2025/8/8

黃金新聞

有關金條新關稅的報導導致金價飆升

根據《金融時報》報道，「美國對一公斤金條進口徵收關稅」。這篇重磅文章發表於美國東部時間下午 4:30 左右，稱這一消息來自美國海關邊境保護局 7 月 31 日的一封裁決函，據報道，一家瑞士黃金精煉廠在正式要求澄清哪些類型的黃金產品（如果有的話）可以免徵關稅後收到了這封裁決函。
本月初，瑞士不幸成為被徵收異常高關稅的國家之一。這些國家大多是與美國經濟貿易往來很少的小國。然而，也有一些國家在全球貿易的某些領域中扮演著重要角色，例如瑞士——全球貴金屬精煉中心。週四，瑞士對美國的進口稅上調至39%，而黃金是瑞士對美國的主要出口產品之一。

截至6月的12個月裡，瑞士向美國出口了價值615億美元的黃金。如今，這批黃金將被額外徵收240億美元的關稅。
本文探討了近期一項關稅裁決對瑞士黃金貿易的影響，並強調了瑞士貴金屬製造商和貿易商協會主席克里斯托夫·維爾德（Christoph Wild）提出的擔憂。他指出，徵收黃金關稅將對滿足美國市場黃金需求構成重大挑戰。

今年早些時候，在川普總統實施關稅政策（被稱為「解放日」）之前，交易商搶先增加了美國的黃金進口量，導致紐約商品交易所黃金大量囤積，倫敦市場出現暫時短缺。
然而，關稅公告包含對幾種商品的豁免，特別是特定類別的金條，據悉其中包括大金條。鑑於金條交易典型的三角流動模式，這一點至關重要：大金條經瑞士在倫敦和紐約市場之間流動，並在瑞士根據各自的市場偏好調整尺寸。倫敦市場青睞400金衡盎司的金條，而紐約市場則青睞公斤級的金條。
這項消息推動金價今日飆漲逾50美元。黃金期貨收在3,482.70美元，上漲50.90美元，漲幅1.48%。隨著交易者逐漸消化全球市值最高商品（23兆美元）全球供應鏈中這一新的障礙，黃金價格很可能會繼續上漲，並有可能在未來幾天創下新高。

美元新聞

美元因對美國經濟的擔憂和聯準會任命而下跌

週四，美元兌主要貨幣繼續走低，因市場對聯準會降息的預期升溫，且對黨派之爭蔓延至美國主要機構的擔憂加劇。
上週公佈的非農就業數據令人失望，導緻美元下跌，美國首次申請失業救濟人數因此受到密切關注。同時，在下週俄烏即將舉行結束戰爭的談判之前，歐元獲得支撐。

上週，唐納德·川普總統解雇了負責他不喜歡的勞動力數據的官員，人們的焦點集中在提名他填補美聯儲理事會即將出現的空缺以及下一任央行主席的候選人上。
IG 市場分析師 Tony Sycamore 表示：“所有這些因素都表明，我們看到圍繞美元的政治風險正在增加，此外，我們還看到了疲軟的數據。”
他補充道，結束烏克蘭戰爭的任何進展「都將對歐元產生積極推動作用」。
衡量美元兌一籃子主要貨幣匯率的美元指數在亞洲早盤交易中上漲 0.1%，至 98.259，而上一交易日則下跌 0.6%。
美元兌日圓匯率基本持平，報147.36。歐元兌美元匯率報1.1654，下跌近0.1%，此前曾上漲0.7%。

美國勞工部預計將報告稱，截至 8 月 2 日當週，首次申請失業救濟人數可能增加 3,000 人，達到 221,000 人。截至 7 月 26 日當週，持續申請失業救濟人數預計將略有增加。
上週五公佈的數據顯示，美國7月就業成長弱於預期，而前兩個月非農業就業人數則大幅下調，顯示勞動市場狀況急劇惡化。
根據芝加哥商品交易所集團（CME Group）的聯準會觀察工具，聯邦基金期貨交易員目前預期聯準會9月會議上降息25個基點的可能性為94%，高於一週前的48%。整體而言，交易員預計今年聯準會將降息60.5個基點。
白宮官員週三表示，川普最快可能在下週與俄羅斯領導人普丁會面，因為美國繼續向莫斯科施壓，要求結束烏克蘭戰爭。

Market Commentary

Spot gold holds near $3,220/oz after New York manufacturing index

Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved this month following last month’s dramatic decline into contractionary territory, according to the latest figures published by the New York Federal Reserve.
The regional central bank announced on Tuesday that its Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -8.1 in April, after posting a -20 print in March. The data was better than expectations, as consensus forecasts called for a smaller improvement to -12.4.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State in April,” the report said. “New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand. Employment was little changed, while the average workweek moved lower.”
“Input price increases and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years,” the Fed noted. “Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey.”

Gold prices saw some volatility in the moments after the 8:30 am EST release, but quickly returned close to the $3,220 level they were trading at beforehand. Spot gold last traded at $3,220.22 per ounce for a gain of 0.30% on the session.
The components of the report showed conditions improved in most areas of the region’s manufacturing sector.
“The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments,” the report said. “Unfilled orders edged up slightly. The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.”
“The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked,” they added.

Both price indexes rose for the fourth consecutive month, however, to their highest levels in more than two years. “[T]he prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7,” the report said.
And manufacturers also turned sharply pessimistic in April. “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” they wrote. “The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.”