黃金和白銀走強，但聯準會升息風險抑制貴金屬價格上漲
週一收盤後，現貨黃金和白銀價格走高，原因是受美伊談判重啟消息提振，原油價格下跌；同時，美聯儲會議後，美國國債收益率上升和美元走強繼續對貴金屬構成壓力。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,190.60美元，上漲1.21%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司65.21美元，當日上漲0.47%。
聯準會會議後的部位調整仍是金屬價格的主要限制因素。聯準會6月會議維持利率不變，但市場仍在消化寬鬆政策傾向轉向年底可能升息的預期。 10年期美國公債殖利率從週四晚間的4.46%上升至4.50%，交易員認為聯準會年底前至少升息一次的可能性接近90%，高於一週前的57%。這種重新定價限制了黃金的後續上漲空間，並使白銀在美元走強和短期國債殖利率走高時面臨風險。
華盛頓和德黑蘭週末的會談為美國副總統萬斯所稱的「最終協議的成功奠定了良好基礎」奠定了基礎，而伊朗軍方週六表示已再次封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，美國中央司令部對此說法予以否認。目前市場受到的影響略微抑制了通膨，但波動依然劇烈：布蘭特原油下跌3.2%至每桶77.52美元，美國原油下跌2.6%至每桶73.86美元，股市漲跌互現，但由於伊朗戰爭帶來的通膨衝擊仍在推高聯準會升息預期，美國公債殖利率上升。黃金受益於油價下跌和地緣政治不確定性的持續存在，但不足以抵消利率波動的影響；白銀價格走強，但仍易受工業風險偏好減弱的影響。
美國股市漲跌互現，油價下跌支撐週期性板塊，大型科技股拖累大盤。標普500指數下跌27.79點，跌幅0.4%，收在7472.79點；道瓊工業指數上漲148.01點，漲幅0.3%，收在51712.71點；那斯達克指數下跌351.33點，跌幅1.3%，收在26166.60點；羅素2000指數上漲24.64點，漲幅0.8%，收在3004.40點。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走低，交易價格在每桶73.86美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶77.52美元。美元指數走強。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.5%附近交易。
日本的外匯訊號令市場對日圓幹預風險保持警覺
週一，日本金融當局並未發出明確信號，讓市場對其可能採取的匯率幹預措施感到困惑，這表明其溝通策略可能正在轉變。
日本財務大臣片山五月週一表示，東京“將隨時對匯率波動做出適當反應”，這與日圓匯率無關，當局經常使用這一措辭。
日圓兌美元匯率回落至161.7，略低於上週觸及的兩年低點。若跌破161.96，將創下1986年以來的最低水準。
市場也等待日本首席貨幣政策顧問三村敦是否會發表意見。與定期召開記者會的片山健治不同，三村敦發言較少。因此，市場將他的言論視為更深思熟慮的政策訊號。
自5月初以來，三村一直保持沉默。此前不久，日本政府近兩年來首次拋售美元以支撐日圓匯率。就在拋售美元的幾個小時前，他表示「採取果斷行動」的時機即將到來，並補充說這是對市場的「最後警告」。
兩名政府消息人士稱，他的警告仍然有效，並強調了突然幹預的可能性。
分析人士表示，在三村公開傳遞訊息，讓投機者提前平倉日圓空頭頭寸，削弱了乾預措施的影響之後，政府可能正在有意調整其溝通方式。
三菱日聯摩根士丹利證券外匯策略師柳翔太表示：“一些投機者可能設法逃脫了損失，因此下一次幹預可能會盡可能地出其不意。”
官員的言論中沒有絲毫緊迫感，市場可能會傾向於壓低日圓匯率，但他補充說，「對於可能的干預，各方保持著高度謹慎」。
美國商品期貨交易委員會週一公佈的數據顯示，日圓投機性淨空部位小幅上升至1,50132份合約，為2024年7月以來的最高水準。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
