金屬價格測試支撐
本週黃金價格大幅下跌，原因是不斷上升的國債收益率、走強的美元以及聯準會再次升息的預期，壓倒了避險需求，即使週五疲軟的非農就業報告也未能帶來持續的提振。
現貨黃金本週首日晚間開盤報每盎司4,277.90美元，週一短暫上漲並觸及週內高點每盎司4,280.56美元，隨後賣方佔據主導地位。受美伊衝突影響，油價上漲加劇了通膨擔憂，而長期國債殖利率上升和美元走強則抑制了對無收益資產的需求，導致金價加速下跌。
週二，受美國就業市場開放資料降溫和消費者信心減弱的提振，黃金價格試圖企穩，但由於市場持續消化聯準會再次升息的風險，反彈幅度有限。週三，美元維持在近兩個月高點附近，美國公債殖利率也居高不下，現貨金價被壓制在近期波動區間的下限附近，拋售潮再次襲來。
週四金價僅獲得有限支撐，隨後跌至每盎司4,110.95美元的周內低點，交易員們在9月就業報告公佈前紛紛調整部位。週五公佈的非農就業數據為黃金帶來了本週首個實質性利好，美國經濟僅新增2.9萬個就業崗位，失業率升至4.2%，7月和8月的非農就業數據均向下修正，降低了美聯儲10月加息的可能性，並打壓美元和收益率走低。
但現貨黃金未能守住 4,200 美元上方，週五交易繼續進行，金價大幅下跌，最終收盤價僅比周末前的盤中低點高出 15 美元。
Kitco News 最新發布的每週黃金調查顯示，華爾街正處於看跌多數派的邊緣，而普通民眾則放棄了自 7 月底以來一直保持的看漲傾向。
Bannockburn Global Forex董事總經理馬克錢德勒表示：「我預計下週黃金價格將走高。聯準會領導層，包括聯準會副主席傑佛遜和聯邦公開市場委員會副主席威廉，在10月升息問題上比市場更有耐心，而令人失望的美國就業報告更是強化了這一預期。
聯準會計劃提高銀行監管門檻
四位知情人士透露，聯準會正在製定一項計劃，提高觸發對大型銀行更嚴格監管的資產門檻，這將使一些貸款機構能夠避免代價高昂的額外監管，並可能刺激銀行業整合。
知情人士透露，聯準會預計很快就會提議重新調整銀行資產負債表、流動性、資本和其他更嚴格規則的壓力測試門檻，以反映通膨和經濟成長的影響。其中三位知情人士表示，他們預計聯準會將在今年稍後提出這些調整。
現行規定對資產規模達到1000億美元、2500億美元和7000億美元的銀行施加更嚴格的要求。貸款機構表示，這些2019年設定的門檻未能跟上經濟發展的步伐，導致銀行面臨日益嚴格的監管，而這些監管措施實際上超過了銀行所構成的風險。
銀行表示，要突破 1000 億美元的門檻，通常需要對合規人員、風險管理系統、壓力測試能力和監管報告基礎設施進行大量投資，這些投資每年可能高達數千萬美元。
知情人士透露，聯準會正在考慮將最高門檻調整至接近 1 兆美元，並將較低門檻觸發的一些要求調整至接近 1,500 億美元。由於討論的是敏感的監管問題，這些知情人士拒絕透露姓名。
有望從中受益的銀行包括美國合眾銀行（USB.N）。開啟新分頁Capital One (COF.N)開啟新分頁PNC金融集團（PNC.N）開啟新分頁以及 Truist (TFC.N)開啟新分頁這些公司最接近 7,000 億美元的門檻，因此它們有更大的成長空間，而不會受到聯準會一些最嚴格的監管，包括新的資本規則和向監管機構提交每日報告的要求。
西部聯盟（WAL.N）開啟新分頁錫安(ZION.O)開啟新分頁同時，其他幾家公司也可能在無需滿足目前該類別貸款機構所受到的所有限制的情況下，實現超過1000億美元的規模。 Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP.N)開啟新分頁而其他一兩家資產規模在 1,000 億美元至 1,500 億美元之間的貸款機構甚至可能會放寬一些要求。
聯準會發言人拒絕置評。今年1月，聯準會負責監管的副主席米歇爾·鮑曼表示，聯準會將考慮重新調整指標，並建議使用名目GDP，但此後聯準會未對此發表評論。
Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally
Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.
The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.
The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.
North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.
European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.
