聯準會政策轉變推動金價持續飆升
貴金屬市場近幾日經歷了非凡的飆升，近月黃金期貨價格再創歷史新高，收於每金衡盎司3,688.90美元，創下歷史新高。 0.2%的溫和漲幅卻意義非凡，標誌著金價連續第三個交易日創下歷史新高，凸顯了黃金在當前經濟環境下的強勁成長動能。
黃金持續上漲的動能正值市場參與者提前佈局聯準會降息之際。歷史上，聯準會降息的貨幣政策轉變對黃金等非收益資產有利。黃金近期的表現反映出，投資者對黃金作為通膨對沖工具和貨幣寬鬆時期避險資產的信心日益增強。
美國銀行分析師表示，當前的經濟狀況為黃金升值提供了特別有利的條件。該投資銀行強調，人們對滯脹（一種以通貨膨脹和經濟停滯同時出現為特徵的具有挑戰性的經濟情景）的持續擔憂是貴金屬需求的關鍵驅動因素。這種宏觀經濟背景通常會創造一種環境，使黃金的內在價值主張對機構投資者和散戶投資者都越來越有吸引力。
8月消費者物價指數（CPI）2.9%的漲幅為黃金上漲提供了額外的基本面支撐，進一步佐證了這個看漲觀點。美國銀行的研究揭示了一個令人信服的歷史先例：自2001年以來，在美國通膨率超過2%且聯準會同時採取寬鬆貨幣政策立場的時期，黃金價格從未出現過下跌。
從不同的時間段來看，黃金近期表現的幅度更加引人注目。從2024年9月17日觸及的52週最低點2,564.30美元/盎司，金價已飆升43.86%，彰顯了黃金在有利的市場環境下具備大幅升值的能力。年比數據也反映了同樣的百分比增幅，凸顯了過去12個月金價持續上漲的動能。
美國殖利率在聯準會會議紀要公佈前下跌
週二，在市場普遍預期聯準會開始降息週期之前，全球股市指數創下歷史新高，隨後在震盪交易中小幅走高，而美國國債收益率和美元則下跌。
MSCI 所有國家指數(.MIWD00000PUS)，開啟新分頁盤中小漲0.04%，一度飆升至978.74點，創下歷史新高。華爾街股市回吐早盤漲幅，收盤走低，其中公用事業和房地產板塊跌幅最大，而能源和非必需消費品板塊領漲。
道瓊工業平均指數（.DJI），開啟新分頁標普 500 指數(.SPX)下跌 0.27%，至 45,757.90 點，開啟新分頁下跌 0.13% 至 6,606.76 點，那斯達克指數(.IXIC)，開啟新分頁下跌0.07%至22,333.96。
泛歐斯托克 600 指數(.STOXX)，開啟新分頁下跌1.14%，其中金融、房地產和工業股領跌。
「今天的走勢更像是橫盤整理，」Nationwide首席市場策略師馬克·哈克特（Mark Hackett）表示。 “感覺就像昨天股市小幅上漲，今天又小幅回調。但實際上，這一切都只是在等著看明天下午會發生什麼。”
預計聯準會將在周三貨幣政策會議結束時將基準利率下調四分之一個百分點至4.00%-4.25%區間。
米蘭（Stephen Miran）於週二上午宣誓就任美聯儲理事，此前美國參議院在美聯儲政策會議前以微弱優勢批准他加入美聯儲理事會。美國上訴法院也駁回了唐納德·川普總統解僱聯準會理事麗莎·庫克（Lisa Cook）的申請。
基準美國10年期公債殖利率下跌0.6個基點，至4.028%。通常與聯準會利率預期同步變動的兩年期公債殖利率下跌2.6個基點，至3.51%。
「過去幾週的走勢確實令人難以置信：過去六週中有五週都呈現正增長……幾乎全線創下新高。對我來說，這只是一個停頓和橫向觀望的走勢，而不是大幅下跌，」哈克特說。
對聯準會降息的押注反過來又給美元帶來壓力，美元兌一籃子貨幣週二跌至 7 月 4 日以來的最低水平。
美元兌日圓下跌0.64%，至146.45，兌瑞士法郎下跌1.04%，至0.786。
Gold remains on the path to $4,000 as the US dollar weakens
Gold prices surged to a one-month high above $3,400 an ounce Thursday, supported by persistent U.S. dollar weakness. Analysts at Bank of America expect the rally to continue, maintaining their forecast that the yellow metal will hit $4,000 an ounce by the first half of 2026.
In a report published last week, the bank said falling interest rates and a weaker dollar will underpin the metal’s gains.
“Potential rate cuts amid increasing inflation create fertile ground for dollar depreciation,” analysts wrote. “Rate cuts in an environment of continued elevated inflation would, in all likelihood, push the precious metal higher.”
Spot gold last traded at $3,417.10 an ounce, up 0.64% on the day. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index last traded at 97.81 points, down 0.32% on the day.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as soon as September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders have nearly fully priced in a 25-basis-point move, with further easing possible in October and December.
“Recent US data have shifted our view on rates to the downside,” BofA said, pointing to softening labor market trends. “Recent cooling employment data, a narrowing in the breadth of employment growth & other signs of labor market moderation may support a shift the Fed's risk assessment.”
The bank added that political pressure on the Fed, including criticism from President Donald Trump, could weigh further on the dollar.
“Risks to Fed independence are well recognized, but the market now needs to contemplate the implications of institutional erosion at statistical agencies as well,” analysts said.
BofA warned that higher inflation could temporarily lift the dollar as markets scale back easing bets. Economists expect Friday’s core PCE index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—to show a 2.8% annual gain, unchanged from June.
However, Bank of America expects that any rally in the U.S. dollar will be sold.
“Should inflation data continue to come in on the sticky side, leading the Fed to push back more assertively on easing expectations, the USD could experience another relief rally, though we would view such an event as short-lived,” the analysts said.
