2024/5/8

黃金新聞

黃金、白銀溫和下檔修正

週二美國午盤交易中，黃金和白銀價格在周一大幅上漲後出現修正性回調，小幅下跌。當天美元指數走強是一種溫和看跌的「外部市場」力量，不利於貴金屬市場多頭。 6 月期金最後下跌 10.00 美元，至 2,321.30 美元。 7 月白銀最後下跌 0.089 美元，至 27.525 美元。

週二，在以色列表示已經控制了靠近埃及邊境的加薩走廊南部城市拉法的部分地區後，風險偏好並未受到太大影響，至少目前還沒有。以色列在加薩加強軍事行動之際，人們對以色列和哈馬斯之間可能即將實現停火抱有更好的希望。
今天主要外部市場美元指數小幅走高。紐約商業交易所 (Nymex) 原油價格接近穩定，交易價格約為每桶 78.50 美元。基準 10 年期美國公債殖利率為 4.429%。

技術上，6月黃金期貨多頭具有整體近期技術優勢。然而，每日長條圖上的價格下跌趨勢仍然存在。多頭的下一個上行價格目標是收盤價突破堅固阻力位 2,400.00 美元。空頭的下一個近期下行價格目標是推動期貨價格跌破 2,250.00 美元的堅實技術支撐位。第一個阻力位是本週高點 2,341.90 美元，然後是 2,350.00 美元。第一個支撐位是 2,300.00 美元，然後是上週的低點 2,285.20 美元。
7 月白銀期貨多頭具有整體近期技術優勢。每日長條圖上的價格下降趨勢已停止。白銀多頭的下一個上行價格目標是收盤價高於堅實的技術阻力位 29.00 美元。空頭的下一個下行價格目標是收盤價低於上週低點 26.255 美元的堅實支撐位。

財經新聞

日圓疲軟，美元重拾動力

美元週三重回領先地位，繼早些​​時候因美聯儲今年降息的押注而遭受損失後，美元小幅上漲，而日元則跌向155美元兌155美元的水平，並保持了乾預風險來自東京高中。
受北京進一步政策刺激提振經濟的希望推動，離岸人民幣從上週觸及的三個多月高點進一步回落。最後為 7.2247 兌 1 美元。

日圓匯率最後變化不大，為 1 美元兌換 154.75 美元，遠離上週觸及的 151.86 美元峰值，原因是日本當局疑似進行幹預以支撐不斷下滑的貨幣。
分析師表示，鑑於美國和日本之間仍然存在巨大的利差，東京的任何干預都只能暫時緩解日圓的趨勢。
日本央行行長上田一夫週三表示，央行將在指導貨幣政策時仔細審查日圓走勢對通膨的影響，而該國財務大臣鈴木俊一則再次警告稱，當局已準備好應對貨幣市場過度波動的走勢。
“如果我們看到美元/日元突然大幅上漲，那麼我預計他們會進入市場以支撐日元。但如果我們繼續看到美元/日元逐漸上漲，我懷疑他們會介入，但顯然存在風險，”澳洲聯邦銀行貨幣策略師卡羅爾·孔（Carol Kong）表示。
歐元和紐西蘭元分別小幅下跌 0.02% 至 1.0752 美元和 0.6000 美元。

美元兌一籃子貨幣穩定在105.41，距離上週觸及的大約一個月低點有一段距離。
投資人繼續關注聯準會降息的步伐和時機，這可能會推動貨幣走勢，最新的美國就業數據弱於預期，加上聯準會的寬鬆傾向
儘管明尼阿波利斯聯邦儲備銀行主席尼爾·卡什卡利週二表示，現在宣布通膨肯定已經停止還為時過早，但這對降息的市場定價幾乎沒有起到任何推動作用。

Market Commentary

Expect to see some consolidation next week as gold price is unable to hold gains above $2,400

Gold and silver remain in robust uptrends, but investors should prepare to see prices consolidate next week as its recent momentum appears to have peaked, according to some analysts.
Both gold and silver saw renewed volatility on Friday as the precious metals could not hold their significant gains early in the day. At one point, gold prices were up more than 4% on the day, peaking at $2,448.80 an ounce. However, the yellow metal is now looking to end the week close to where it started. June gold futures last traded at $2,355.60 an ounce, up 0.4% from last Friday.
Meanwhile, silver has managed to maintain its outperformance against gold, even as it gives up similar gains Friday afternoon. Silver peaked Friday morning at $29.905 an ounce, an intra-day three-year high. However, as the dust settles, it looks to end the week holding support above $28 an ounce. May silver futures last traded at $28.105 an ounce, up 2% from last week.
Although gold could not hold its ground above $2,400 an ounce, analysts note that it remains relatively strong as it prepares to notch another record weekly close in its belt. The new record comes even as markets start to price out a potential rate cut in June after March inflation came in higher than expected.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, markets see only a 27% chance of a rate cut in June, down from a 50% price last week and 68% price a month ago. However, analysts note that although the Federal Reserve could delay the start of its easing cycle, it is unlikely they will be raising interest rates again, which means that real interest rates can still move lower, a positive environment for gold.

While gold remains well supported, some analysts have said the rally is becoming over-extended.
"I think the momentum is still strong, but at the same time, it is not right to be greedy, and given the stellar rally we have seen in the gold price, we think it is wise to book some profit," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
Philip Newman, Director and Founding Partner of Metals Focus, also said it might be a good idea for investors to take some of their profits off the table. He said the gold market is due for some consolidation after this unprecedented run in record territory.
"We don't expect to see a significant pullback, but we do think a short-term correction makes sense at these levels," he said.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that although the price momentum is extreme, he is looking through the recent volatility and is focused on the broader trends driving prices.
He noted that gold remains well supported in part due to rising inflation fears and growing uncertainty over the health of the global economy.
"Right now, the market is looking for something to break before it has actually broken, and it leaves the market exposed to a correction. Am I going to take chips off the table? I don't think so as I'm in it for the long run," he said. "I am still wondering what may happen if the economic data starts to weaken and inflation remains bid. That would justify gold's performance."
While everyone focuses on gold in U.S. dollar terms, it has made record gains against all major currencies. Hansen pointed out that gold is up 20% against the euro, 22% against the Australian dollar, and 26% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategies and forex at Tastylive.com, said that while he likes gold and silver, he will not be chasing the market at current levels. He added that he is looking to buy on dips.
"The Federal Reserve has been telling us that their next move is going to be a cut even though we see solid economic growth and stubborn inflation. This will drive real yields higher, and that is a positive environment for gold and silver," he said.