2024/11/20

黃金新聞

透過先進的圖表技術揭示黃金市場趨勢

黃金市場最近展現了非凡的彈性和潛力。在經歷週四盤中低點 2,541.50 美元後，市場出現顯著復甦。週五小幅下跌僅 3.20 美元，隨後黃金期貨價格飆升，推動價格上漲。昨天交易時段開盤價為 2,571 美元，收盤價為 2,616 美元，日漲幅接近 49 美元。今天看漲勢頭仍在繼續，交易員將價格進一步推高 18.30 美元。

截至美國東部時間下午 4:15，12 月黃金期貨交易價格為 2,634.60 美元，漲幅約為 0.71%，令人印象深刻。最近的價格走勢顯示市場情緒可能轉變，促使交易員和分析師仔細研究潛在趨勢。
技術分析依靠各種圖表方法來解釋市場趨勢，每種方法都提供對價格動態的獨特見解。三種主要的圖表技術因其可視化市場趨勢的能力而脫穎而出：條形圖、燭台圖和複雜的 Heikin Ashi 圖。
標準長條圖代表了最基本的價格視覺化方法。它使用垂直線捕捉交易時段的最高價和最低價，左側和右側的水平線表示開盤價和收盤價。這種方法提供了價格變動的直接表示，使交易者能夠快速評估當天的交易範圍。
Heikin Ashi 圖表代表了技術分析的複雜演進。這種圖表技術源自日文術語“Heikin”，意思是平均，“Ashi”指速度，為理解市場動態提供了一種獨特的方法。

根本差別在於開盤價的計算方式。與傳統方法不同，Heikin Ashi 圖表從前一根蠟燭的中點得出開盤價。這種創新方法創造了更平滑、更平均的價格變動表現。
在分析潛在的市場反轉時，Heikin Ashi 圖的真正威力變得顯而易見。交易者可以透過微妙但重要的視覺線索來識別關鍵趨勢變化：
燭體尺寸的收縮是潛在趨勢轉變的關鍵指標。

美元新聞

美元走高，避險貨幣的提振作用消退

俄羅斯宣布降低核打擊門檻，美元、瑞士法郎和日圓等避險貨幣初步提振，美元指數週二上漲在俄羅斯和美國官員發表評論後，這種影響逐漸消失。
莫斯科表示，烏克蘭首次使用美國ATACMS飛彈襲擊俄羅斯領土，俄羅斯認為這次攻擊是戰爭第1000天以來敵對行動的大幅增加。
普丁批准了對俄羅斯核子理論的修改，此前兩名美國官員和一位熟悉這項決定的消息人士周日表示，美國總統拜登政府將允許烏克蘭使用美國製造的武器深入俄羅斯境內進行打擊。

衡量美元兌一籃子貨幣的美元指數在盤中觸及高點106.63後上漲0.03%至106.25，歐元下跌0.12%至1.0586美元。
俄羅斯外交部長謝爾蓋·拉夫羅夫表示，該國將“盡一切可能”避免核戰爆發，同時表示贊同德國週一不向烏克蘭提供遠程導彈的決定，稱其為“核戰爭”，市場最初的反應有所減弱。
此外，美國表示，沒有看到任何理由調整自己的核態勢以應對。

外匯與貴金屬總監埃里克·布雷加(Erik Bregar) 表示：「拉夫羅夫發表評論後，我們看到情況出現逆轉，美國也不會回應俄羅斯核理論的這一變化，這也對這裡的情緒有所平靜起到了一定作用。
「連續三週的過度槓桿多頭頭寸和地緣政治風險並沒有消失，外面的世界仍然是一個瘋狂、危險的世界。”
日圓兌美元匯率上漲 0.91%，維持在 1 美元兌 154.68 美元的水準。日圓兌歐元最後上漲 0.11%，至 163.74，此前升至六週高點 161.50。
美元兌日圓自10月初以來已上漲9%至156.74，上周自7月以來首次突破156關口，引發日本當局可能再次出手支撐的可能性貨幣。

Market Commentary

Gold shines as the US dollar is being treated like monopoly money

The gold market continues to consolidate near its record above $2,750 an ounce. Despite the precious metal’s 33% rally so far this year, one analyst says this is still the calm before the storm, and now is the time for investors to be overweight in commodities, specifically gold.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Robert Minter, Director of ETF Strategy at abrdn, advised that investors should ignore potential short-term market volatility and focus on the bigger picture: interest rates are heading lower.
At the same time, lower interest rates and stubborn inflation pressures mean that real interest rates could fall faster than some expect. Minter added that, in this environment, investors should be overweight in commodities, with a specific allocation to gold.

Minter noted that traditionally, this environment has been favorable for gold, yet many investors are still choosing to sit on the sidelines. He pointed out that underwhelming investor interest is one of the biggest bullish factors he sees supporting long-term gold prices.
Minter highlighted that through 2023 and most of this year, institutional and retail investors have been liquidity providers, as they have sold their gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He explained that the market was able to absorb the excess liquidity because central banks have been on an unprecedented buying spree.
Although central bank demand has slowed, Minter said that investor demand has started to shift, with gold-backed ETFs seeing inflows for the year.
“That dynamic where the traditional supplier of liquidity, ETF gold sellers, is gone, and these investors have actually become liquidity takers. This new market dynamic will be transformative,” he said. “It’s very rare to have structural tailwinds with falling interest rates alongside such low positioning in the marketplace. It just demonstrates how much potential there still is.”
Minter added that it is not surprising investors are starting to pay attention to gold as they seek to protect their purchasing power from rising inflation, which is partly caused by reckless government spending.

After a long campaign season, Americans will head to the polls next week to vote for a new President. Despite all the rhetoric, Minter said it is clear that both former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris regard the U.S. dollar as valuable as “Monopoly money.”
“Regardless of who wins, both candidates have been ignoring the basic laws of economics,” he said. “Both will be fiscally irresponsible.”
In a world drowning in debt, Minter said he expects a Democratic sweep to be the most bullish for gold, as a full sweep of Congress and the White House would likely usher in a new round of government spending.
While rising debt and consumer prices will continue to support gold prices through the last two months of the year and into 2025, Minter noted that the precious metal is more than just an inflation hedge.
Minter said he is also bullish on gold because a new U.S. President is unlikely to ease global tensions.
Looking to year-end, Minter said he could see gold prices trading around $2,800 an ounce, slightly higher than current prices. He added that the market could easily reach $3,000 an ounce in 2025.