各國央行正用其資產負債表投票支持黃金
行動勝於雄辯。這句老生常談的格言，應該成為今年下半年黃金市場的主旋律之一。
上個月，兩項央行調查傳遞出明確的訊息。世界黃金協會發現，創紀錄的45%的央行預計將在未來12個月內增加黃金儲備；而OMFIF的年度調查顯示，在全球金融體係日益分散的背景下，儲備管理者在實現投資組合多元化的過程中，仍將黃金列為首選儲備資產之一。
然而，調查結果只能反映政策制定者的意圖。此後發生的事情，更加印證了這個觀點。
最新的儲備數據顯示，央行並非僅僅表達對黃金的信心——他們正在將這種信心付諸行動。
世界黃金協會報告稱，5月各國央行淨增黃金儲備41噸，延續了多年來主權需求強勁的趨勢。隨後，隨著金價在6月延續回調，一些市場上最大的官方買家變得更加活躍。
中國央行增持黃金儲備15噸，連續第20個月增持，創下今年以來單月增持幅度新高。
波蘭的增持力度更大。波蘭國家銀行計劃在2026年上半年增持82噸黃金，行長亞當·格拉平斯基公開承認，央行一直在利用金價下跌的機會增持黃金儲備。
這一點值得關注，因為它與散戶投資者的情緒形成了鮮明對比。投機交易者紛紛拋售黃金，轉而尋求人工智慧股票的上漲動力，而投資者則因機會成本上升而拋售了黃金持股。
中東地區攻擊事件再起，美元應聲上漲
由於中東衝突再度升級加劇了通膨擔憂，以及各國央行升息的可能性增加，美元兌大多數主要貨幣大幅上漲。
美元兌日圓上漲0.1%，至161.92日圓。歐元兌美元下跌0.1%，至1.1403美元，英鎊兌美元下跌0.1%，至1.3383美元。
週末，美伊軍隊互相發動猛烈的飛彈和無人機攻擊。週日，德黑蘭襲擊了海灣各國的美國設施，並聲稱再次封鎖了至關重要的霍爾木茲海峽。
隨著亞洲市場恢復交易，油價上漲，布蘭特原油期貨上漲3.3%，至每桶78.49美元。
「上週末市場情緒持續高漲，美元隨後做出反應，原油價格是主要驅動因素，」IG駐雪梨市場分析師托尼·西卡莫爾表示。 “這再次引發了人們的擔憂，如果能源價格繼續上漲，我們可能會看到加息提前。”
交易員們略微傾向於聯準會在年底前升息兩次。
根據芝加哥商品交易所集團的 FedWatch 工具顯示，聯邦基金期貨隱含的到聯準會 12 月會議召開時升息兩次或兩次以上的機率為 52.1%，而上週五的機率為 47.6%。
衡量美元兌一籃子六種貨幣強弱的美元指數穩定在 101.07，此前該指數在周五收盤時一度上漲 0.2%，達到 7 月 8 日以來的最高水平。
西太平洋銀行分析師在一份研究報告中寫道，未來一周，通膨風險可能仍將是關注焦點，因為週二將公佈美國消費者物價指數（CPI）數據，第二天將公佈生產者物價指數（PPI），聯準會主席凱文沃什也將在眾議院和參議院作證。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
