2025/4/24

黃金新聞

市場擔憂緩解，金價下跌3%

由於大量獲利回吐引發了五年來最大規模的貴金屬拋售，金價難以守住 3,200 美元的支撐位。不過，一些分析師表示，考慮到今年和過去 12 個月油價大幅上漲，這項調整併不令人意外。
由於市場繼續消化唐納德·川普總統關於中美貿易戰的軟化言論以及他想要解僱美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的轉變，黃金價格週三下跌超過 3%。

儘管黃金正經歷大規模獲利回吐，但分析師強調，長期多頭趨勢基本上保持不變。現貨黃金最新交易價格為每盎司 3,281.94 美元，當日下跌近 3%。目前價格較週二的 3,500 美元高點下跌了 6% 以上。儘管如此，今年迄今金價仍上漲逾 25%，過去 12 個月上漲近 41%。
StoneX Group 市場分析師 Fawad Razaqzada 在周三的一份報告中表示：「就黃金前景而言，儘管過去幾天黃金價格下跌了不少，但與之前的漲幅相比，這只不過是滄海一粟。」連續兩天的大幅回調意味著金價目前已較為顯著的趨勢下跌6.8%，觸及約3,260美元的低點下跌——這是一個顯著的趨勢。然而，長期趨勢仍明顯看漲。
展望未來，拉扎克扎達表示，對 3,100 美元支撐位的測試將促使他重新評估黃金的上漲趨勢。
他說：「如果我們開始創下更低的低點和更低的高點，長期技術前景只會轉為負面。」考慮到這一點，請關注2956美元的水平，這是金價突破歷史新高前最近的一次重要低點。只要該水準保持不變，任何短期回檔都應謹慎對待，並應將其視為潛在的買入機會，而非看跌訊號。然而，如果跌破該水平，那麼放棄看漲傾向將是明智之舉——至少在短期內是如此。

Trade Nation 資深市場分析師 David Morrison 指出，即使金價達到 3,300 美元，根據動量指標，金價在技術上仍然超買，可能需要更深層的回檔來重塑市場情緒。
「我們也有可能看到更大幅度的回調，3000美元將成為一個更重要的支撐位。這樣的走勢可能會淘汰弱勢的投資者，尤其是反彈的後期參與者。如果3000美元的支撐位得以守住，讓日線MACD重置，金價可能會再次上漲至新高。但現在還為時過早，回調的形態過早，回調的形態至關重要。
川普總統宣布降低對中國進口產品徵收的145%的關稅，緩解了部分市場擔憂。他週二還表示，他「無意」解僱鮑威爾，鮑威爾的任期將於 2026 年結束。
美國財政部長斯科特貝森特在華盛頓特區舉行的國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行春季會議期間重申了這一信息，他表示，“這是一個達成重大協議的機會。”

美元新聞

川普放棄解僱聯準會主席鮑威爾的威脅，美元飆升

美元兌主要貨幣週三大幅上漲，因為在美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近的攻擊事件後，美國總統唐納德·特朗普不再威脅要解僱他，投資者鬆了一口氣。
本週市場一直在努力應對這樣一種觀點：在復活節假期期間，川普多次攻擊鮑威爾自 1 月總統就任以來未降息，聯準會的獨立性可能受到威脅。
但在周二晚些時候，川普似乎退縮了。

川普週二在橢圓形辦公室告訴記者：“我無意解僱他。” “我希望看到他在降低利率方面採取更積極的態度。”
這使得美元在周三亞洲交易時段飆升，兌日圓上漲 0.75% 至 142.68，兌瑞士法郎上漲 0.7% 至 0.8249。歐元兌美元下跌0.49%，至1.1363美元。
週二，美元兌歐元和瑞士法郎的交易價格接近多年低點，而日圓則觸及七個月高點，因為投資者因擔心貿易緊張局勢和川普對聯準會的攻擊而拋售美國資產。
川普和美國財政部長斯科特貝森特週三發表的評論也提振了市場人氣，他們認為中美貿易緊張局勢可能會緩和，與中國達成的任何貿易協議都可能「大幅」降低關稅。
城市指數公司高級市場分析師馬特辛普森表示，“川普明顯轉變立場，這肯定讓人鬆了一口氣……這有助於支撐美元，因為人們押注他（鮑威爾）不會被更溫和的人取代。”
“但貿易是這裡更大的問題——關稅如何發揮作用將決定美國經濟，進而決定美國利率的走向。”

根據一位在摩根大通會議上聽過貝森特向投資者演講的人士透露，貝森特表示，雙方都不認為現狀可持續，並補充說，川普政府的目標不是讓世界兩大經濟體脫鉤。
同時，川普表示樂觀，認為與中國的貿易協定可以「大幅」降低關稅。他說，達成協議將降低中國商品的關稅，這意味著最終協議的關稅稅率不會「接近」目前的水平。但他補充說「不會是零」。
Pepperstone 研究主管 Chris Weston 表示，川普對鮑威爾的立場應該在某種程度上緩解了人們對罷免聯準會主席的重大政策失誤的擔憂。
“市場越來越習慣於總統的即興言論，然後又改變立場，好像這從來都不是什麼大問題。”

Market Commentary

Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index

Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”

Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.

Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”