2025/4/25

黃金新聞

黃金從大幅拋售中強勁反彈

週四美國午盤，金價大幅上漲，擺脫了周三的大幅下跌，出現良好的修正性反彈。儘管美國股指繼續上漲，但多頭仍趁機買入，並保持了今天的漲幅。 6 月黃金價格最新上漲 48.70 美元，至 3,342.70 美元。五月白銀價格最新下跌 0.067 美元，至 33.48 美元。

美國股市指數在午盤前穩步上漲，延續了周二和周三的大幅上漲勢頭。大幅上漲改善了整個市場投資者的風險偏好。川普及其政府官員本週發表了一系列評論，包括今天的更多評論，表明中美貿易關係可能正在解凍。川普表示，美國和中國目前正在進行談判。
隔夜消息稱，中國表示將於週五向金融體系注入流動性，這意味著其貨幣政策將略微放鬆。

今日外圍市場關鍵看美元指數走低。 Nymex 原油期貨價格略有上漲，交易價格約為每桶 62.50 美元。據報道，歐佩克正在考慮在六月提高原油產量。基準10年期美國公債殖利率目前為4.319%。
從技術面來看，六月黃金期貨多頭擁有穩固的整體近期技術優勢。多頭的下一個上行價格目標是收盤價高於合約高點 3,509.90 美元的堅固阻力位。

美元新聞

美元漲勢消退

美元週四全線回落，因為繼前一天出現短暫的樂觀情緒之後，投資者對美中貿易戰缺乏進展的悲觀情緒再次顯現。
美國總統川普收回解僱聯準會主席鮑威爾的威脅，並似乎軟化了對中國的立場，隨後美元等美國資產週三出現上漲。
美國財政部長貝森特（Scott Bessent）在另一場演講中表示，事實上的美中貿易禁運是不可持續的，但美國不會先降低對中國商品徵收的超過 100% 的關稅。

到週四，美元漲勢已然消散。中國表示，雙方尚未就經濟和貿易問題舉行任何談判，並敦促美國如果真想解決問題，就取消所有單邊關稅措施。這使得投資者的清晰度大致與本週稍早持平。
不過，川普週四堅稱與中國的貿易談判正在進行中。 「他們今天早上開了個會，」他告訴記者，但拒絕透露他指的是誰。
StoneX 市場研究主管 Matt Weller 表示：“美國和中國對貿易的看法似乎存在著太平洋般寬闊的鴻溝。” “我認為，只要這種差距仍然存在，美元的上漲可能只是短暫的。”
日圓領漲，美元當日下跌 0.54%，至 142.700，但仍高於上週突破的 140 關口。
美元是川普斷斷續續關稅政策的最大受害者，4 月迄今下跌 4.8%，這將是自 2022 年 11 月以來的最大月度跌幅。

過去幾天，川普對鮑威爾進行一系列口頭攻擊，指責他不願降息，除非經濟數據證明降息合理，這令投資者感到震驚。
倫敦證券交易所的數據顯示，投資人紛紛撤離美元，美元兌一籃子貨幣的匯率可能創下自上世紀70年代以來最糟糕的開局。
貿易國策師戴維·莫里森表示：“所有人都希望美國引發的貿易爭端能夠緩和。”
他補充說：“(川普)對中國的態度有所緩和，呼籲他們來談判。但事實證明，一個巴掌拍不響，目前，中國領導層決定讓川普政府自食其果。”

Market Commentary

Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index

Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”

Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.

Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”