黃金、白銀價格因例行獲利回吐而下跌
受近期強勁上漲的影響，金銀價格小幅走低，短期期貨交易者獲利回吐是正常趨勢。隔夜白銀期貨價格創下歷史新高，黃金價格也觸及三週高點。本週技術買盤佔據主導，金銀短期技術形態均呈現強勁看漲態勢。 12月黃金期貨最新下跌5.90美元，每盎司4,207.70美元；12月白銀期貨下跌0.437美元，報每盎司53.02美元。
本週白銀價格上漲約12%。供應方面的擔憂也推高了白銀價格，印度的婚禮季節正值高峰，加上市場擔心美國可能對白銀徵收關稅。上週，美國內政部將白銀、銅和冶金煤列入關鍵礦產清單，凸顯了它們對美國經濟和國家安全的重要性。
美國總統川普昨晚簽署法案，結束了美國史上持續時間最長的政府停擺，標誌著長達43天的政府停擺正式結束。川普的簽署意味著政府可以開始恢復正常運作，聯邦員工預計今天將重返工作崗位。然而，自10月1日停工以來，聯邦僱員完全恢復工作並處理積壓的工作可能仍需數天甚至數週時間。
今日主要外部市場方面，美元指數大幅走低。原油價格走強，交易價格約59美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前約4.07%。
從技術層面來看，12月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上行目標是突破4,398美元的歷史高點強勁阻力。
美元下跌
美元週五難以收復大幅失地，並有望錄得周線跌幅，投資者正等待美國政府重新開放後積壓的一系列經濟數據，他們預計這些數據可能表明美國經濟疲軟。
美元隔夜走低的同時，美國股市和債券也遭到拋售，這與4月的市場動盪驚人地相似，當時投資人減少了對聯準會12月降息的押注。
「空氣中似乎又瀰漫著一絲『拋售美國』的氣息，」澳洲國民銀行外匯研究主管雷·阿特里爾表示。
然而，市場預期聯準會將採取更鷹派的立場，但美元並未因此走強，隔夜美元兌歐元跌至兩週低點。歐元隨後反彈至1.16美元上方，最新報1.1630美元。
瑞士法郎同樣維持在三週多高點附近，穩定在兌美元0.7933。美元兌一籃子貨幣則徘徊在兩週低點附近，報99.27。
美元指數本週將下跌0.3%。
「從下週開始，我們將獲得大量來自美國的經濟數據，我們認為情況會相當糟糕。我認為市場目前正在為即將到來的大量糟糕的美國經濟數據做準備，」澳洲聯邦銀行外匯、國際和地緣經濟主管約瑟夫·卡普索表示。
雖然這通常會加劇人們對聯準會採取更激進的寬鬆政策以支撐疲軟經濟的預期，但卡普索表示，即將公佈的零散數據或許可以解釋為什麼聯邦基金期貨出現了相反的走勢。
白宮表示，由於10月的美國失業率取決於一項家庭調查，而這項調查在政府停擺期間並未進行，因此數據可能永遠無法公佈。
「當你身處霧中時，你會開得更慢當你不知道經濟狀況如何時，也許你會放慢削減開支的速度，」卡普索說。
儘管投資人認為12月降息25個基點的可能性不到50%，但1月降息的可能性幾乎已被市場完全消化。對2026年利率的預期也幾乎沒有變化。
以其他貨幣計，英鎊下跌 0.3% 至 1.3152 美元，未能維持隔夜兌美元 0.45% 的漲幅。
Gold remains on the path to $4,000 as the US dollar weakens
Gold prices surged to a one-month high above $3,400 an ounce Thursday, supported by persistent U.S. dollar weakness. Analysts at Bank of America expect the rally to continue, maintaining their forecast that the yellow metal will hit $4,000 an ounce by the first half of 2026.
In a report published last week, the bank said falling interest rates and a weaker dollar will underpin the metal’s gains.
“Potential rate cuts amid increasing inflation create fertile ground for dollar depreciation,” analysts wrote. “Rate cuts in an environment of continued elevated inflation would, in all likelihood, push the precious metal higher.”
Spot gold last traded at $3,417.10 an ounce, up 0.64% on the day. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index last traded at 97.81 points, down 0.32% on the day.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as soon as September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders have nearly fully priced in a 25-basis-point move, with further easing possible in October and December.
“Recent US data have shifted our view on rates to the downside,” BofA said, pointing to softening labor market trends. “Recent cooling employment data, a narrowing in the breadth of employment growth & other signs of labor market moderation may support a shift the Fed's risk assessment.”
The bank added that political pressure on the Fed, including criticism from President Donald Trump, could weigh further on the dollar.
“Risks to Fed independence are well recognized, but the market now needs to contemplate the implications of institutional erosion at statistical agencies as well,” analysts said.
BofA warned that higher inflation could temporarily lift the dollar as markets scale back easing bets. Economists expect Friday’s core PCE index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—to show a 2.8% annual gain, unchanged from June.
However, Bank of America expects that any rally in the U.S. dollar will be sold.
“Should inflation data continue to come in on the sticky side, leading the Fed to push back more assertively on easing expectations, the USD could experience another relief rally, though we would view such an event as short-lived,” the analysts said.
