2025/6/3

黃金新聞

黃金、白銀因避險需求再度回升而強勁上漲

週一美國午盤，黃金和白銀價格大幅上漲，金價創下三週新高，白銀價格創下兩個月新高。隨著全球兩大經濟體之間的貿易緊張局勢再次加劇，避險需求在本週交易開始成為焦點。美元指數走低和原油價格穩定上漲也利好貴金屬的外部市場。 8月黃金期貨最新上漲86.30美元，至3,401.90美元。 7月白銀期貨最新上漲1.566美元，至34.59美元。

川普總統上週末指責中國違反了近期達成的貿易協議，避險情緒在本週交易開始更加強烈。川普也表示，美國本週將提高鋼鐵和鋁的關稅。 《巴倫周刊》今日頭條寫道：“中美貿易談判陷入僵局。”
其他新聞方面，摩根大通執行長傑米戴蒙在一個經濟論壇的演講中警告稱，除非美國採取措施解決其不斷攀升的國家債務問題，「否則債券市場將出現裂痕」。 “這肯定會發生。”

今日關鍵的外部市場表現為美元指數穩定走低。紐約商品交易所原油期貨價格穩定上漲，目前交易價格約為每桶62.75美元。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前為4.454%。
從技術面來看，8月黃金期貨多頭擁有穩固的近期技術優勢。多頭的下一個上行價格目標是收盤價高於3,477.30美元的堅固阻力位。

美元新聞

貿易戰拖累美國經濟，美元維持近六週低點

由於唐納德·特朗普總統政府發動的貿易戰造成損害，美國經濟出現脆弱跡象，美元週二跌至六週低點。
儘管全球股市在川普關稅威脅反覆無常的背景下已普遍回升，但美元仍穩固地支撐著它。未來幾天美國公佈的製造業和就業數據，或許會進一步顯示貿易不確定性對全球最大經濟體的影響。

從週三開始，美國對進口鋼鐵和鋁的關稅將翻倍至 50%，川普政府預計各國將在同日的貿易談判中提交最佳報價。
「整體來看，貿易緊張局勢並未真正改善，美元也普遍受到重創，」澳洲國民銀行高級外匯策略師羅德里戈·卡特里爾表示。 “有趣的是，澳元和紐元這次表現良好。”
衡量美元兌六種主要貨幣匯率的美元指數在觸及4月底以來最低的98.58後基本持平，當時該指數跌至三年低點。美元兌日圓匯率報142.71，接近一週低點。
歐元兌美元匯率一度觸及六週高點1.1454美元，目前基本持平於1.1446美元。本週晚些時候，市場將關注歐洲央行的利率決議及其後續前景。
紐西蘭元兌美元上漲0.1%，至0.6045美元，創年內新高。澳幣兌美元基本持平，報0.64951美元。

美元指數週一下跌0.8%，先前數據顯示美國5月製造業連續第三個月萎縮，且關稅問題導致供應商交貨時間延長。目前市場關注點轉向週二公佈的美國工廠訂單數據，以及本週稍後公佈的就業數據。
美元上周有所喘息，在與歐盟的貿易談判重回正軌且美國貿易法庭阻止了川普的大部分關稅後，美元上漲了 0.3%。
上訴法院一天後恢復了這些關稅，川普政府表示，如果在法庭上敗訴，還有其他途徑來實施這些關稅。
財政擔憂也引發了廣泛的「拋售美國」論調，導致近幾個月來從股票到美國國債的美元資產價格下跌。

Market Commentary

Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index

Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”

Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.

Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”