中美貿易談判期間黃金市場大幅逆轉
週一，由於中美兩國外交關係發展對貴金屬定價造成相互衝突的壓力，黃金市場呈現劇烈波動。開盤時，澳洲、香港和倫敦等主要海外市場的金價均下跌，8月交割期貨價格一度下跌26.60美元，至每盎司3,320.00美元。儘管美元同時下跌，金價仍出現早盤走弱，形成了反常的市場態勢，反映出投資人對世界兩大經濟體重啟貿易對話的樂觀情緒日益高漲。
這項外交舉措的核心是美國財政部長斯科特貝森特與中國國務院副總理何立峰在倫敦舉行的高層會晤。兩國正致力於鞏固上個月達成的協議，該協議規定對雙邊進口產品暫停徵收90天以上超過100%的關稅。這次談判的啟動最初削弱了黃金作為傳統避險資產的吸引力，因為金融市場將此次外交接觸解讀為朝著解決經濟不確定性邁出的建設性一步，而經濟不確定性在近幾個月支撐了貴金屬價格的上漲。
推動這些緊急談判的潛在經濟壓力，在中國不斷惡化的貿易數據中清晰可見。路透社通報稱，5月中國出口成長降至三個月以來的最低點，而同期對美出口則暴跌34.5%，創下2020年2月以來的最大月降幅。這種急劇的萎縮凸顯了兩國因長期貿易爭端而面臨的日益沉重的經濟成本，也凸顯了當前外交努力取得突破性進展的至關重要性。
中美談判成為焦點，美元走軟
美元兌大多數主要貨幣週一走弱，窄幅波動，因市場參與者鞏固了上週五好於預期的美國就業報告帶來的漲幅，並將注意力轉向在倫敦舉行的關鍵中美貿易談判。
兩國高層官員此次會晤旨在解決圍繞上個月在日內瓦達成的一項初步協議的分歧，短暫緩解世界兩大經濟體之間的緊張局勢。談判可能持續最多兩天。
這次會談對雙方來說都處於關鍵時刻，中國正努力應對通貨緊縮，貿易不確定性抑制了美國企業和消費者的情緒，促使投資者重新評估美元的避險地位。
海關數據顯示，由於美國關稅導致出口大幅下滑，中國5月出口增速降至三個月低點，同時工廠出廠通貨緊縮創下兩年來最嚴重水準。 5月份，中國對美出口額較去年同期暴跌34.5%，為2020年2月新冠疫情爆發、全球貿易遭遇重創以來的最大降幅。
午後交易中，美元兌日圓下跌約0.2%，至144.55日圓，先前連續兩週上漲。
兩位直接了解該計畫的消息人士週一表示，日本正在考慮回購部分過去以低利率發行的超長期政府債券，強調其致力於控制債券殖利率的突然上升。
多倫多 Corpay 首席市場策略師卡爾·沙莫塔 (Karl Schamotta) 表示，“美元正在回落，動能正在減弱,給交易區間和隱含波動率指標帶來下行壓力。”
“投資者認為，中美貿易談判帶來的積極消息已基本反映在主要貨幣對的價格中，預計週三的通膨數據將較為疲軟，甚至週四的 30 年期美國國債拍賣也將受到投資者的強勁需求。”
與此同時，歐元兌美元上漲 0.3%，至 1.1427 美元，因為市場繼續消化歐洲央行上週發布的貨幣政策展望，該展望表明其寬鬆週期可能即將結束。
Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index
Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”
Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.
Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”
