受伊朗局勢不確定性影響，黃金價格穩定
週二收盤後，現貨黃金價格基本上持穩，現貨白銀價格走低，美元走強和原油價格走高抵消了美國國債收益率下降帶來的支撐。截至發稿時，現貨黃金交易價格接近每盎司4,488.30美元，上漲0.07%；現貨白銀交易價格接近每盎司75.195美元，當日上漲0.44%。
4月份職缺數從3月的690萬個增至760萬個，為2024年5月以來的最高水平，高於市場普遍預期的680萬個。裁員人數下降，離職人數減少，招聘人數也出現下滑，在周五公佈5月份就業報告之前，勞動力市場訊號喜憂參半。現有數據支持勞動力需求尚未崩潰的觀點，但離職和招聘人數的減少表明雇主和求職者都持謹慎態度。
霍爾木茲海峽仍然是影響石油、通膨預期和貴金屬價格的主要地緣政治傳導通道。由於美伊就重新開放海峽的談判仍未取得進展，油價收高，交易員仍在權衡來自華盛頓和德黑蘭的相互矛盾的信號。市場預測本月達成永久和平協議並全面重新開放海峽的機率已從5月下旬的高點回落，而早前的油輪數據顯示，目前僅有4艘油輪通過該海峽，而戰前日均通行量接近130艘。
目前對黃金 的影響是雙重的：霍爾木茲海峽危機風險懸而未決，支撐了避險情緒；但原油價格上漲和美元走強限制了金價的上漲空間。在其他市場方面，原油、成品油、航運風險、美國國債久期、美元以及能源相關股票的走勢依然最為明朗。
美國股市收高，標普500指數上漲9.82點，漲幅0.1%，收在7609.78點；那斯達克指數上漲7.09點，漲幅不到0.1%，收在27093.90點，均創下歷史新高。道瓊工業指數上漲228.91點，漲幅0.4%，收在51307.79點；羅素2000指數上漲26.20點，漲幅0.9%，收在2931.96點。儘管油價上漲、美元走強，但人工智慧相關半導體產業的強勁表現仍提振了市場情緒。
主要外部市場方面，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格走高，結算價約每桶93.76美元，布蘭特原油價格結算價接近每桶96.00美元。美元指數走強。基準10年期美國公債殖利率在4.5%附近交易。
美元走勢穩定
週二，美元穩定，市場對中東和平談判採取觀望態度。黎巴嫩宣布真主黨和以色列之間達成有限停火協議，但更廣泛的地緣政治不確定性令交易員感到不安。
鑑於4月初美伊停火協議的脆弱性，投資人對結束伊朗衝突的任何進展都持謹慎態度。
衡量美元兌六種主要貨幣的美元指數在黎巴嫩週一宣布協議後，從早盤的漲幅中回落。儘管該協議表明局勢有所緩和，但在更廣泛的地區衝突背景下，其作用仍然有限，這場衝突已經擾亂了霍爾木茲海峽的石油運輸。
澳洲聯邦銀行高級貨幣策略師克里斯蒂娜·克利夫頓在一份報告中寫道：“我們預計美國和伊朗將在本周某個時候同意逐步重新開放霍爾木茲海峽，並將停火延長60天，以便就伊朗的鈾濃縮問題進行談判。”
“戰爭結束的利好消息將對美元構成壓力，因為美元是避險貨幣。”
美元指數持平於 99.17，歐元兌美元上漲 0.03% 至 1.1634 美元，英鎊兌美元上漲 0.07% 至 1.346 美元。
衝突爆發之初（2月28日），美元曾經一度走強，主要得益於避險需求以及美國經濟受能源價格上漲引發的通膨影響相對較小。然而，由於衝突走向的不確定性，美元已回吐了部分漲幅。
日本財務大臣片山五月週二表示，當局已做好準備，根據需要對外匯市場做出反應，並拒絕就近期的匯率波動發表評論。
片山發表演說後，日圓兌美元下跌0.02%，至1美元兌159.66日圓，市場普遍認為160關口是介入的觸發點。
瑞穗證券首席貨幣策略師山本正文表示：“如果美元/日元突破160，突破4月30日高點的風險將顯著增加，從而可能出現更強烈的口頭警告，並引發新一輪的利率檢查或實際幹預。”
Gold’s bull run is set to continue in 2026, and crypto’s weakness could boost silver higher
While Bitcoin, AI and the tech sector are likely to take a step back in 2026, gold’s bull run still has legs – and crypto’s weakness could add to silver’s strength, according to Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree.
ByteTree created the BOLD Index, which blends Bitcoin and gold on a risk-weighted basis, and the 21Shares BOLD ETP (BOLD) which tracks the index is listed across Europe. The theory behind the BOLD index is that gold and Bitcoin are uncorrelated alternative assets, so balancing between them is very advantageous.
Morris is very bullish on both Bitcoin and gold over the long term. Five years ago – well before the current bull market had even begun – he predicted that the yellow metal would hit $7,000 per ounce by 2030. This was an extreme outlier at the time, but with gold prices gaining around $2,500 in the five years since, it looks less outlandish by the day.
“Generally speaking, I don't make projections, but I did in 2020 make that projection,” Morris told Kitco News. “It's not looking so stupid now.”
“It's all worked for the wrong reasons, which is hilarious,” he said. “And maybe the [original] reasons come true later, but my simple thesis was that long-term expectations for inflation rose in the Western world, from 2% to about 4%, and the money printing would see lasting inflation.”
Morris said markets have since seen monetary inflation, but not yet sustained consumer inflation. Still, he believes this will materialize eventually. “It just seems so inevitable with these persistent deficits that at some point it will come through,” he said. “I just don't see how you can come into this world full of money and for it not to feed through eventually, particularly with policymakers so focused these days on the real economy. As money finds its way into the real economy, then that's got to be inflationary sooner or later.”
