2025/8/14

黃金新聞

中國黃金市場七月降溫

世界黃金協會 (WGC) 中國區研究主管 Ray Jia 表示，中國 黃金市場反映出 7 月份價格相對穩定，ETF 出現資金流出，期貨繼續降溫，而進口量則經歷了 2021 年以來最疲軟的上半年。
賈躍亭指出，7月金價僅小漲。
他表示：「通膨擔憂加劇以及其他各種風險蓋過了美元走強的影響，導致金價小幅上漲：倫敦金銀市場協會（LBMA）美元計價的黃金價格環比上漲0.3%，而人民幣計價的上海黃金價格（SHAUPM）上漲0.5%，這主要歸因於人民幣兌幣兌2%。
受季節性因素影響，批發需求也略有成長。

賈躍亭寫道：「7月份，上海黃金交易所的黃金提取量總計93噸，環比小幅增加3噸，同比小幅增加4噸。」「如下圖所示，環比增長主要是季節性因素：金飾需求往往會在第三季度回暖。同時，我們認為，由於實物黃金投資者抓住了當前價格穩定的機會，金條銷售回滾黃金需求的成本也推動了。
不過，他警告稱，7 月的數據遠低於 10 年平均水平，這凸顯了今年整體批發需求疲軟，尤其是珠寶業。

「正如我們在第二季度黃金需求趨勢中所指出的，在國內金價達到前所未有的水平的情況下，中國黃金需求的分化仍在持續：雖然黃金投資需求持續飆升，但以噸位計算的金飾消費卻急劇下降，給黃金珠寶商的補貨活動帶來了壓力，而補貨是上海黃金交易所黃金撤離的主要部分，」他表示。
同時，中國ETF流量再次轉為負值。
「7月份，中國黃金ETF淨流出24億元人民幣（3.25億美元），」賈躍亭表示，「由於這些資金流出以及金價持平，其總資產管理規模小幅下降1%，至1510億元人民幣（210億美元）。總持倉量減少3噸，至197噸。」

美元新聞

聯準會降息預期升溫，美元低迷

由於交易員加大對聯準會下個月恢復降息的押注，美元兌歐元和英鎊週四跌至數週低點附近。
聯準會寬鬆政策預期不斷上升，加上機構加密貨幣投資不斷增加，推動比特幣價格創下新高。
歐元兌美元小幅上漲至 1.1713 美元，接近週三創下的 7 月 28 日高點 1.1730 美元。

英鎊自7月24日以來首次升至1.3586美元。美元兌日圓下跌0.3%，至146.95日圓。
由於勞動力市場出現降溫跡象，川普總統的關稅措施尚未顯著增加價格壓力，聯準會近期的言論總體上變得更加溫和。
倫敦證券交易所的數據顯示，交易員認為聯準會在 9 月 17 日降息幾乎是肯定的，甚至認為大幅降息半個百分點的可能性約為 7%。
Capital.com 分析師 Kyle Rodda 表示：“對於市場而言，美聯儲 9 月份是否降息甚至不是問題，問題在於降息幅度。”
“勞動力市場出現下滑跡象，促使期貨市場在年底前消化一系列降息預期。”

週三，財政部長斯科特·貝森特呼籲“一系列降息”，並表示美聯儲可能以降息半個百分點來啟動政策利率寬鬆政策。
川普多次批評聯準會主席鮑威爾未能儘早降低利率。
美元走弱、美國貨幣政策受到政治幹預的擔憂以及聯準會放鬆政策前景下投資者風險偏好上升等因素共同推動比特幣價格創下 7 月 14 日以來的首個歷史新高，在最新一輪交易中一度高達 123,674.71 美元。

Market Commentary

Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index

Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”

Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.

Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”