受油價和殖利率下滑拖累，金價逼近4000美元
週三收盤後，現貨黃金和白銀價格大幅下跌，5月份通膨報告、高企的美國國債收益率以及美伊關係再度升級等因素抑制了剩餘的避險需求。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,078美元，下跌4.26%；現貨白銀交易價格為每盎司6,3,605美元，下跌2.66%。
美國5月消費者物價指數（CPI）較上月上漲0.5%，較去年同期上漲4.2%；核心CPI季增0.2%，較去年同期上漲2.9%。能源價格年增23.5%，其中汽油價格上漲40.5%，通膨壓力仍與中東供應風險直接相關。這些數據符合市場預期，但也使得聯準會幾乎沒有空間來驗證先前支撐金價的降息策略。
霍爾木茲海峽仍是影響黃金、石油、利率和風險資產的主要地緣政治傳導通道，但最新的美伊局勢首先引發的是通膨衝擊，其次才是避險衝擊。美國軍方擊沉了另一艘被指控運輸伊朗石油的油輪，川普總統表示可能發動更多攻擊，而與伊朗有關的報復行動也使得海灣航運風險居高不下。美國能源資訊署（EIA）的最新預測仍然認為，霍爾木茲海峽將持續關閉至初夏，並在第三季緩慢恢復通行。當前市場受到的影響是直接的：原油價格上漲，美國國債殖利率堅挺，股市下跌，而黃金未能獲得持久的避險需求，因為通膨和實際利率管道主導了地緣政治需求。
美國股市連續第二個交易日下跌，人工智慧相關股票領跌。標普500指數下跌1.6%，道瓊工業指數下跌1.9%，那斯達克指數下跌2.0%。超微電腦公司宣布計劃透過股票發行籌集70億美元後，股價暴跌23.1%；英偉達股價下跌3.4%；美光科技股價下跌4.7%。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走高，交易價格在每桶88.97美元左右，布蘭特原油價格接近每桶92.29美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在尾盤走高，目前尚未公佈美元指數（DXY）的確認水準。
美元在美國空襲伊朗後企穩
週三，在美國對伊朗發動空襲後，美元兌主要貨幣保持穩定，投資者正等待關鍵的美國通膨數據，以尋找聯準會政策路徑的線索。
週二，美國總統川普稱德黑蘭在霍爾木茲海峽擊落了一架美國阿帕奇直升機後，美國軍方對伊朗發動了空襲。此舉令兩國和平前景蒙上陰影，並進一步加劇了脆弱的停火協議的緊張局勢。然而，川普淡化了這起直升機事件，他告訴《華爾街日報》，“這沒什麼大不了的”，並強調“飛行員安然無恙”。
儘管發生了此類事件，並且週末停火協議失效，但澳洲聯邦銀行經濟學家哈里·奧特利在一份報告中表示，「我們仍然認為戰爭正走在降級的道路上」。
美元指數（衡量美元兌包括日圓和歐元在內的一籃子貨幣的匯率）小幅上漲0.01%，至100.02。
歐元兌美元下跌0.05%，至1.1537美元；英鎊兌美元下跌0.04%，至1.337美元。
與其他國家相比，美國經濟被認為相對不易受到能源衝擊的影響，這一因素在伊朗戰爭期間支撐了美元的避險需求，同時對歐元和日圓構成壓力。
同時，日本央行在6月16日政策會議上升息的可能性幾乎已被市場完全消化，這意味著即使升息真的發生，也不太可能引發日圓大幅走弱。
IG市場分析師托尼·西卡莫爾在一份報告中指出：「日本央行行長上田一夫需要發表一些鷹派言論，暗示央行可能將下一次加息從12月提前至9月，甚至有可能在年底前進行第三次加息。否則，如果沒有這些或類似的舉措，日本財政部可能不得不再次動用支票簿來捍衛日元。」
日圓兌美元下跌0.03%，至1美元兌160.38日圓，繼續在160附近徘徊，該水準被廣泛視為官方可能介入的分界線。
週三公佈的數據顯示，日本5月的批發價格年增6.3%，超出預期，凸顯了中東衝突帶來的日益增長的價格壓力。
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
