADP就業數據不如預期後，美國公債殖利率走低；同時，由於交易員預期聯準會今年稍晚將進一步放寬貨幣政策，美元指數也出現疲軟。此外，有報告指出華盛頓和德黑蘭即將就重啟波斯灣油輪航行達成框架協議，這將降低原油價格中隱含的部分地緣政治風險溢價，油價也因此大幅回落。
儘管就業數據疲軟，北美股市仍強勁收高，油價下跌和戰爭擔憂緩解提振了市場風險偏好。標普500指數上漲1.5%，收在創紀錄的7,365.12點；道瓊工業指數上漲1.2%，收在49910.59點；那斯達克指數上漲2.0%，收25838.94點；羅素2000指數上漲1.5%，收在2886.7點。納斯達克、標普500和道瓊指數的上漲均得益於市場對伊朗達成更廣泛的停火協議的預期升溫，以及大型科技股的持續走強。
午後，地緣政治新聞依然瞬息萬變。據媒體報道，美國中央司令部稱，已在阿曼灣伊朗港口附近擊沉一艘試圖突破封鎖的油輪。同時，交易員們繼續評估達成更廣泛的外交框架以穩定區域能源流動的可能性。油價下跌和持續的地緣政治不確定性共同推動股市和貴金屬價格同步上漲，這種跨資產組合的走勢雖然不常見，但並非史無前例。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格大幅下跌，交易價格在每桶95.33美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶102美元。美元指數走弱。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.3%附近交易。
美元走勢或將維持區間震盪，取決於霍爾木茲海峽局勢
一項調查顯示，外匯策略師表示，美國和以色列與伊朗之間的戰爭局勢將在短期內左右美元走勢。他們仍然堅持認為，美元將在今年晚些時候走弱之前保持區間震盪。
迄今為止，美元走勢基本上跟隨戰爭的步伐，局勢升級的消息傳出時美元走高，緊張局勢緩和時美元走低。在第一個月，由於空頭回補和部分避險需求，美元上漲了約3%，但此後已回吐了大部分漲幅。
這場始於 2 月 28 日的衝突引發了國際能源總署所稱的有史以來最嚴重的能源危機，布蘭特原油價格比戰前水準高出近 40%，導致通膨風險持續存在，並對美元起到了一定的支撐作用。
聯準會上週的會議如預期般維持利率不變，但內部意見分歧的委員會暗示可能會長期暫停升息。利率期貨市場已從預期多次降息轉向預期維持利率不變，甚至認為年底前升息的可能性微乎其微。
儘管如此，路透社5月1日至6日的調查顯示，外匯預測專家對大幅調整預測持謹慎態度。預測中位數與戰爭爆發前的2月份相比幾乎沒有變化，這表明他們傾向於觀望衝突的進展，並淡化其嚴重性。
匯豐銀行全球外匯研究主管保羅·麥克爾表示：“未來幾個月，美元很可能將維持在相對區間震蕩的走勢。一方面，美元會出現短暫的緩和走軟跡象；另一方面，市場環境依然充滿挑戰，這又讓美元佔據了優勢。”
麥克爾表示，美元走勢主要受戰爭引發投資者情緒波動的影響，「而且這很可能仍將是主導因素」。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
