2024/11/21

黃金新聞

黃金將回吐 250 美元的選舉溢價

法國興業銀行 (Société) 分析師表示，黃金在美國大選前夕實現了預期回報，雖然長期驅動因素依然存在，但貴金屬可能在短期內稍事休息將軍。
他們在 11 月 19 日發布的最新《2025 年展望——全球資產配置》中寫道：「黃金最近與美國實際利率和美元強勢等傳統驅動因素脫節。」圍繞美國大選的不確定性以及金價溢價的累積。現在選舉已經結束，關鍵問題是黃金的短期和長期前景如何。

分析師表示，美國大選前金價每盎司 250 美元的 上漲並​​不符合通常的推動因素，而且額外的溢價現在正在消失。他們表示：“隨著美國大選的結束，黃金正逐漸與美元的強勁升值重新聯繫起來，而10月和11月觀察到的實際利率上升開始對金價施加下行壓力。”
分析師寫道：“多頭投機性期貨頭寸開始從過度擴張的水平被清算，我們預計這種情況將在短期內持續下去。” 「這應該會導致選舉溢價部分消退，並會導致金價在短期內走軟。長期驅動因素，即央行大量購買黃金、美國公共債務不斷增加、地緣政治風險增加以及兩極分化帶來的全球不確定性，都表明對黃金的持續支撐。

黃金和美國股市實際上是今年法國興業銀行多元資產投資組合（SGMAP）強勁回報的關鍵組成部分。
他們寫道：“SGMAP 投資組合實現了兩位數的回報，同時表現出個位數的波動性。” 「我們對美國股市和黃金的增持立場對業績有所幫助。展望未來，我們繼續看好股票、黃金和公司債。在增加政府債券配置之前，我們等待更好的切入點。

美元新聞

美元走高，避險貨幣的提振作用消退

俄羅斯宣布降低核打擊門檻，美元、瑞士法郎和日圓等避險貨幣初步提振，美元指數週二上漲在俄羅斯和美國官員發表評論後，這種影響逐漸消失。
莫斯科表示，烏克蘭首次使用美國ATACMS飛彈襲擊俄羅斯領土，俄羅斯認為這次攻擊是戰爭第1000天以來敵對行動的大幅增加。
普丁批准了對俄羅斯核子理論的修改，此前兩名美國官員和一位熟悉這項決定的消息人士周日表示，美國總統拜登政府將允許烏克蘭使用美國製造的武器深入俄羅斯境內進行打擊。

衡量美元兌一籃子貨幣的美元指數在盤中觸及高點106.63後上漲0.03%至106.25，歐元下跌0.12%至1.0586美元。
俄羅斯外交部長謝爾蓋·拉夫羅夫表示，該國將“盡一切可能”避免核戰爆發，同時表示贊同德國週一不向烏克蘭提供遠程導彈的決定，稱其為“核戰爭”，市場最初的反應有所減弱。
此外，美國表示，沒有看到任何理由調整自己的核態勢以應對。

外匯與貴金屬總監埃里克·布雷加(Erik Bregar) 表示：「拉夫羅夫發表評論後，我們看到情況出現逆轉，美國也不會回應俄羅斯核理論的這一變化，這也對這裡的情緒有所平靜起到了一定作用。
「連續三週的過度槓桿多頭頭寸和地緣政治風險並沒有消失，外面的世界仍然是一個瘋狂、危險的世界。”
日圓兌美元匯率上漲 0.91%，維持在 1 美元兌 154.68 美元的水準。日圓兌歐元最後上漲 0.11%，至 163.74，此前升至六週高點 161.50。
美元兌日圓自10月初以來已上漲9%至156.74，上周自7月以來首次突破156關口，引發日本當局可能再次出手支撐的可能性貨幣。

Market Commentary

Gold shines as the US dollar is being treated like monopoly money

The gold market continues to consolidate near its record above $2,750 an ounce. Despite the precious metal’s 33% rally so far this year, one analyst says this is still the calm before the storm, and now is the time for investors to be overweight in commodities, specifically gold.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Robert Minter, Director of ETF Strategy at abrdn, advised that investors should ignore potential short-term market volatility and focus on the bigger picture: interest rates are heading lower.
At the same time, lower interest rates and stubborn inflation pressures mean that real interest rates could fall faster than some expect. Minter added that, in this environment, investors should be overweight in commodities, with a specific allocation to gold.

Minter noted that traditionally, this environment has been favorable for gold, yet many investors are still choosing to sit on the sidelines. He pointed out that underwhelming investor interest is one of the biggest bullish factors he sees supporting long-term gold prices.
Minter highlighted that through 2023 and most of this year, institutional and retail investors have been liquidity providers, as they have sold their gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He explained that the market was able to absorb the excess liquidity because central banks have been on an unprecedented buying spree.
Although central bank demand has slowed, Minter said that investor demand has started to shift, with gold-backed ETFs seeing inflows for the year.
“That dynamic where the traditional supplier of liquidity, ETF gold sellers, is gone, and these investors have actually become liquidity takers. This new market dynamic will be transformative,” he said. “It’s very rare to have structural tailwinds with falling interest rates alongside such low positioning in the marketplace. It just demonstrates how much potential there still is.”
Minter added that it is not surprising investors are starting to pay attention to gold as they seek to protect their purchasing power from rising inflation, which is partly caused by reckless government spending.

After a long campaign season, Americans will head to the polls next week to vote for a new President. Despite all the rhetoric, Minter said it is clear that both former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris regard the U.S. dollar as valuable as “Monopoly money.”
“Regardless of who wins, both candidates have been ignoring the basic laws of economics,” he said. “Both will be fiscally irresponsible.”
In a world drowning in debt, Minter said he expects a Democratic sweep to be the most bullish for gold, as a full sweep of Congress and the White House would likely usher in a new round of government spending.
While rising debt and consumer prices will continue to support gold prices through the last two months of the year and into 2025, Minter noted that the precious metal is more than just an inflation hedge.
Minter said he is also bullish on gold because a new U.S. President is unlikely to ease global tensions.
Looking to year-end, Minter said he could see gold prices trading around $2,800 an ounce, slightly higher than current prices. He added that the market could easily reach $3,000 an ounce in 2025.