2025/12/12

黃金新聞

白銀價格飆升，帶動黃金價格上漲

週四美國午盤交易時段，黃金價格大幅上漲，得益於白銀市場強勁的日內漲勢，白銀價格再創新高。這兩種貴金屬都獲得強勁的技術性買盤支撐，並受益於聯準會出人意料的鴿派立場。美元指數今日大幅下跌，跌至六週低點，也提振了貴金屬的買盤興趣。 2月黃金期貨價格上漲65.10美元，至每盎司4,289.50美元。 3月白銀期貨價格上漲2.80美元，至每盎司63.82美元，盤中一度觸及每盎司64.03美元的歷史新高。

聯準會公開市場委員會（FOMC）週三下午宣布降息0.25%，完全符合市場預期，也是FOMC會議連續第三次降息0.25個百分點。 FOMC以9比3的投票結果決定將基準聯邦基金利率調降0.25個百分點，至3.5%-3.75%的區間。 FOMC的聲明暗示，聯準會何時再次降息存在更大的不確定性。聯準會出人意料地宣布，將從週五開始每月購買400億美元的國債，此舉旨在透過重建金融體系的儲備來進一步降低短期融資成本。近幾個月來，貨幣市場一直在發出訊號，顯示在聯準會縮減資產負債表的同時，規模達12.6兆美元的貨幣市場正面臨越來越大的壓力。 FOMC會議結束後以及聯準會主席鮑威爾週三下午舉行記者會後，美國股指上漲，美國公債殖利率下跌，美元指數走軟，黃金和白銀價格也隨之上漲。在本週聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議召開前的幾天裡，市場普遍認為，儘管聯準會預期會降息，但其主席鮑威爾在貨幣政策議題上仍會採取更為鷹派的立場。然而，市場普遍認為，聯準會購買美國國債的鴿派舉動，掩蓋了聯準會其他任何可能被視為鷹派的言論。

今日另一個重要的外部市場消息是，原油價格走低，交易價格約為每桶57.25美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前約4.14%。
從技術層面來看，2月黃金期貨多頭的下一個上行目標是突破合約/歷史高點4,433.00美元的強勁阻力位。

美元新聞

聯準會前景黯淡，美元走軟

週四，美元走軟，兌歐元、瑞士法郎和英鎊跌至數月低點，延續了前一交易日的跌勢。此前，聯準會給出了比一些人預期更溫和的經濟展望。
瑞士國家銀行決定維持利率不變，提振了瑞士法郎。美元兌瑞士法郎下跌0.6%，至0.7947，此前一度觸及11月中旬以來的最低點。

由於美國雲端運算巨頭甲骨文公司（ORCL.N）公佈的財報令人失望，亞洲股市和美國股指期貨下跌，美元在早盤一度獲得支撐。開啟新分頁這再次引發了人們的擔憂，即人工智慧基礎設施成本的飆升可能會超過獲利能力。
但這種支持在美國交易時段逐漸消失。
歐元兌美元匯率最新上漲0.4%，至1.1740美元，此前一度觸及10月3日以來的最高水準。
英鎊兌美元匯率當日持平於 1.3387 美元，此前一度觸及近兩個月來的最高水平。
美元兌日圓也走弱，下跌0.3%至155.61日圓。

聯準會週三將利率下調了25 個基點，但由於這項舉措在預期之中，市場反應更反映了更廣泛的訊息傳遞、預測和投票分歧。
「市場對聯準會會議的預期偏向鷹派，我認為（聯準會主席鮑威爾）鮑威爾並沒有特別鴿派，但他確實為進一步降息留下了餘地，」瑞銀集團駐紐約外匯策略師瓦西里·謝列布里亞科夫表示。
這與澳洲央行行長和一位有影響力的歐洲央行政策制定者所傳遞的訊息形成了鮮明對比，他們暗示下一步將升息。
「我們看到美國以外的市場，如澳洲、加拿大，甚至歐洲，都出現了相當激進、鷹派的預期重新定價——就連歐洲央行的預期也更加鷹派，這似乎也得到了歐洲央行一些評論的證實，」謝列布里亞科夫說。
“所以，聯準會的立場比預期略微偏鴿派，但聯準會與其他G10國家央行的立場也形成了鮮明對比，後者的預期正變得更加鷹派。”

Market Commentary

Gold remains on the path to $4,000 as the US dollar weakens

Gold prices surged to a one-month high above $3,400 an ounce Thursday, supported by persistent U.S. dollar weakness. Analysts at Bank of America expect the rally to continue, maintaining their forecast that the yellow metal will hit $4,000 an ounce by the first half of 2026.
In a report published last week, the bank said falling interest rates and a weaker dollar will underpin the metal’s gains.
“Potential rate cuts amid increasing inflation create fertile ground for dollar depreciation,” analysts wrote. “Rate cuts in an environment of continued elevated inflation would, in all likelihood, push the precious metal higher.”

Spot gold last traded at $3,417.10 an ounce, up 0.64% on the day. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index last traded at 97.81 points, down 0.32% on the day.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as soon as September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders have nearly fully priced in a 25-basis-point move, with further easing possible in October and December.
“Recent US data have shifted our view on rates to the downside,” BofA said, pointing to softening labor market trends. “Recent cooling employment data, a narrowing in the breadth of employment growth & other signs of labor market moderation may support a shift the Fed's risk assessment.”
The bank added that political pressure on the Fed, including criticism from President Donald Trump, could weigh further on the dollar.
“Risks to Fed independence are well recognized, but the market now needs to contemplate the implications of institutional erosion at statistical agencies as well,” analysts said.

BofA warned that higher inflation could temporarily lift the dollar as markets scale back easing bets. Economists expect Friday’s core PCE index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—to show a 2.8% annual gain, unchanged from June.
However, Bank of America expects that any rally in the U.S. dollar will be sold.
“Should inflation data continue to come in on the sticky side, leading the Fed to push back more assertively on easing expectations, the USD could experience another relief rally, though we would view such an event as short-lived,” the analysts said.